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Shallot Price Forecasting Models: Comparison among Various Techniques 大葱价格预测模型:各种技术的比较
Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2023-10-28 DOI: 10.30657/pea.2023.29.40
Chompoonoot Kasemset, Kanokrot Phuruan, Takron Opassuwan
Abstract Shallot is one of several horticultural products exported from Thailand to various countries. Despite an increase in shallot prices over the years, farmers face challenges in price forecasting due to fluctuations and other relevant factors. While different forecasting techniques exist in the literature, there is no universal approach due to varying problems and datasets. This study focuses on predicting shallot prices in Northern Thailand from January 2014 to December 2020. Traditional and machine learning models, including ARIMA, Holt-Winters, LSTM, and ARIMA-LSTM hybrids, are proposed. The LSTM model considers temperature and rainfall as influencing factors. Evaluation metrics include RMSE, MAE, and MAPE. Results indicate that the ARIMA-LSTM hybrid model performs best, with RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values of 10.275 Baht, 8.512 Baht, and 13.618%, respectively. Implementing this hybrid model can provide shallot farmers with advanced price information for informed decision-making regarding cultivation expansion and production management.
葱是泰国出口到世界各国的几种园艺产品之一。尽管多年来大葱价格有所上涨,但由于波动和其他相关因素,农民在价格预测方面面临挑战。虽然文献中存在不同的预测技术,但由于问题和数据集的不同,没有通用的方法。本研究的重点是预测2014年1月至2020年12月泰国北部的葱价格。提出了传统和机器学习模型,包括ARIMA、Holt-Winters、LSTM和ARIMA-LSTM混合模型。LSTM模式考虑温度和降雨作为影响因素。评估指标包括RMSE、MAE和MAPE。结果表明,ARIMA-LSTM混合模型表现最佳,RMSE、MAE和MAPE值分别为10.275、8.512和13.618%。实施这种杂交模型可以为大葱农民提供先进的价格信息,为扩大种植和生产管理提供明智的决策。
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引用次数: 0
Framework for Increasing Eco-efficiency in the Tofu Production Process: Circular Economy Approach 提高豆腐生产过程生态效率的框架:循环经济方法
Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2023-10-27 DOI: 10.30657/pea.2023.29.50
Sri Hartini, Faradhina Azzahra, Ratna Purwaningsih, Bimastyaji Surya Ramadan, Diana Puspita Sari
Abstract This research aims to design recommendations for improving the tofu production process in Sugihmanik Village. Over 30 tofu small medium enterprises (SMEs) generate solid and liquid waste, which pollutes the river. An eco-efficiency strategy was implemented and began by identifying the tofu production process. The life cycle assessment (LCA) method and the SimaPro software were used to calculate eco-cost and eco-efficiency levels. Based on the calculations, the eco-cost value per batch is USD 10.76. If 30 batches are produced daily, the eco-cost value in one of the tofu SMEs is USD 9.10. Tofu production has an eco-efficiency index (EEI) value of 0.12. This value shows that tofu products are only affordable but have yet to be sustainable. The researchers then recommend using biogas from wastewater treatment to replace rice husks and corncobs. This study also develops a circular economy framework in the tofu production system. The output is expected to suppress the discharge of water and solid waste to increase the EEI value of the tofu production process in the future.
摘要本研究旨在为Sugihmanik村豆腐生产工艺的改进设计建议。30多家豆腐中小企业产生的固体和液体废物污染了河流。实施了生态效率战略,并开始确定豆腐的生产过程。采用生命周期评价(LCA)方法和SimaPro软件计算生态成本和生态效率水平。经计算,每批产品的生态成本值为10.76美元。如果每天生产30批,其中一家豆腐中小企业的生态成本价值为9.10美元。豆腐生产的生态效率指数(EEI)为0.12。这一价值表明,豆腐产品只是价格实惠,但尚未实现可持续发展。研究人员随后建议使用废水处理产生的沼气来代替稻壳和玉米芯。本研究也发展了豆腐生产系统的循环经济架构。该产量有望抑制水和固体废物的排放,提高未来豆腐生产过程的EEI值。
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引用次数: 0
The photogrammetric approach in conical picks wear rate evaluation 圆锥镐磨损率评价中的摄影测量方法
Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2023-10-27 DOI: 10.30657/pea.2023.29.46
Krzysztof Krauze, Kamil Mucha, Tomasz Wydro, Jan Pawlik, Aleksandra Wróblewska-Pawlik
Abstract The cutting tools in mining industry are especially prone to rapid wear, since most of the rocks exhibit aggressive abrasion attributes. A typical representative of fast wearing mining end-tools is a conical pick (also known as tangential-rotary cutter). In order to decrease the premature deterioration, the manufacturers and users tend to enhance the lifespan of the tool by wide range of approaches, namely heat treatment, chemical treatment, burnishing, hardfacing etc. In order to estimate the wear rate of a given pick one has to select appropriate procedure and method of evaluation. By this time, most commonly applied method is to estimate the wear rate basing on mass loss measurements of the tools being exploited with constant cutting parameters and fixed conditions. The Authors proposed also a new method of volumetric wear assessment, basing of three-dimensional photogrammetric scanning and compared the results with the outcome of traditional mass wear evaluation of the same sets of tools. Additionally, this paper contains recommendations regarding both approaches (volumetric and mass), especially focusing on the possibilities of the new method concerning measurements of the manufactured tool.
由于大多数岩石具有侵蚀性磨损特性,采矿工业中的切削工具特别容易发生快速磨损。快磨损采矿端刀的典型代表是圆锥镐(也称为切向回转刀)。为了减少刀具的过早劣化,制造商和用户倾向于通过各种方法来延长刀具的寿命,即热处理、化学处理、抛光、堆焊等。为了对给定采煤机的磨损率进行评估,必须选择合适的评估程序和方法。目前,最常用的方法是在恒定的切削参数和固定的条件下,通过测量刀具的质量损失来估计磨损率。作者还提出了一种基于三维摄影测量扫描的体积磨损评估新方法,并将结果与传统的同一套工具的质量磨损评估结果进行了比较。此外,本文包含关于两种方法(体积和质量)的建议,特别关注关于制造工具测量的新方法的可能性。
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引用次数: 0
Company Cybersecurity System: Assessment, Risks and Expectations 公司网络安全系统:评估、风险和期望
Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2023-10-27 DOI: 10.30657/pea.2023.29.43
Aleksandra Kuzior, Hanna Yarovenko, Paulina Brożek, Natalia Sidelnyk, Anton Boyko, Tetyana Vasilyeva
Abstract The consequences of Industry 4.0 have adverse side effects on cybercrime growth, which requires creating an effective cybersecurity system for companies. Therefore, this study aims to develop a composite indicator of company cybersecurity to assess its development needs. For this purpose, the authors modified Porter’s method by constructing a superposition matrix based on the growth rates of cyber threats and risks, calculating their quantitative characteristics and a composite indicator. The computations are based on indicators for 2016-2022 characterizing cybersecurity vulnerabilities and the consequences of cyber threats: the share of companies experiencing one, six or more successful cyberattacks, considering the likely and very likely success of cyberattacks on them in the next 12 months, security threat and concern indices, the share of companies with a growing security budget affected by ransomware and experiencing a shortage of skilled IT security personnel, the cost of stolen or compromised credentials. As a result, cybersecurity needs increased significantly for 2020-2022, mainly due to digital transformation and the cyber threats growth after the COVID-19 pandemic. A comparative analysis of the proposed indicator with those characterizing the development of Industry 4.0 showed that the need for a reliable cybersecurity system is much more important than the active development of modern technologies. Spending on IT is also increasing, but not enough to meet the needs of cybersecurity development, except for the 2022 results. The proposed indicator is defined for companies worldwide, but its versatility allows the methodology to be applied to enterprises of various industries and sizes.
工业4.0的后果对网络犯罪的增长产生了不利的副作用,这就需要为公司创建一个有效的网络安全系统。因此,本研究旨在开发一个公司网络安全的综合指标来评估其发展需求。为此,作者对Porter的方法进行了改进,根据网络威胁和风险的增长率构建叠加矩阵,计算其数量特征和复合指标。计算基于2016-2022年表征网络安全漏洞和网络威胁后果的指标:考虑到在未来12个月内有可能或极有可能成功遭受网络攻击,遭遇1次、6次或更多成功网络攻击的公司所占比例;安全威胁和担忧指数;受勒索软件影响的安全预算不断增加的公司所占比例,以及遭遇熟练IT安全人员短缺的公司所占比例;因此,2020-2022年的网络安全需求大幅增加,主要原因是数字化转型和新冠肺炎大流行后网络威胁的增长。将拟议指标与工业4.0发展特征指标进行比较分析表明,对可靠的网络安全系统的需求远比现代技术的积极发展重要得多。IT支出也在增加,但除了2022年的结果外,不足以满足网络安全发展的需求。拟议的指标是为全世界的公司定义的,但其通用性使该方法可以应用于不同行业和规模的企业。
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引用次数: 0
Experimental-numerical analysis of the fracture process in smooth and notched V specimens 光滑和缺口V试样断裂过程的实验-数值分析
Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2023-10-27 DOI: 10.30657/pea.2023.29.49
Grzegorz Świt, Ihor Dzioba, Małgorzata Ulewicz, Sebastian Lipiec, Anna Adamczak-Bugno, Aleksandra Krampikowska
Abstract This paper presents the outcomes of quality tests conducted on specimens, both smooth and V-notched, subjected to uniaxial tension, which were extracted from a gas transport pipeline. The introduction of the V-notch introduced variations in the stress and strain component fields near the plane of maximum constriction, consequently leading to their failure through different mechanisms. The process included the implementation of quality management practices such as numerical modeling and simulation of the loading of the specimens using ABAQUS. The material model employed in these calculations was defined and verified to ensure quality control. Subsequent to the numerical calculations, maps of the stress and strain component fields were generated, contributing to the quality assessment of the specimens. It was determined that the quality management process for the smooth specimen identifies the initiation of failure primarily due to the normal stress component in the central region of the plane with the largest constriction. In contrast, in the V-notched specimen, quality management efforts revealed that failure initiation occurs due to the tangential stress component, and failure proceeds through the shear mechanism. These results are valuable in developing a quality-driven methodology for monitoring the operational safety of gas network pipelines, primarily based on the analysis of acoustic emission signals.
摘要本文介绍了从输气管道中抽取的光滑和v形缺口试件进行单轴拉伸的质量试验结果。v形缺口的引入引入了最大收缩面附近应力和应变分量场的变化,从而导致它们通过不同的机制破坏。该过程包括实施质量管理实践,例如使用ABAQUS对试件的加载进行数值模拟和模拟。在这些计算中使用的材料模型被定义和验证,以确保质量控制。在数值计算之后,生成了应力和应变分量场图,有助于对试件的质量进行评估。结果表明,光滑试样的质量管理过程确定了失效的开始主要是由于最大收缩平面中心区域的正应力分量。相比之下,在v形缺口试样中,质量管理工作表明,破坏是由切向应力分量引起的,破坏是通过剪切机制进行的。这些结果对于开发一种主要基于声发射信号分析的质量驱动方法来监测天然气网络管道的运行安全性具有重要价值。
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引用次数: 0
The use of quality management tools to ensure safe working conditions at CO2 laser workstations 使用质量管理工具确保CO2激光工作站的安全工作条件
Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2023-10-27 DOI: 10.30657/pea.2023.29.44
Barbara Ciecińska, Beata Oleksiak
Abstract Dynamic development of various technologies replacing existing, difficult or in various ways arduous, is the reason for replacing equipment with modern ones. New equipment may be associated with a different power supply, a different way that the construction materials are processed or the tools used, than the previous one. Then arises a need to re-examine whether the working conditions at a workplace are safe, what onerous and hazardous factors are associated with the work. An example of such a technological change could be a laser processing, when equipment using a concentrated energy stream, properly controlled, produces a specific effect on materials. However, along with the benefits of the new technology, come also many risks, such as the effects of radiation on matter and the human body, electricity, fire hazards, the problem of toxic emissions and others. This paper presents the problem of ensuring work safety at a newly commissioned CO2 laser station. Technique of brainstorming was used to identify and analyze the working conditions and types of hazards. These may be different from what was previously known, partially known, or even unconscious. Ishikawa diagram was developed and shown to be an effective tool for detailing and structuring problems in relation to safety. In the case of a technical problem, a poka-yoke solution to eliminate the hazard was proposed. Problems occurring at the workstation during machining and related to its operation were assigned, using the affinity diagram, to specific departments of the company, according to its work organization, which can significantly facilitate the management of the work and employees of the different departments in the future, in order to ensure safe and hygienic working conditions.
各种技术更新换代的动态发展,困难或以各种方式艰苦,是设备更新换代的原因。与之前的设备相比,新设备可能与不同的电源、不同的建筑材料加工方式或使用的工具相关联。然后就需要重新检查工作场所的工作条件是否安全,哪些繁重和危险的因素与工作有关。这种技术变化的一个例子可以是激光加工,当设备使用集中的能量流,适当控制,对材料产生特定的影响。然而,伴随着新技术的好处,也带来了许多风险,例如辐射对物质和人体的影响,电力,火灾危险,有毒排放物的问题等等。介绍了新投产的CO2激光站的安全生产保障问题。运用头脑风暴技术对工作条件和危险类型进行了识别和分析。这些可能不同于以前已知的,部分已知的,甚至是无意识的。石川图被开发出来,并被证明是一种有效的工具,用于详细说明和构建与安全有关的问题。在技术问题的情况下,提出了一种消除危险的波卡轭解决方案。根据公司的工作组织,利用亲和关系图,将加工过程中工作站出现的问题和操作相关的问题分配到公司的具体部门,这样可以大大方便以后对不同部门的工作和员工的管理,以确保安全卫生的工作条件。
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引用次数: 0
Can smart city planning enhance the sustainable transition of the E.U. capitals? A project and strategy-based smart, sustainable performance analysis in the programming period 2014-2020 智慧城市规划能否促进欧盟首都的可持续转型?2014-2020年规划期间基于项目和战略的智能、可持续绩效分析
Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2023-10-27 DOI: 10.30657/pea.2023.29.51
Mária Szalmáné Csete, Tímea Baranyi
Abstract Cities across the globe perceive their opportunities for digital transition pathways. This paper presents a project and strategy-based assessment of smart city ambitions in the light of sustainable urban development pathways in the European Union capitals considering the programming period 2014-2020. The purpose of the research is to understand better the smart city trends in Europe and identify any correlation between smart city and sustainability ambitions through the European capitals. The basis of the research was the official project result platforms of European funds with priorities related to smart cities. The collected best practices of transnational smart city projects provide statistics from the previous programming period and draw attention to the developing trends of smart city functions and the activity level of European capitals in the digital transition. Results show that between 2014 and 2020 nearly half of the capitals owned a specific smart city strategic document. Evaluating the smart urban performance of the capitals, it can be stated that most smart solutions were implemented related to mobility and environment in the previous period. Furthermore, it was also considered whether smart city projects could facilitate the shift toward sustainability. Based on the assessment of their planning strategies, a complex image of the European capitals has been revealed in their smart city development concepts; their strategic-level planning can be understood better, which is essential for policymaking in the era of digitalisation, identifying synergies with sustainable urban development ambitions, and monitoring the reached targets at the city level.
全球各地的城市都看到了数字化转型途径的机遇。本文根据欧盟各国首都的可持续城市发展路径,考虑到规划期为2014-2020年,提出了基于项目和战略的智慧城市雄心评估。这项研究的目的是更好地了解欧洲的智慧城市趋势,并通过欧洲各国首都确定智慧城市与可持续发展目标之间的相关性。研究的基础是与智慧城市相关的欧洲基金的官方项目成果平台。收集的跨国智慧城市项目最佳实践提供了上一个规划期的统计数据,并提请注意智慧城市功能的发展趋势和欧洲首都在数字化转型中的活动水平。结果显示,2014年至2020年间,近一半的首都拥有特定的智慧城市战略文件。通过对首都智慧城市绩效的评估,可以看出,在过去的一段时间里,大多数智能解决方案都是与交通和环境相关的。此外,还考虑了智慧城市项目是否可以促进向可持续性的转变。通过对其规划策略的评估,揭示了欧洲各国首都智慧城市发展理念的复杂形象;可以更好地理解他们的战略层面规划,这对于数字化时代的政策制定、确定与可持续城市发展目标的协同效应以及监测城市层面的目标实现情况至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Job desertification as a modified variable in the relationship between the cognitive biases of the leader and the organizational anomie 工作沙漠化在领导者认知偏差与组织失范关系中的修正变量
Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2023-10-27 DOI: 10.30657/pea.2023.29.41
Husam Hussein Shyaa, Ali Abdulhassan Abbas
Abstract The study aims to improve employees’ understanding regards the modifying impact of job desertification on the relationship between cognitive biases and organizational anomie. Furthermore, the study also aims to examine a the direct relationship between each of the cognitive biases and the organizational anomie among the 305 employees working at Al-Hussein Teaching Hospital, Karbala region, Iraq. Outcomes confirmed the hypothesis that organizational anomie is favourably impacted by every of the cognitive biases pursued by the leader and dealt with, as a daily behavior, at work. The results also proved that the dimensions of cognitive biases have a positive impact on the organizational anomie. In addition to this, the nature of the connection between cognitive biases and organizational anomalies is affected by job desertification. Thus, the current study outcomes contribute towards the importance of understanding the job desertification behaviours exhibited by the employees in an organization. In general, Job desertification heavily deteriorates organizational performance, increases the mistrust between the leader and their subordinates and increases the moral deterioration of the employees in an organization.
摘要本研究旨在提高员工对工作沙漠化对认知偏差与组织失范关系的调节作用的认识。此外,本研究亦旨在探讨伊拉克卡尔巴拉地区侯赛因教学医院305名员工的认知偏差与组织失范之间的直接关系。结果证实了一个假设,即组织失范会受到领导者所追求的每一种认知偏见的积极影响,并作为一种日常工作行为加以处理。研究结果还表明,认知偏差的维度对组织失范有正向影响。除此之外,认知偏差与组织异常之间联系的性质还受到工作沙漠化的影响。因此,当前的研究结果有助于理解组织中员工表现出的工作荒漠化行为的重要性。总的来说,工作沙漠化严重恶化了组织绩效,增加了领导与下属之间的不信任,增加了组织中员工的道德败坏。
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引用次数: 0
Using neural networks to examine trending keywords in Inventory Control 利用神经网络研究库存控制中的趋势关键词
Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2023-10-27 DOI: 10.30657/pea.2023.29.52
Adam Sadowski, Michał Sadowski, Per Engelseth, Zbigniew Galar, Beata Skowron-Grabowska
Abstract Inventory control is one of the key areas of research in logistics. Using the SCOPUS database, we have processed 9,829 articles on inventory control using triangulation of statistical methods and machine learning. We have proven the usefulness of the proposed statistical method and Graph Attention Network (GAT) architecture for determining trend-setting keywords in inventory control research. We have demonstrated the changes in the research conducted between 1950 and 2021 by presenting the evolution of keywords in articles. A novelty of our research is the applied approach to bibliometric analysis using unsupervised deep learning. It allows to identify the keywords that determined the high citation rate of the article. The theoretical framework for the intellectual structure of research proposed in the studies on inventory control is general and can be applied to any area of knowledge.
摘要库存控制是物流研究的重点领域之一。使用SCOPUS数据库,我们使用统计方法的三角测量和机器学习处理了9829篇关于库存控制的文章。我们已经证明了所提出的统计方法和图注意网络(GAT)架构在库存控制研究中确定趋势设定关键词的有效性。我们通过展示文章中关键词的演变,展示了1950年至2021年间研究的变化。我们研究的一个新颖之处是应用无监督深度学习的文献计量分析方法。它可以识别出决定文章高引用率的关键字。在库存控制研究中提出的研究知识结构的理论框架是通用的,可以应用于任何知识领域。
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引用次数: 0
Green technologies in smart city multifloor manufacturing clusters: A framework for additive manufacturing management 智慧城市多层制造集群中的绿色技术:增材制造管理框架
Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2023-10-27 DOI: 10.30657/pea.2023.29.48
Agnieszka Deja, Wojciech Ślączka, Lyudmyla Dzhuguryan, Tygran Dzhuguryan, Robert Ulewicz
Abstract The development of smart sustainable megapolises is associated with the formation of city multifloor manufacturing clusters (CMFMCs) in them directly in the residential area in order to reduce the supply chain from the manufacturer to consumers. Additive technologies (ATs) belong to green technologies because they are considered environmentally sustainable due to less production waste and the ability to reuse of product materials within the circular economy concept. Sustainable development of ATs and additive manufacturing management has become a priority sphere for scientific research, and the use of ATs in the city manufacturing has become any daily reality. Nevertheless, the issues of additive manufacturing management within the CMFMCs have not yet been sufficiently studied. The primary goal of this study was to examine the possibilities of additive manufacturing management in the CMFMCs of the megapolis due to the rational facilities multi-floor layout in production buildings, considering the structure of city manufacturing and business process reengineering related to the needs of the production services market. This paper presents a novel model of facilities multi-floor layout in the production buildings of the CMFMCs, considering the structure of city manufacturing, morphological analysis of the additive manufacturing equipment (AME) used, the balance of material and energy flows under infrastructure capacity limitations of megapolis. The model was verified based on a case study for various options of the floor-by-floor grouping of AME in a building of the CMFMCs. Management solutions for maintaining the flow balance of material, energy and water resources in the CMFMCs are discussed. The results may be useful for additive manufacturing management in an urban environment, taking into account the needs of the production services market in the megapolis.
智能可持续大都市的发展与城市多层制造业集群(CMFMCs)的形成有关,这些集群直接在住宅区内形成,以减少从制造商到消费者的供应链。增材技术(at)属于绿色技术,因为它们被认为是环境可持续的,因为在循环经济概念中,生产浪费较少,产品材料可以重复使用。人工智能的可持续发展和增材制造管理已成为科学研究的重点领域,在城市制造中使用人工智能已成为日常现实。然而,增材制造管理在cmfmc内部的问题还没有得到充分的研究。本研究的主要目的是在考虑城市制造结构和与生产服务市场需求相关的业务流程再造的情况下,通过合理的生产建筑设施多层布局,考察大都市cmfmc中增材制造管理的可能性。本文从城市制造结构、增材制造设备形态分析、超大城市基础设施容量限制下的物质与能量流动平衡等方面,提出了一种新型增材制造企业生产建筑设施多层布局模型。通过对某cmfmc建筑中不同楼层AME分组方案的实例研究,对模型进行了验证。讨论了在cmfmc中维持物质、能源和水资源流动平衡的管理解决方案。考虑到大城市生产服务市场的需求,研究结果可能对城市环境中的增材制造管理有用。
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引用次数: 0
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Production Engineering Archives
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