Progressive Ideology and Support for Punitive Crime Policy: Evidence from Argentina and Brazil

Scholars commonly link citizens’ broader ideological views to their preferences for two opposing approaches to fighting crime: conservatives are believed to support punitive approaches, while progressives support preventative solutions. Yet, other studies indicate that citizens across the ideological spectrum support punitive approaches, often due to instrumental factors such as experiences with and perceptions of crime. This study examines how instrumental factors interact with ideology and determines under what circumstances progressives support punitive candidates. The results of a conjoint experiment fielded in Argentina and Brazil demonstrate that among progressives, the effect of ideology on preferences for punitive candidates is moderated by three instrumental factors: perceptions regarding 1) insecurity, 2) the ineffectiveness of social policy, and 3) gang-driven crime; there are null results regarding the role of victimization. The findings also provide evidence that conservatives prefer punitive candidates regardless of instrumental explanations. The results are validated through an analysis of AmericasBarometer data.