挽救的生命与损失的时间:概率龙卷风警报的直接社会效益

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Weather Climate and Society Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI:10.1175/wcas-d-22-0139.1
A. Ugarov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

国家气象局计划实施龙卷风概率预警系统。在本文中,我们估计和比较了龙卷风与现有的确定性和潜在的概率预警的全部社会成本。这些全部费用包括统计上损失的生命的价值以及用于避难的时间的价值。我们发现,概率龙卷风预警会降低总预期死亡人数。决策的改进也会减少避难时间的总机会成本,尽管避难总时间可能会增加。总的来说,与确定性预警相比,概率预警每年可以降低龙卷风造成的社会成本约为7600万至1.39亿美元,其中很大一部分改善来自于人员伤亡的减少。
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Lives Saved vs Time Lost: Direct Societal Benefits of Probabilistic Tornado Warnings
National Weather Service is planning to implement the system of probabilistic tornado warnings. In this paper, we estimate and compare full societal costs of tornadoes with existing deterministic and potential probabilistic warnings. These full costs include the value of statistical lives lost as well as the value of the time spent sheltering. We find that probabilistic tornado warnings would decrease total expected fatalities. The improvement in decision-making would also decrease the total opportunity cost of time spent sheltering even though the total sheltering time is likely to increase. In total, probabilistic warnings should lower societal costs of tornadoes relative to deterministic warnings by approximately $76-139 million per year with a large portion of this improvement coming from lower casualties.
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来源期刊
Weather Climate and Society
Weather Climate and Society METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
13.60%
发文量
95
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Weather, Climate, and Society (WCAS) publishes research that encompasses economics, policy analysis, political science, history, and institutional, social, and behavioral scholarship relating to weather and climate, including climate change. Contributions must include original social science research, evidence-based analysis, and relevance to the interactions of weather and climate with society.
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