Pub Date : 2024-05-16DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2024.2356514
Jason Poulos
This paper examines how homestead policies, which opened vast frontier lands for settlement, influenced the development of American frontier states. It uses a treatment propensity-weighted matrix c...
{"title":"State-Building through Public Land Disposal? An Application of Matrix Completion for Counterfactual Prediction","authors":"Jason Poulos","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2024.2356514","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2024.2356514","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines how homestead policies, which opened vast frontier lands for settlement, influenced the development of American frontier states. It uses a treatment propensity-weighted matrix c...","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141153203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-15DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2024.2342777
Raid Amin, Alexis Angstadt, Vladimir Dragomirov, Maria Drury, Kyra Farinas, Michael Mezzano, Amy Muller, Paul Waterhouse
This study investigates the spatiotemporal variations in jail incarcerations in addition to associations with several risk factors and jail incarceration counts at the county level for the period 2...
本研究调查了 2 年间监狱监禁的时空变化，以及与若干风险因素和县级监狱监禁人数的关联。
{"title":"Clusters of Jail Incarcerations in US Counties: 2010-2018","authors":"Raid Amin, Alexis Angstadt, Vladimir Dragomirov, Maria Drury, Kyra Farinas, Michael Mezzano, Amy Muller, Paul Waterhouse","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2024.2342777","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2024.2342777","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the spatiotemporal variations in jail incarcerations in addition to associations with several risk factors and jail incarceration counts at the county level for the period 2...","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140575929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-02DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2024.2314011
Stephen Penneck
This note, inspired by the Pearson article, draws on the experience of the development of the UK statistical system over the last 20 years. Incremental steps were taken, which eventually led to sta...
{"title":"Comment on ‘What protects the autonomy of the Federal Statistics Agencies? An Assessment of the Procedures in Place That Protect the Independence and Objectivity of Official Statistics” by Pierson et al.","authors":"Stephen Penneck","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2024.2314011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2024.2314011","url":null,"abstract":"This note, inspired by the Pearson article, draws on the experience of the development of the UK statistical system over the last 20 years. Incremental steps were taken, which eventually led to sta...","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139755770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-05DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2024.2302189
Nicholas Scurich, Richard S. John
{"title":"On Coping in a Non-Binary World: Rejoinder to Biedermann and Kotsoglou","authors":"Nicholas Scurich, Richard S. John","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2024.2302189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2024.2302189","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":"56 28","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139382282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-01DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2288166
Alex Biedermann, Kyriakos N. Kotsoglou
This letter to the Editor comments on the paper “Three-Way ROCs for Forensic Decision Making” by Nicholas Scurich and Richard S. John, published in Statistics and Public Policy (2023, 10, 1–10).
这封致编辑的信是对Nicholas Scurich和Richard S. John发表在《统计与公共政策》(2023,10,1-10)上的论文“法医决策的三方roc”的评论。
{"title":"Commentary on “Three-Way ROCs for Forensic Decision Making” by Nicholas Scurich and Richard S. John (in: Statistics and Public Policy)","authors":"Alex Biedermann, Kyriakos N. Kotsoglou","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2023.2288166","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2023.2288166","url":null,"abstract":"This letter to the Editor comments on the paper “Three-Way ROCs for Forensic Decision Making” by Nicholas Scurich and Richard S. John, published in Statistics and Public Policy (2023, 10, 1–10).","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":"28 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138509831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-01DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2289529
Bernard Grofman, Jonathan Cervas
Years after the election, a substantial portion of the electorate, including a significant majority of Republican voters and numerous Republican officials, continue to believe that the 2020 electio...
选举多年后，相当一部分选民，包括绝大多数共和党选民和众多共和党官员，仍然认为2020年的选举……
{"title":"Statistical Fallacies in Claims about ‘Massive and Widespread Fraud’ in the 2020 Presidential Election: Examining Claims Based on Aggregate Election Results 1,2","authors":"Bernard Grofman, Jonathan Cervas","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2023.2289529","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2023.2289529","url":null,"abstract":"Years after the election, a substantial portion of the electorate, including a significant majority of Republican voters and numerous Republican officials, continue to believe that the 2020 electio...","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":"28 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138509832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-17DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2285788
Emerson Elliott, Jonathan Auerbach, C. Citro, Daniel Elchert, Steve Pierson, Marilyn Seastrom, Thomas Snyder, Katherine Wallman, James L. Woodworth
{"title":"Bolstering Education Statistics to Serve the Nation","authors":"Emerson Elliott, Jonathan Auerbach, C. Citro, Daniel Elchert, Steve Pierson, Marilyn Seastrom, Thomas Snyder, Katherine Wallman, James L. Woodworth","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2023.2285788","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2023.2285788","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":"29 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139264827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-06DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2267617
Angela Zhou, Andrew Koo, Nathan Kallus, Rene Ropac, Richard Peterson, Stephen Koppel, Tiffany Bergin
We conduct an empirical evaluation of the short-term impact of New York’s bail reform on crime. New York State’s Bail Elimination Act went into effect on January 1, 2020, eliminating money bail and pretrial detention for nearly all misdemeanor and nonviolent felony defendants. Our analysis of effects on aggregate crime rates after the reform informs the understanding of bail reform and general deterrence, rather than specific deterrence via re-arrest rates of the detained/released population. We conduct a synthetic control analysis for a comparative case study of the impact of bail reform. We focus on synthetic control analysis of post-intervention changes in crime for assault, theft, burglary, robbery, and drug crimes, constructing a dataset from publicly reported crime data of 27 large municipalities. Due to the short time frame before the onset of COVID-19 and its far-reaching effects, we restrict attention to a short post-intervention time period. Nonetheless, evaluation of short-term impacts may still inform hypotheses of general deterrence of bail reform policy. Our findings, including placebo checks and other robustness checks, show that for assault, theft, and drug crimes, there is no significant impact of bail reform on aggregate crime. For robbery, we find a statistically significant increase; for burglary, the synthetic control is more variable and our analysis is deemed less conclusive. Since our study assesses the short-term impacts, further work studying long-term impacts of bail reform and on specific deterrence remains necessary.
{"title":"Synthetic Control Analysis of the Short-Term Impact of New York State’s Bail Elimination Act on Aggregate Crime","authors":"Angela Zhou, Andrew Koo, Nathan Kallus, Rene Ropac, Richard Peterson, Stephen Koppel, Tiffany Bergin","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2023.2267617","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2023.2267617","url":null,"abstract":"We conduct an empirical evaluation of the short-term impact of New York’s bail reform on crime. New York State’s Bail Elimination Act went into effect on January 1, 2020, eliminating money bail and pretrial detention for nearly all misdemeanor and nonviolent felony defendants. Our analysis of effects on aggregate crime rates after the reform informs the understanding of bail reform and general deterrence, rather than specific deterrence via re-arrest rates of the detained/released population. We conduct a synthetic control analysis for a comparative case study of the impact of bail reform. We focus on synthetic control analysis of post-intervention changes in crime for assault, theft, burglary, robbery, and drug crimes, constructing a dataset from publicly reported crime data of 27 large municipalities. Due to the short time frame before the onset of COVID-19 and its far-reaching effects, we restrict attention to a short post-intervention time period. Nonetheless, evaluation of short-term impacts may still inform hypotheses of general deterrence of bail reform policy. Our findings, including placebo checks and other robustness checks, show that for assault, theft, and drug crimes, there is no significant impact of bail reform on aggregate crime. For robbery, we find a statistically significant increase; for burglary, the synthetic control is more variable and our analysis is deemed less conclusive. Since our study assesses the short-term impacts, further work studying long-term impacts of bail reform and on specific deterrence remains necessary.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135351849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-29DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2263038
Dennis J. Aigner, Marco del Ángel, Joel Wiles
The measurement of the disparate impact of a particular de facto discriminatory policy on a minority or otherwise legally protected group has been of importance since passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. When the data available for the measurement of disparate impact, as embodied in the so-called “disparity ratio,” come from samples, a statistical approach naturally suggests itself. This article reviews both the law and statistics literature with regard to statistical inference applicable to the disparity ratio and related measures of disparate impact. From that review, three primary approaches are evaluated, the difference in so-called “rejection” rates for the protected and non-protected groups, their ratio (the disparity ratio), and the natural logarithm of the disparity ratio. For various reasons, the direct ratio estimator is recommended for use in all but small samples, where the log-ratio approach is to be preferred. The main points are illustrated with two fair housing examples, one being the possible discriminatory effect by race owing to a landlord’s refusal to accept Section 8 housing vouchers in lieu of cash rent, and the other being the effects of occupancy restrictions on families with children. Various methodological issues that arise in the application of these three estimation approaches are addressed in the context of the more complex sample designs that underlie the data utilized.
{"title":"STATISTICAL APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING DISPARATE IMPACT IN FAIR HOUSING CASES","authors":"Dennis J. Aigner, Marco del Ángel, Joel Wiles","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2023.2263038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2023.2263038","url":null,"abstract":"The measurement of the disparate impact of a particular de facto discriminatory policy on a minority or otherwise legally protected group has been of importance since passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. When the data available for the measurement of disparate impact, as embodied in the so-called “disparity ratio,” come from samples, a statistical approach naturally suggests itself. This article reviews both the law and statistics literature with regard to statistical inference applicable to the disparity ratio and related measures of disparate impact. From that review, three primary approaches are evaluated, the difference in so-called “rejection” rates for the protected and non-protected groups, their ratio (the disparity ratio), and the natural logarithm of the disparity ratio. For various reasons, the direct ratio estimator is recommended for use in all but small samples, where the log-ratio approach is to be preferred. The main points are illustrated with two fair housing examples, one being the possible discriminatory effect by race owing to a landlord’s refusal to accept Section 8 housing vouchers in lieu of cash rent, and the other being the effects of occupancy restrictions on families with children. Various methodological issues that arise in the application of these three estimation approaches are addressed in the context of the more complex sample designs that underlie the data utilized.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135194068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-14DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2221320
Wayne Smith
{"title":"Comment on “What Protects the Autonomy of the Federal Statistical Agencies? An Assessment of the Procedures in Place That Protect the Independence and Objectivity of Official Statistics” by Pierson et al.","authors":"Wayne Smith","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2023.2221320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2023.2221320","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134971440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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