Ivan L. Novara, Daniel B. Berdichevsky, Ruben D Piacentini
Subsurface temperatures have been measured in different regions of the world, usually near the surface up to a depth of about a hundred meters. In this work a forward model calculation for a Northern Hemisphere soil temperature site at Kapuskasing, Canada, is presented, employing the solution of the differential equation of heat conduction through a semi-infinite homogeneous solid, subject to surface boundary conditions determined by surface air temperature. In this way, a detailed analysis is made of the subsurface temperature as a function of ground depth and for the time interval ranging from 1970 to the future (including the next century), for different scenarios of climate change. From these results, it was possible to determine the following characteristic quantities: (a) the depth where the surface perturbation (practically) finishes (in the range of about 180-200 m); (b) the depth where the subsurface temperature changes its slope from negative to positive; (c) the temperature change at the surface for the years where data exist; (d) the thermal gradient at steady state in the starting year (1880); (e) the temperature differences extrapolated at surface and at a 20 m depth, this last value corresponding to the depth at which seasonal and diurnal temperature variations are negligible; (f) the heat flow at surface to the inner part of the soil attributed to climate change, and (g) the temperature changes at surface for the 100 years interval (1980-2080) and mainly for the next century (2080-2180), for each site and for each IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario. As an example, the impact of the change in mean annual soil temperature due to global warming in near-surface geothermal energy is described.
{"title":"Subsurface temperature change attributed to climate change at the northern latitude site of Kapuskasing, Canada","authors":"Ivan L. Novara, Daniel B. Berdichevsky, Ruben D Piacentini","doi":"10.20937/atm.53211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53211","url":null,"abstract":"Subsurface temperatures have been measured in different regions of the world, usually near the surface up to a depth of about a hundred meters. In this work a forward model calculation for a Northern Hemisphere soil temperature site at Kapuskasing, Canada, is presented, employing the solution of the differential equation of heat conduction through a semi-infinite homogeneous solid, subject to surface boundary conditions determined by surface air temperature. In this way, a detailed analysis is made of the subsurface temperature as a function of ground depth and for the time interval ranging from 1970 to the future (including the next century), for different scenarios of climate change. From these results, it was possible to determine the following characteristic quantities: (a) the depth where the surface perturbation (practically) finishes (in the range of about 180-200 m); (b) the depth where the subsurface temperature changes its slope from negative to positive; (c) the temperature change at the surface for the years where data exist; (d) the thermal gradient at steady state in the starting year (1880); (e) the temperature differences extrapolated at surface and at a 20 m depth, this last value corresponding to the depth at which seasonal and diurnal temperature variations are negligible; (f) the heat flow at surface to the inner part of the soil attributed to climate change, and (g) the temperature changes at surface for the 100 years interval (1980-2080) and mainly for the next century (2080-2180), for each site and for each IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario. As an example, the impact of the change in mean annual soil temperature due to global warming in near-surface geothermal energy is described.","PeriodicalId":55576,"journal":{"name":"Atmosfera","volume":"67 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136281730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The dispersion of atmospheric NH3 constitutes the most common passive polluting system in cattle stables. Although the studies carried out through computational fluid dynamics (CFD) are focused on improving the environmental conditions in situ to increase the productivity of stables, they do not refer to determining the environmental impact of NH3 emissions into the atmosphere. This work evaluated the distribution of the NH3 flux inside a barn using CFD and its relationship with environmental conditions through probabilistic analysis by the K2 algorithm. The initial data on environmental conditions were wind speed and direction, maximum temperature, and humidity from the nearest weather station in a region characterized by hot weather conditions during summer. The vertical trajectory was used to analyze the impact of long-range transport on the spatial distribution, where 75% is between 0 and 5 m in height, and 25% is between 10 and 20 m outside the eaves. The work concluded that temperature is the main parameter of influence.
{"title":"Development of a CFD model to simulate the dispersion of atmospheric NH3 in a semi-open barn","authors":"Guillermo Alfonso de la Torre-Gea","doi":"10.20937/atm.53277","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53277","url":null,"abstract":"The dispersion of atmospheric NH3 constitutes the most common passive polluting system in cattle stables. Although the studies carried out through computational fluid dynamics (CFD) are focused on improving the environmental conditions in situ to increase the productivity of stables, they do not refer to determining the environmental impact of NH3 emissions into the atmosphere. This work evaluated the distribution of the NH3 flux inside a barn using CFD and its relationship with environmental conditions through probabilistic analysis by the K2 algorithm. The initial data on environmental conditions were wind speed and direction, maximum temperature, and humidity from the nearest weather station in a region characterized by hot weather conditions during summer. The vertical trajectory was used to analyze the impact of long-range transport on the spatial distribution, where 75% is between 0 and 5 m in height, and 25% is between 10 and 20 m outside the eaves. The work concluded that temperature is the main parameter of influence.","PeriodicalId":55576,"journal":{"name":"Atmosfera","volume":"31 18","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135818751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yanet Diaz-Esteban, Carlos Alberto López-Villalobos, Carlos Abraham Ochoa Moya, Rosario Romero-Centeno, Ignacio Arturo Quintanar
Wind energy is an important renewable source that has been considerably developed recently. In order to obtain successful 24-h lead-time wind power forecasts for operational and commercial uses, a combination of physical and statistical models is desirable. In this paper, a hybrid methodology that employs a numerical weather prediction model (Weather Research and Forecasting) and a neural network (NN) algorithm is proposed and assessed. The methodology is applied to a wind farm in northwestern Mexico, a region with high wind potential where complex geography adds large uncertainty to wind energy forecasts. The energy forecasts are then evaluated against actual on-site power generation over one year and compared with two reference models: decision trees (DT) and support vector regression (SVR). The proposed method exhibits a better performance with respect to the reference methods, showing an hourly normalized mean absolute percentage error of 6.97%, which represents 6 and 13 percentage points less error in wind power forecasts than with DT and SVR methods, respectively. Under strong synoptic forcing, the NN wind power forecast is not very accurate, and novel approaches such as hierarchical algorithms should be employed instead. Overall, the proposed model is capable of producing high-quality wind power forecasts for most weather conditions prevailing in this region and demonstrates a good performance with respect to similar models for medium-term wind power forecasts.
风能是一种重要的可再生能源，近年来得到了很大的发展。为了获得成功的用于运营和商业用途的24小时提前期风电预测，需要将物理模型和统计模型结合起来。本文提出并评估了一种采用数值天气预报模型(weather Research and Forecasting)和神经网络(NN)算法的混合方法。该方法应用于墨西哥西北部的一个风力发电场，该地区风力潜力巨大，复杂的地理位置为风能预测增加了很大的不确定性。然后根据一年的实际现场发电量对能源预测进行评估，并与两种参考模型进行比较:决策树(DT)和支持向量回归(SVR)。与参考方法相比，本文方法具有更好的性能，每小时归一化平均绝对百分比误差为6.97%，与DT和SVR方法相比，误差分别减小了6和13个百分点。在强天气强迫下，神经网络风电预测精度不高，需要采用分层算法等新方法进行预测。总的来说，建议的模型能够为该地区的大多数天气条件提供高质量的风力预测，并且与类似的中期风力预测模型相比表现良好。
{"title":"Using a hybrid approach for wind power forecasting in Northwestern Mexico","authors":"Yanet Diaz-Esteban, Carlos Alberto López-Villalobos, Carlos Abraham Ochoa Moya, Rosario Romero-Centeno, Ignacio Arturo Quintanar","doi":"10.20937/atm.53258","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53258","url":null,"abstract":"Wind energy is an important renewable source that has been considerably developed recently. In order to obtain successful 24-h lead-time wind power forecasts for operational and commercial uses, a combination of physical and statistical models is desirable. In this paper, a hybrid methodology that employs a numerical weather prediction model (Weather Research and Forecasting) and a neural network (NN) algorithm is proposed and assessed. The methodology is applied to a wind farm in northwestern Mexico, a region with high wind potential where complex geography adds large uncertainty to wind energy forecasts. The energy forecasts are then evaluated against actual on-site power generation over one year and compared with two reference models: decision trees (DT) and support vector regression (SVR). The proposed method exhibits a better performance with respect to the reference methods, showing an hourly normalized mean absolute percentage error of 6.97%, which represents 6 and 13 percentage points less error in wind power forecasts than with DT and SVR methods, respectively. Under strong synoptic forcing, the NN wind power forecast is not very accurate, and novel approaches such as hierarchical algorithms should be employed instead. Overall, the proposed model is capable of producing high-quality wind power forecasts for most weather conditions prevailing in this region and demonstrates a good performance with respect to similar models for medium-term wind power forecasts.","PeriodicalId":55576,"journal":{"name":"Atmosfera","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136023042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mayela Monge Muñoz, Ana Gabriela Pérez Castillo, Ana María Durán Quesada
{"title":"Threats to tropical wetlands: Medio Queso Wetland as a case of degraded system","authors":"Mayela Monge Muñoz, Ana Gabriela Pérez Castillo, Ana María Durán Quesada","doi":"10.20937/atm.53338","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53338","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55576,"journal":{"name":"Atmosfera","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136210299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solange E. Luque, Lluís Fita, Andrea L. Pineda Rojas
This work presents the performance evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to estimate surface wind speed and direction, air temperature, and water vapor mixing ratio considering 22 configurations at high spatial resolution (1 km) during one week in winter and one week in spring, in order to determine the best-performing schemes for air quality purposes in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Results show that the use of urban schemes mostly affects wind speed and temperature. The single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) coupled with the Boulac planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme exhibits the best results for wind speed. Wind direction and water vapor mixing ratio are more sensitive to the land surface model scheme, with results slightly improving with the Noah-MP land surface model. Wind speed and direction errors are larger when the former is lower. When removing from the analysis wind speed values below 2.6 m s–1 for the winter week and 3.1 m s–1 for the spring week, the root mean square errors for wind direction decreased between 50 and 72% of the original value, depending on the configuration and week. Overall, under the studied conditions, configurations including Noah-Mp land surface model or the combination of a simple UCM with BouLac PBL are suitable for air quality applications, as they reproduce both temperature and water vapor mixing ratio relatively well, with errors below 10% and Correlation values above 0.7, and are the best performing configurations for wind direction and speed, respectively.
本文介绍了天气研究与预报(WRF)模型的性能评估，该模型在冬季一周和春季一周的高空间分辨率(1公里)下考虑22种配置，以估计地面风速和风向、气温和水蒸气混合比，以确定阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯市区空气质量目的的最佳方案。结果表明，城市方案的使用主要影响风速和温度。单层城市冠层模型(UCM)与Boulac行星边界层(PBL)方案的风速模拟效果最好。风向和水汽混合比对陆面模式方案更为敏感，Noah-MP陆面模式的结果略有改善。当前者较低时，风速和风向误差较大。当从分析中去除冬季周低于2.6 m s-1和春季周低于3.1 m s-1的风速值时，风向的均方根误差在原始值的50%到72%之间下降，具体取决于配置和周。总体而言，在研究条件下，Noah-Mp陆地表面模型或简单UCM与BouLac PBL的组合配置适合于空气质量应用，因为它们可以较好地再现温度和水汽混合比，误差小于10%，相关值大于0.7，并且分别是风向和风速的最佳配置。
{"title":"Performance evaluation of the WRF model under different physical schemes for air quality purposes in Buenos Aires, Argentina","authors":"Solange E. Luque, Lluís Fita, Andrea L. Pineda Rojas","doi":"10.20937/atm.53255","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53255","url":null,"abstract":"This work presents the performance evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to estimate surface wind speed and direction, air temperature, and water vapor mixing ratio considering 22 configurations at high spatial resolution (1 km) during one week in winter and one week in spring, in order to determine the best-performing schemes for air quality purposes in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Results show that the use of urban schemes mostly affects wind speed and temperature. The single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) coupled with the Boulac planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme exhibits the best results for wind speed. Wind direction and water vapor mixing ratio are more sensitive to the land surface model scheme, with results slightly improving with the Noah-MP land surface model. Wind speed and direction errors are larger when the former is lower. When removing from the analysis wind speed values below 2.6 m s–1 for the winter week and 3.1 m s–1 for the spring week, the root mean square errors for wind direction decreased between 50 and 72% of the original value, depending on the configuration and week. Overall, under the studied conditions, configurations including Noah-Mp land surface model or the combination of a simple UCM with BouLac PBL are suitable for air quality applications, as they reproduce both temperature and water vapor mixing ratio relatively well, with errors below 10% and Correlation values above 0.7, and are the best performing configurations for wind direction and speed, respectively.","PeriodicalId":55576,"journal":{"name":"Atmosfera","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135482699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Gabriel Santiago Gutiérrez-Cárdenas, Diana Cristina Díaz
To explore the impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the linear correlation among the indices of each oscillation was investigated. The indices Niño 1+2, Niño 3, Niño 3.4, Niño 4, ONI, SOI, BEST, TNI and MEI were used to represent the ENSO, besides the NAO index. The analysis considers the ENSO diversity in its spatial structure. The results show that when years with Eastern Pacific (EP) La Niña events were omitted, the linear correlation increased concerning other scenarios. This means that NAO responses for the Central Pacific (CP) ENSO tend to be linear, but seemingly they are not so for EP ENSO, which explains why the ENSO/NAO relationship has been difficult to identify and predict. The TNI-NAO relationship had the highest correlation values, followed by NAO-El Niño 4, whilst NAO/El Niño 1+2 and NAO/El Niño 3 showed the lowest coefficients. The results also confirmed that the atmospheric dynamics over the North Atlantic have a more linear teleconnection to the West and Central Pacific than to the Eastern Pacific. Changes in deep convection, atmospheric circulation, and vorticity are discussed like possible mechanisms that trigger the changes in impacts over the North Atlantic and other locations. The composite anomalies map also showed the contrast in the effects of both events and the importance of considering those differences when modeling ocean dynamics.
{"title":"El Niño-Southern Oscillation diversity and its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation – Atmospheric anomalies response over the North Atlantic and the Pacific","authors":"Gabriel Santiago Gutiérrez-Cárdenas, Diana Cristina Díaz","doi":"10.20937/atm.53226","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53226","url":null,"abstract":"To explore the impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the linear correlation among the indices of each oscillation was investigated. The indices Niño 1+2, Niño 3, Niño 3.4, Niño 4, ONI, SOI, BEST, TNI and MEI were used to represent the ENSO, besides the NAO index. The analysis considers the ENSO diversity in its spatial structure. The results show that when years with Eastern Pacific (EP) La Niña events were omitted, the linear correlation increased concerning other scenarios. This means that NAO responses for the Central Pacific (CP) ENSO tend to be linear, but seemingly they are not so for EP ENSO, which explains why the ENSO/NAO relationship has been difficult to identify and predict. The TNI-NAO relationship had the highest correlation values, followed by NAO-El Niño 4, whilst NAO/El Niño 1+2 and NAO/El Niño 3 showed the lowest coefficients. The results also confirmed that the atmospheric dynamics over the North Atlantic have a more linear teleconnection to the West and Central Pacific than to the Eastern Pacific. Changes in deep convection, atmospheric circulation, and vorticity are discussed like possible mechanisms that trigger the changes in impacts over the North Atlantic and other locations. The composite anomalies map also showed the contrast in the effects of both events and the importance of considering those differences when modeling ocean dynamics.","PeriodicalId":55576,"journal":{"name":"Atmosfera","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135815219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Oscar O. Díaz, Graciela B. Raga, Arturo I. Quintanar, John F. Mejía
Based on the climatology of air temperature, precipitation, and the normalized vegetation index (NDVI), a regionalization of Mexico for the rainy season is presented through a non-parametric clustering algorithm known as DBSCAN. Thirty years of data, spanning from 1984 to 2013, are used to detect structural change points with the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt non-parametric tests applied on the NDVI, mean daily precipitation, 99th percentile precipitation, and mean daily air temperature. The relative predictive importance of the parameters examined was estimated using a Machine-Learning Random Forest algorithm that allows establishing a connection between changes in the NDVI and changes in air temperature, average precipitation, and extreme precipitation for some regions. Modulation by large-scale climate phenomena, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as interannual modulation by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are explored. Structural change points in the series appear to be modulated mainly by the phase shift of the AMO and those of the ENSO and PDO in 1997.
{"title":"Structural change points of NDVI in Mexico driven by climate oscillatio","authors":"Oscar O. Díaz, Graciela B. Raga, Arturo I. Quintanar, John F. Mejía","doi":"10.20937/atm.53201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53201","url":null,"abstract":"Based on the climatology of air temperature, precipitation, and the normalized vegetation index (NDVI), a regionalization of Mexico for the rainy season is presented through a non-parametric clustering algorithm known as DBSCAN. Thirty years of data, spanning from 1984 to 2013, are used to detect structural change points with the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt non-parametric tests applied on the NDVI, mean daily precipitation, 99th percentile precipitation, and mean daily air temperature. The relative predictive importance of the parameters examined was estimated using a Machine-Learning Random Forest algorithm that allows establishing a connection between changes in the NDVI and changes in air temperature, average precipitation, and extreme precipitation for some regions. Modulation by large-scale climate phenomena, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as interannual modulation by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are explored. Structural change points in the series appear to be modulated mainly by the phase shift of the AMO and those of the ENSO and PDO in 1997.","PeriodicalId":55576,"journal":{"name":"Atmosfera","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135815331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Adalberto Tejeda-Martínez, Gabriel Balderas, Luz Moreyra, Omar Castro
Comparative studies of atmospheric humidity between urban and suburban and urban-rural environments are scarce, and their results are very scattered and inconclusive. In this paper, we compare differences in atmospheric temperature, relative humidity and absolute humidity measured at the limits between the urban canopy and the boundary layer in two elevated metropolises in Mexico: Guadalajara and Puebla. Results show that variations in relative humidity contrasts between different environments have an inverse relationship with the temperature variations. In Guadalajara, the urban excesses of absolute humidity are predominant from May to September. In Puebla the urban-suburban contrasts are lower than in Guadalajara, following a daily cycle and being negative between noon and 18:00 LT. From March to September urban-rural differences in Puebla are positive between 10:00 and 18:00 LT, and weak during the nocturnal period.
{"title":"Urban atmospheric humidity excesses and deficits in two Mexican metropolises: Guadalajara and Puebla","authors":"Adalberto Tejeda-Martínez, Gabriel Balderas, Luz Moreyra, Omar Castro","doi":"10.20937/atm.53252","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53252","url":null,"abstract":"Comparative studies of atmospheric humidity between urban and suburban and urban-rural environments are scarce, and their results are very scattered and inconclusive. In this paper, we compare differences in atmospheric temperature, relative humidity and absolute humidity measured at the limits between the urban canopy and the boundary layer in two elevated metropolises in Mexico: Guadalajara and Puebla. Results show that variations in relative humidity contrasts between different environments have an inverse relationship with the temperature variations. In Guadalajara, the urban excesses of absolute humidity are predominant from May to September. In Puebla the urban-suburban contrasts are lower than in Guadalajara, following a daily cycle and being negative between noon and 18:00 LT. From March to September urban-rural differences in Puebla are positive between 10:00 and 18:00 LT, and weak during the nocturnal period.","PeriodicalId":55576,"journal":{"name":"Atmosfera","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135814269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abril Villagrán-Vázquez, Roberto Garibay-Orijel, Carolina Ureta
Amanita phalloides is a native European deathly ectomycorrhizal mushroom that was introduced to North America and has been expanding its distribution during the last decades. This species is morphologically similar to wild edible mushrooms and if its distribution expands to Mexico, it could represent a risk in terms of food security for local communities. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential climatic suitability that exists for A. phalloides in North America and overlay it with the distribution of mycophilic communities in Mexico under a baseline climatic scenario and climate change scenarios. To find climatic suitability we modeled its potential distribution with the algorithm that had the best predictive power after pilot test (MaxEnt) using species presences and eight climatic variables chosen with biological and statistical criteria. We worked with CanESM5 because it is one of the best models to simulate climate in North America and SSP5-8.5 scenario in order to be consistent with the precautionary principle. Our results suggest that even when the species has not yet been registered in Mexico, when using European records to model, this country presents 33.61% of climatic suitability for this species under the baseline scenario, potentially affecting about 70% of indigenous communities which are the main consumers of edible mushrooms. Under climate change scenarios, an increase in climatic suitability is expected in Mexico, while decreases are expected in United States and Canada. When using North American records to model, almost no climatic suitability is found in Mexico; however, the implementation of warning campaigns in Mexico is still needed.
{"title":"Distribution changes of the toxic mushroom Amanita phalloides under climate change scenarios and its potential risk over indigenous communities in Mexico","authors":"Abril Villagrán-Vázquez, Roberto Garibay-Orijel, Carolina Ureta","doi":"10.20937/atm.53244","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53244","url":null,"abstract":"Amanita phalloides is a native European deathly ectomycorrhizal mushroom that was introduced to North America and has been expanding its distribution during the last decades. This species is morphologically similar to wild edible mushrooms and if its distribution expands to Mexico, it could represent a risk in terms of food security for local communities. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential climatic suitability that exists for A. phalloides in North America and overlay it with the distribution of mycophilic communities in Mexico under a baseline climatic scenario and climate change scenarios. To find climatic suitability we modeled its potential distribution with the algorithm that had the best predictive power after pilot test (MaxEnt) using species presences and eight climatic variables chosen with biological and statistical criteria. We worked with CanESM5 because it is one of the best models to simulate climate in North America and SSP5-8.5 scenario in order to be consistent with the precautionary principle. Our results suggest that even when the species has not yet been registered in Mexico, when using European records to model, this country presents 33.61% of climatic suitability for this species under the baseline scenario, potentially affecting about 70% of indigenous communities which are the main consumers of edible mushrooms. Under climate change scenarios, an increase in climatic suitability is expected in Mexico, while decreases are expected in United States and Canada. When using North American records to model, almost no climatic suitability is found in Mexico; however, the implementation of warning campaigns in Mexico is still needed.","PeriodicalId":55576,"journal":{"name":"Atmosfera","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135815210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Regina Mijares-Fajardo, René Lobato-Sánchez, Carlos Patiño-Gómez, David Eduardo Guevara-Polo
Three main sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have shown to play a key role in modulating rainfall variability over northern Mexico. Nevertheless, only a few studies have explored these teleconnections under a climate classification approach. In this study, the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Oceanic El Niño Index (ONI) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), over precipitation in dry and semi-dry areas of the Baja California peninsula and the state of Tamaulipas are analyzed for the period 1951-2021. Pearson and Spearman correlations are compared and proven to have equivalent results despite the different physical conditions of the two territories. The results show several statistically significant correlations indicating that for the study regions, the correlation is negative throughout the year between the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and AMO in latitudes above 28º N, while it is negative (positive) during the months of January-April (October-November) in lower latitudes. Simultaneously, the correlation is positive between SPI and ONI/PDO in eastern and western regions of northern Mexico, and it is negative between SPI-ONI and SPI-PDO in the months of August-September over the eastern side. The information generated throughout this study, in conjunction with the understanding of regional climate dynamics, can help to comprehend with greater certainty the effects of these teleconnections.
{"title":"Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature correlations with precipitation over northern Mexico","authors":"Regina Mijares-Fajardo, René Lobato-Sánchez, Carlos Patiño-Gómez, David Eduardo Guevara-Polo","doi":"10.20937/atm.53257","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53257","url":null,"abstract":"Three main sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have shown to play a key role in modulating rainfall variability over northern Mexico. Nevertheless, only a few studies have explored these teleconnections under a climate classification approach. In this study, the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Oceanic El Niño Index (ONI) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), over precipitation in dry and semi-dry areas of the Baja California peninsula and the state of Tamaulipas are analyzed for the period 1951-2021. Pearson and Spearman correlations are compared and proven to have equivalent results despite the different physical conditions of the two territories. The results show several statistically significant correlations indicating that for the study regions, the correlation is negative throughout the year between the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and AMO in latitudes above 28º N, while it is negative (positive) during the months of January-April (October-November) in lower latitudes. Simultaneously, the correlation is positive between SPI and ONI/PDO in eastern and western regions of northern Mexico, and it is negative between SPI-ONI and SPI-PDO in the months of August-September over the eastern side. The information generated throughout this study, in conjunction with the understanding of regional climate dynamics, can help to comprehend with greater certainty the effects of these teleconnections.","PeriodicalId":55576,"journal":{"name":"Atmosfera","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135814270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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