用时变参数模拟老年死亡率

IF 1.4 3区社会学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Mathematical Population Studies Pub Date : 2017-07-03 DOI:10.1080/08898480.2017.1330013

Pavel Zimmermann

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引用次数: 1

摘要

几个具有时变参数的老年死亡率模型用一个公式表示。在这些模型中，存在一个年龄阈值是有问题的，超过该阈值死亡率会随着时间的推移而增加，低于该阈值死亡率就会随着时间的流逝而下降。该阈值的出现条件用经验数据在逻辑和指数模型上表示和显示。门槛的出现条件反映了发达国家的实际情况。Richards曲线避免了经验数据阈值的出现。

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Modeling mortality at old age with time-varying parameters

ABSTRACT Several models of old age mortality with time-varying parameters are expressed in a single formula. In these models, the existence of an age threshold above which mortality increases over time and below which mortality decreases over time is problematic. The conditions of appearance of this threshold are expressed and shown on logistic and exponential models with empirical data. The conditions of appearance of the threshold reflect actual situations in developed countries. Richards’ curve avoids the appearance of the threshold with empirical data.

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来源期刊

Mathematical Population Studies 数学-数学跨学科应用

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

11.10%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Mathematical Population Studies publishes carefully selected research papers in the mathematical and statistical study of populations. The journal is strongly interdisciplinary and invites contributions by mathematicians, demographers, (bio)statisticians, sociologists, economists, biologists, epidemiologists, actuaries, geographers, and others who are interested in the mathematical formulation of population-related questions. The scope covers both theoretical and empirical work. Manuscripts should be sent to Manuscript central for review. The editor-in-chief has final say on the suitability for publication.