Economic integration and food security – The case of the AfCFTA

The study assesses potential effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on agri-food sectors and food security in Africa. It employs the global Computable General Equilibrium model MAGNET in an ex ante analysis. The analysis has high regional and sectoral detail, representing the wide variety of African economies and trade policy strategies.

The AfCFTA lifts 1.0 million people from risk of hunger while increasing national incomes. The rise in food prices offsets the increase in household income in a few regions. Food production increases in total, but several regions reduce production while increasing imports. Non-tariff measure reductions have higher impact than tariff cuts. A group of countries could experience adverse food security effects due to the AfCFTA.