政治民意调查和选举预测的成败

IF 1.5 Q2 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI:10.1080/2330443X.2021.1971126

A. Gelman

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引用次数: 3

摘要

摘要最近政治民调的成功和失败引发了几个问题：为什么民调在一些备受瞩目的竞选中出错了？相反，即使在进行和解释民意调查时面临着明显的挑战，民意调查怎么会表现得如此出色？

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Failure and Success in Political Polling and Election Forecasting

Abstract The recent successes and failures of political polling invite several questions: Why did the polls get it wrong in some high-profile races? Conversely, how is it that polls can perform so well, even given all the evident challenges of conducting and interpreting them?

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