Age and Social Background as Predictors of Dropout in Second Chance Education in Germany

Second chance education (SCE) has been established to offer adults the opportunity to catch up on higher qualifications, for instance the eligibility to study. SCE often suffers from high dropout rates, but little is known about the reasons. This article investigates whether dropout rates depend on family background and age, and if so, why. Data from 3278 students at an institution of SCE in Germany who entered this institution between 2000 and 2016 are analysed using logistic path modelling. The results show that the higher dropout probability of socially disadvantaged students can be traced back completely to poorer academic performance in SCE, partly associated with an unfavourable previous school career. Older students are – irrespective of their family background and despite a better academic performance – more likely to drop out than younger students. If SCE aims to reduce these dropout risks, strategies should vary for different groups of students.