泛欧交易所股票指数回报的效率漂移

IF 0.5 Q4 BUSINESS International Journal of Business Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI:10.55802/ijb.027(2).003
L. P. Gomes, V. Soares, S. Gama, J. Matos
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文旨在评估和检验Euronext股票指数回报中的长期记忆,以寻找反驳随机漫步假设的分形动力学。通过重新标度范围和趋势波动分析估计的赫斯特指数表明,除了DFA的CAC 40之外,所有市场都以持久性的形式存在长期记忆。但是,重新缩放范围测试既不拒绝不存在长依赖项,也不拒绝存在短依赖项。相反,分数差分测试支持PSI 20、ISE 20和OBX指数中存在持久性。这表明,这些市场更倾向于可预测性,但也可能因不连续性而意外中断,表现出与随机游走行为不相容的动态,并为资产定价模型的效率和有效性的薄弱形式提供了证据。
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Efficiency Drifts in Euronext Stock Indexes Returns
This paper intends to assess and test long-term memory in the Euronext stock indexes returns in the search for fractal dynamics that refute the random walk hypothesis. The Hurst exponents estimated through Rescaled-Range and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis evidence long memory in the form of persistence for all markets, with the exception of CAC 40 by the DFA. However, the Rescaled-Range Tests neither reject the absence of long dependency nor reject the existence of short dependency. On the contrary, the Fractional Differencing Test supports the presence of persistence in the PSI 20, ISE 20 and OBX indexes. This suggests that these markets are more prone to predictability, but also trends that may be unexpectedly disrupted by discontinuities, exhibiting dynamics incompatible with random walk behavior and providing evidence against the weak form of efficiency and validity of the asset pricing models.
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