全球人口老龄化是未来的一个整体问题

Q3 Social Sciences Sotsiologicheskiy Zhurnal Pub Date : 2023-06-29 DOI:10.19181/socjour.2023.29.2.6
L. Grinin, A. Grinin, Andrey Korotayev
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文分析了21世纪全球人口老龄化的进程,它对公共生活的各个领域都产生了重大影响。人口老龄化进程对社会活动各个领域的影响将由其规模和深度决定,即由未来社会的潜在人口结构决定。与此同时,现代社会应对与这一过程相关的高风险的能力是一个有问题的问题。与人口老龄化相关的风险和问题包括经济衰退、养老金危机、照顾越来越多的残疾人和体弱者的问题、维持老年人的财政储蓄、年龄歧视问题以及老年人在危机和流行病期间的脆弱性,从而维持预期寿命以及稳定的民主甚至世界秩序。鉴于到21世纪中期,三分之二的65岁以上人口将生活在中低收入国家,这些风险和问题尤其令人关切。此外,老龄化甚至会影响到今天最贫穷的撒哈拉以南非洲国家,这些国家的人口至今还很年轻。有鉴于此,老年人的社会保障和医疗保健问题日益突出,需要采取积极措施。人口老龄化问题没有得到联合国、世界卫生组织等国际组织的足够重视;总的来说,无论是在公共领域还是在科学话语中,对这一问题的研究都是有限的。然而,即使是现在,全球老龄化也是一个极其重要的问题,我们认为它将成为未来最关键的问题。因此,如果不给予足够的重视,可能会导致负面后果,如社会紧张局势、危机和代际冲突,以及政治和社会不稳定。在这篇文章中,我们从将其视为一个问题,转变为认为它为拥有世俗智慧和经验的更成熟和年长的一代提供了新的机会的角度来处理这个过程。如今,必须在不同领域采取具体措施,必须采取特殊的长期计划,以提高老年人与健康相关的生活质量,并消除人们普遍认为老年人注定要失败的刻板印象,即你的生活已经结束。Grinin等人指出了技术的重要性,全球老龄化进程和提高预期寿命的需要可以特别刺激技术的发展。作为即将到来的技术浪潮(我们称之为控制论革命)的背景,全球老龄化可能会对劳动力节约技术产生强烈需求,并为医学领域提供强有力的刺激。后一个领域的进展将有助于延长工作年龄,提高与健康相关的(生物)生活质量。
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Aging of the Global Population as an Integral Problem of the Future
This article analyzes the process of global population aging, which has a significant impact on all areas of public life in the 21st century. The influence of the population aging process on various areas of social activity will be determined by its scale and depth, i.e. by the potential demographic structure of the future society. At the same time, the ability of modern society to cope with elevated risks associated with this process is a problematic matter. The risks and problems associated with population aging include economic recessions, pension crises, the issue of caring for the increasingly more numerous disabled and frail people, maintaining the financial savings of the elderly, the issue of ageism, and the vulnerability of the elderly during periods of crisis and pandemics, and consequently maintaining life expectancy as well as stable democracy and even world order. These risks and problems are of particular concern given that by the mid-21st century two thirds of people over the age of 65 will be living in medium and low income countries. Moreover, aging will affect even today’s poorest countries that are located in Sub-Saharan Africa with their populations that are still young as of today. In view of this, the problem of social security and healthcare for the elderly is becoming increasingly acute and requires implementing proactive measures. The problem of population aging does not get enough attention from such international organizations as the UN and WHO; in general, studies on this issue both in the public realm and in scientific discourse are limited. However, even now global aging is an extremely important problem, and we assume that it will become the most crucial problem in the future. Thus, not paying sufficient attention to it might lead to negative consequences such as societal tensions, crises and intergenerational conflicts, as well as political and social instability. In this article we approach the process from the perspective of transitioning from perceiving it as a problem to considering it as something that provides new opportunities associated with the more mature and older generation possessing worldly wisdom and experience. Today specific measures must be taken in different areas, and special long-term programs must be adopted to promote a higher health-related quality of life (HRQoL) for the older generation, as well as to combat the widespread stereotype of feeling doomed at an old age, the idea being that your life is over. Grinin et al. point out the importance of technologies, the development of which can be stimulated specifically by the process of global aging and the need to increase life expectancy. As a background for the forthcoming technological wave (which we refer to as the Cybernetic Revolution), global aging may create an acute demand for labor-conservation technologies, as well as provide a powerful stimulus for the field of medicine. Progress in the latter realm would help prolong working age and improve health-related (biological) quality of life.
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来源期刊
Sotsiologicheskiy Zhurnal
Sotsiologicheskiy Zhurnal Social Sciences-Social Sciences (all)
CiteScore
0.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
29
审稿时长
37 weeks
期刊介绍: “Sotsiologicheskij Zhurnal” publishes the articles on sociological disciplines. Interdisciplinary studies in sociology and related disciplines, such as social psychology, cultural studies, anthropology, ethnography, etc. — are also welcomed. The main emphasis is on the fundamental research in the field of theory, methodology and history of sociology. The regular rubric highlights the results of mass surveys and case studies. The rubric “Discussion”, which debated the controversial issues of sociological research, is regular as well. The journal publishes book reviews, and summaries, as well as lists of new books in Russian and English, which represent the main areas of interdisciplinary research in the social sciences. The journal aims to not only play samples of knowledge, considered regulatory and standards of internal expertise in the professional community, but also aims for opportunities to improve them. These rules, a tough selection and decision to print only a small portion of incoming materials allow “Sotsiologicheskij Zhurnal” contribute to improving the quality of sociological research. Submitted manuscripts should show a high integrity in problem setting, problem analysis and correspond to the journal’s thematic profile and its scientific priorities.
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