美元化下货币政策对宏观经济的影响:来自老挝人民民主共和国的证据

Hail Park, J. Son, Wenbo Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的本研究旨在基于老挝人民民主共和国银行(BOL)的货币政策工具以及国内市场上的实际和金融变量,实证分析考虑不对称的货币政策传导。设计/方法论/方法本研究采用传统向量自回归(VAR)和非对称VAR两种方法,研究货币政策对老挝PDR中包括通货膨胀和实际GDP增长在内的宏观经济变量的影响,这对实际国内生产总值增长和通货膨胀产生了显著的积极影响。非对称VAR模型的结果进一步证实了实体经济对正M0冲击(放松货币政策)的反应,而不是对负M0冲击的反应(收紧货币政策)。实际含义总体估计结果表明,老挝货币政策的有效性有限,这项研究可以填补文献中对BOL货币政策中货币政策传导机制的讨论仍然鲜为人知的空白。
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Impact of monetary policy on the macroeconomy under dollarization: evidence from the Lao PDR
PurposeThis study empirically aims to analyze the transmission of monetary policy in consideration of asymmetry based on the Bank of the Lao PDR (BOL)'s monetary policy tools and real and financial variables in the domestic market.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts two approaches, conventional vector autoregression (VAR) and asymmetric VAR, to investigate the impact of monetary policy on macroeconomic variables including inflation and real GDP growth in the Lao PDR.FindingsUnder a highly dollarized monetary regime, the policy rate change plays a weaker role compared with M0, which exerts significantly positive effects on real GDP growth and inflation. The results of the asymmetric VAR model further substantiate that the real economy responds to a positive M0 shock (easing monetary policy) rather than a negative shock (tightening monetary policy).Practical implicationsOverall estimation results suggest that the effectiveness of monetary policy is limited in Laos, which would take priority over efforts to strengthen the development of the short-term financial market and de-dollarization.Originality/valueThis study can fill the gap in the literature in which the discussions on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the BOL's monetary policy are still little known.
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发文量
10
审稿时长
8 weeks
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