Certainty of Punishment versus Severity of Punishment

According to the standard enforcement model, key deterrence components are punishment certainty and severity. Theory predicts the relative efficacy of certainty versus severity, but empirical and experimental evidence are mixed. Our study is the first to systematically compare the effects of certainty and severity in the environmental protection context. Our empirics examine wastewater discharged by chemical manufacturing facilities permitted under the Clean Water Act. We find that when enforcement certainty and severity are high, both components effectively deter pollution, with certainty being more effective. In contrast, certainty and severity increases prove counterproductive when certainty and severity are low.