Will Mexico meet its climate commitments?

In its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), Mexico is committed to reducing unconditionally 22 and 51% of its emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and black carbon, respectively, by 2030, with an emission peak in 2026. Additional reductions of 36 and 70%, respectively, are proposed conditioned to support from other parties. In this work, the percentage of reduction to reach the emission mitigation targets that Mexico proposed in its NDC is estimated. The results show that in order to meet its unconditional NDC, Mexico should start mitigation in 2020 with a 1.5% reduction rate until 2030 and a 3.3% reduction rate by 2050, to reach an emission peak in 2023. To meet the conditional NDC, a 3.1% emission reduction rate until 2030 should be applied, with peak emission in 2021, and 5.8% from 2030 to 2050. In none of these estimates an emission peak in 2026 matches the NDC mitigation options. Furthermore, none of the emissions reduction pathways estimated in this study fulfills the conditional or unconditional contribution and peaks in 2026 at the same time. Mexico has a long history in international climate policy and is a key emerging economy among the top 15 highest GHG emitters. If Mexico does not achieve its NDC, the international implications, both political and climatic, could put the NDC model at risk if there are more large emitters that do not comply with their contribution.