从餐桌到农场:欧盟27国更可持续饮食对农业部门的影响

IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Journal of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2023-02-11 DOI:10.1111/1477-9552.12530
Jörg Rieger, Florian Freund, Frank Offermann, Inna Geibel, Alexander Gocht
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引用次数: 3

摘要

饮食变化对环境和人类健康的影响有据可查,但对农业部门的影响研究较少。我们通过指定欧洲消费者的饮食在不同程度上接近EAT-Lancet饮食建议的情景来填补这一空白,并使用农业经济建模框架估计对农业生产、收入和排放的影响。不同模型的结合可以在不同的时间尺度上详细评估从全球到欧洲的NUTS2级别到农场级别的农业部门的后果。欧洲消费转向《EAT-Lancet》的建议,导致动物性产品的产量减少,而水果和蔬菜的产量急剧增加。研究结果表明,农业部门可以从饮食结构的转变中受益,尽管结果在国家、地区和农场层面各不相同。特别是,畜牧业高度专业化的国家和地区可能会损失收入——至少在短期内如此——而蔬菜和水果农场比例较高的地区有望获得收入增长。在德国,养猪场和家禽养殖场可能会损失高达34%的收入,而蔬菜种植比例较高的养殖场可能会增加30%以上的收入。我们的研究结果对帮助这些广泛的结构调整以应对广泛的饮食变化的政策具有启示意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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From fork to farm: Impacts of more sustainable diets in the EU-27 on the agricultural sector

The implications of dietary changes for the environment and for human health are well documented, but the impacts on the agricultural sector are less well researched. We fill this gap by specifying scenarios in which European consumers' diets approximate the EAT-Lancet dietary recommendations to varying degrees and estimate the effects on agricultural production, incomes and emissions using an agro-economic modelling framework. The combination of different models allows for a detailed assessment of consequences for the agricultural sector from the global through European NUTS2 level to the farm level at different time scales. Shifting European consumption towards the EAT-Lancet recommendations leads to decreasing production of animal-based products, while production of fruits and vegetables increases sharply. The results indicate that the agricultural sector could benefit from a dietary shift, though the results are mixed at country, regional and farm levels. In particular, countries and regions that are highly specialised in animal farming are likely to lose income—at least in the short run—while regions with higher shares of vegetable and fruit farms can expect income gains. In Germany, pig and poultry farms may experience losses of up to 34% of their income, whereas farms with a high share of vegetables could gain more than 30% in income. Our results have implications for the policies to assist these extensive structural adjustments in response to widespread dietary changes.

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来源期刊
Journal of Agricultural Economics
Journal of Agricultural Economics 管理科学-农业经济与政策
CiteScore
7.90
自引率
2.90%
发文量
48
审稿时长
>24 weeks
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the Agricultural Economics Society, the Journal of Agricultural Economics is a leading international professional journal, providing a forum for research into agricultural economics and related disciplines such as statistics, marketing, business management, politics, history and sociology, and their application to issues in the agricultural, food, and related industries; rural communities, and the environment. Each issue of the JAE contains articles, notes and book reviews as well as information relating to the Agricultural Economics Society. Published 3 times a year, it is received by members and institutional subscribers in 69 countries. With contributions from leading international scholars, the JAE is a leading citation for agricultural economics and policy. Published articles either deal with new developments in research and methods of analysis, or apply existing methods and techniques to new problems and situations which are of general interest to the Journal’s international readership.
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