{"title":"连续犯罪者居住地预测:第二部分——预测模型准确性评估","authors":"Jamie S. Spaulding, Keith B. Morris","doi":"10.1002/jip.1606","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>A novel approach for geographic profiling was developed which assesses and integrates available information and evidence relevant to the case for the development of a geographic profile (Part I). The approach is flexible when lesser information is available, in the form of a centrographic model for when solely the victim abandonment or murder sites are known and a perpetrator trek model for instances where both encounter and abandonment sites are available. Eleven case studies were used to evaluate these models including a comprehensive application of the evidence driven model to the Yorkshire Ripper investigation from the view of the 1980 advisory team. The calculation of weights for and inclusion of factors in the prediction of perpetrator residence appears to be a viable method for geographic profiling. This method demonstrated the lowest average search area across all cases when compared to both centrographic spatial distribution strategies and the probability distance strategies implemented in software. Implications for casework include a reduction of resource use per serial incident such as manpower, time, and software expenses.</p>","PeriodicalId":46397,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2022-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Prediction of serial perpetrator residence: Part II—Evaluation of prediction model accuracy\",\"authors\":\"Jamie S. Spaulding, Keith B. Morris\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/jip.1606\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>A novel approach for geographic profiling was developed which assesses and integrates available information and evidence relevant to the case for the development of a geographic profile (Part I). The approach is flexible when lesser information is available, in the form of a centrographic model for when solely the victim abandonment or murder sites are known and a perpetrator trek model for instances where both encounter and abandonment sites are available. Eleven case studies were used to evaluate these models including a comprehensive application of the evidence driven model to the Yorkshire Ripper investigation from the view of the 1980 advisory team. The calculation of weights for and inclusion of factors in the prediction of perpetrator residence appears to be a viable method for geographic profiling. This method demonstrated the lowest average search area across all cases when compared to both centrographic spatial distribution strategies and the probability distance strategies implemented in software. Implications for casework include a reduction of resource use per serial incident such as manpower, time, and software expenses.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":46397,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-11-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"102\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jip.1606\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"心理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jip.1606","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Prediction of serial perpetrator residence: Part II—Evaluation of prediction model accuracy
A novel approach for geographic profiling was developed which assesses and integrates available information and evidence relevant to the case for the development of a geographic profile (Part I). The approach is flexible when lesser information is available, in the form of a centrographic model for when solely the victim abandonment or murder sites are known and a perpetrator trek model for instances where both encounter and abandonment sites are available. Eleven case studies were used to evaluate these models including a comprehensive application of the evidence driven model to the Yorkshire Ripper investigation from the view of the 1980 advisory team. The calculation of weights for and inclusion of factors in the prediction of perpetrator residence appears to be a viable method for geographic profiling. This method demonstrated the lowest average search area across all cases when compared to both centrographic spatial distribution strategies and the probability distance strategies implemented in software. Implications for casework include a reduction of resource use per serial incident such as manpower, time, and software expenses.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling (JIP-OP) is an international journal of behavioural science contributions to criminal and civil investigations, for researchers and practitioners, also exploring the legal and jurisprudential implications of psychological and related aspects of all forms of investigation. Investigative Psychology is rapidly developing worldwide. It is a newly established, interdisciplinary area of research and application, concerned with the systematic, scientific examination of all those aspects of psychology and the related behavioural and social sciences that may be relevant to criminal.