使用Gompertz模型,匈牙利自动驾驶汽车保有量的潜在增长

IF 1.9 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Production Engineering Archives Pub Date : 2023-04-26 DOI:10.30657/pea.2023.29.18
Anas Alatawneh, A. Torok
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引用次数: 4

摘要

摘要自动驾驶汽车(AV)有望为即将到来的移动性带来众多优势。这些潜在的好处和许多其他好处因AV的市场份额而异。有几篇文章用各种方法调查了AV市场份额,然而,根据市场规格,它们显示出巨大的差异。本研究的目的是根据匈牙利汽车市场的特点,计算一段时间内私人AV的采用率。该研究使用Gompertz函数,在人均GDP预测的基础上,使用人类驾驶汽车拥有数据的历史模式,实证估计了匈牙利私人自动驾驶乘用车的预测增长率。研究结果表明,在乐观和温和的情况下,匈牙利汽车市场预计将分别在2067年和2076年因电动汽车而饱和。然而,悲观的估计表明,在2100年之前不太可能出现饱和。本研究对文献的贡献是通过一种数学方法预测AVs市场渗透率和饱和年,其中模型的假设和使用的参数可以根据不同的案例研究进行修改,也可以由于技术的进步和对所研究市场的了解的提高而进行更新。
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Potential autonomous vehicle ownership growth in Hungary using the Gompertz model
Abstract Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are anticipated to bring forth a multitude of advantages for upcoming mobility.These potential benefits and many others vary substantially by the market share of AVs. There are several articles that investigated AV market share with a variety of methods, however, they show a huge variation depending on the market specifications. The aim of this research is to calculate private AV adoption rates over time depending on the Hungarian automobile market characteristics. The research empirically estimates, using the Gompertz function, the projected growth rates of private autonomous passenger vehicles in Hungary using historical patterns of human-driven vehicle ownership data on the basis of projected per capita GDP.The study's findings suggest that, in an optimistic and moderate scenario, the Hungarian car market is projected to become saturated due to AVs by 2067 and 2076, respectively. However, a pessimistic estimation indicates that saturation is unlikely to occur before 2100. This study’s contribution to the literature is through a mathematical approach that predicts AVs market penetration rate and saturation year, in which the assumptions and the used parameters of the model can be modified depending on different case studies, or they can be updated due to the advancement in technology and improvement in knowledge of the studied market.
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来源期刊
Production Engineering Archives
Production Engineering Archives Engineering-Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
CiteScore
6.10
自引率
13.00%
发文量
50
审稿时长
6 weeks
期刊最新文献
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