圣战恐怖袭击会导致机构信任发生变化吗?一个多地点的自然实验

IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE European Journal of Political Research Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI:10.1111/1475-6765.12612
CHRISTOF NÄGEL, AMY NIVETTE, CHRISTIAN CZYMARA
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引用次数: 0

摘要

. 先前的研究结果表明,恐怖袭击导致对机构的信任在相对短期内增加。对这种增长的解释被称为“反弹效应”,即个人对危机和威胁的反应是对政治领导人和机构的更积极的支持。尽管与调查数据相关的自然实验的数量正在增加,但这些研究仅仅代表了单一事件的案例研究,外部有效性有限。为了推进恐怖袭击对制度信任影响的准实验研究,我们提出了一种新的方法方法,通过评估在欧洲社会调查(European Social Survey)实地调查期间在一个欧洲国家发生的所有导致至少一名平民死亡的圣战恐怖袭击,并使用元分析和元回归技术结合在五个不同国家进行的八次独特自然实验的结果。这个“多地点自然实验”的结果表明,对集会假说的支持充其量是混杂的。虽然一些攻击似乎至少显著增加了某些机构信任措施(例如,荷兰2004年,法国2015年,以色列2012年),但其他攻击似乎根本没有影响(例如,德国2015年,法国2018年),甚至大幅降低了对国内政治机构的信任(俄罗斯2012年)。多水平荟萃分析的总结效应对任何制度信任结果都不显著。这些结果对于大量的健壮性测试和替代规范是健壮的。与之前的研究相比,欧洲的许多证据似乎都是基于“异常”的案例研究,比如2015年法国《查理周刊》袭击案。因此,我们的研究结果对恐怖袭击后集会效应在不同地理区域的无限制普适性提出了质疑
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Do jihadist terrorist attacks cause changes in institutional trust? A multi-site natural experiment

Results from previous research suggest that terrorist attacks lead to relatively short-term increases in trust in institutions. The explanation for this increase is known as the ‘rally effect’, whereby individuals respond to crises and threats with more positive support for political leaders and institutions. Even though the number of related natural experiments with survey data is increasing, these studies merely represent case studies of single incidents with limited external validity. To advance quasi-experimental research on the effects of terrorist attacks on institutional trust, we propose a new methodological approach by assessing all jihadist terrorist attacks resulting in at least one civilian death in a European country that take place during the fieldwork of the European Social Survey and combining the results of eight unique natural experiments in five different countries using meta-analytic and meta-regression techniques. The results of this ‘multi-site natural experiment’ indicate that support for the rally-hypothesis is mixed at best. While some attacks appear to significantly increase at least some measures of institutional trust (e.g., The Netherlands 2004, France 2015, Israel 2012), others seem to have no effect at all (e.g., Germany 2015, France 2018), or even substantially decrease trust in domestic political institutions (Russia 2012). Summary effects from multilevel meta-analyses are non-significant for any institutional trust outcome. These results are robust to a large number of robustness tests and alternative specifications. In comparison with previous research, it appears that a lot of the European evidence for the rally-hypothesis was based on ‘outlier’ case studies like the Charlie Hebdo attack in France, 2015. Accordingly, our results cast doubt on the unrestricted generalisability of rally effects after terrorist attacks to different geographic, political, social or historical contexts.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
10.00
自引率
5.70%
发文量
67
期刊介绍: European Journal of Political Research specialises in articles articulating theoretical and comparative perspectives in political science, and welcomes both quantitative and qualitative approaches. EJPR also publishes short research notes outlining ongoing research in more specific areas of research. The Journal includes the Political Data Yearbook, published as a double issue at the end of each volume.
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Issue Information Issue Information Correction to (When) do electoral mandates set the agenda? Government capacity and mandate responsiveness in Germany Issue Information Patterns of democracy and democratic satisfaction: Results from a comparative conjoint experiment
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