DSAEF_LTP模式对2018年中国登陆热带气旋强降水模拟的改进

IF 1.5 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 热带气象学报 Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI:10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.021
Chen Yu-xu, Jia Li, J. Zuo, Ding Chen-chen, Ren Fu-min, LI Guo-ping
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文采用登陆热带气旋降水动态-统计-模拟集合预报模式(DSAEF_LTP模式),对2018年中国发生的10次登陆热带气旋降水进行了模拟。通过增加相似区域方案(SRS)参数值,并在广义初始值(GIV)中引入TC强度,设计了4组降水模拟实验,验证了改进模型对更多TC样本的预报能力。结果表明,无论只添加SRS值,还是在GIV中引入TC强度,DSAEF_LTP模型的模拟能力都可以得到优化,而同时进行两种改进的实验在模拟LTCs较强降水方面的优势更为突出。与四种NWP模型(即(ECMWF、GFS、GRAPES和sms - warm), DSAEF_LTP模式在250 mm以上阈值的模拟效果较好,在100 mm以上阈值的模拟效果略好于NWP模式。
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On the Improvement of the DSAEF_LTP Model to Heavy Precipitation Simulation of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over China in 2018
In this study, the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model(DSAEF_LTP model) for landfalling tropical cyclone(LTC) precipitation was employed to simulate the precipitation of 10 LTCs that occurred over China in 2018. With similarity region scheme(SRS) parameter values added and TC intensity introduced to the generalized initial value(GIV), four groups of precipitation simulation experiments were designed to verify the forecasting ability of the improved model for more TC samples. Results show that the simulation ability of the DSAEF_LTP model can be optimized regardless of whether adding SRS values only, or introducing TC intensity into GIV, while the experiment with both the two improvements shows a more prominent advantage in simulating the heavier precipitation of LTCs. Compared with four NWP models(i.e., ECMWF, GFS, GRAPES and SMS-WARMS), the overall forecasting performance of the DSAEF_LTP model achieves a better result in simulating precipitation at the thresholds over 250 mm and performs slightly better than NWP models at the thresholds over 100 mm.
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来源期刊
热带气象学报
热带气象学报 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
8.30%
发文量
2793
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Information not localized
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