印尼棕榈油对印度的出口供应

Agro Ekonomi Pub Date : 2018-07-25 DOI:10.22146/AE.29931
Marizha Nurcahyani, M. Masyhuri, S. Hartono
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引用次数: 13

摘要

棕榈油是除大豆油、菜籽油和葵花籽油外,世界上消耗量最大的植物油之一。印度尼西亚是世界上最大的CPO生产国之一,而印度是印度尼西亚和世界上最大消费国。本研究利用2003-2015年的年度数据分析了印尼对印度CPO出口的增长率,并利用1990-2015年的年数据分析了影响印尼对印度出口CPO的因素。使用的方法是通过标准增长计算来衡量增长率的市场份额分析,以及通过误差校正模型(ECM)来了解产生短期和长期影响的因素。本研究中测试的因素包括国际CPO价格、大豆油价格、马来西亚CPO出口税和印度尼西亚CPO出口关税。分析表明,印尼对印度CPO出口增长率呈波动性,印尼CPO对印度的出口额在长期和短期内受到CPO出口关税的负面和显著影响。
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The Export Supply Of Indonesian Crude Palm Oil (CPO) To India
Palm oil is one of the world's most consumed vegetable oils other than soybean oil, canola oil and sunflower seed oil. Indonesia is one of the largest CPO producers in the world, while India is the biggest consumer in Indonesia as well as in the world. This study was conducted to analyze the rate of Indonesia’s CPO export growth to India by using the annual data from 2003 to 2015 and the factors affecting Indonesia's CPO exports to India by using the annual data from 1990 to 2015. The method used is market share analysis by standard growth calculation to measure the growth rate and Error Correction Model (ECM) method to know the factors that give short-term and long-term effects. Factors tested in this study include international CPO prices, soybean oil prices, Malaysian CPO export duty and Indonesian CPO export duty. The analysis shows that the growth rate of Indonesian CPO exports to India is fluctuate and the export volume of Indonesian CPO to India is influenced by export duty of CPO Indonesia negatively and significantly in the long-term and short-term.
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