美国天气预报准确性的探索性数据分析

IF 0.6 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Electronic Journal of Applied Statistical Analysis Pub Date : 2021-06-25 DOI:10.1285/I20705948V14N1P78
Xuemao Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

天气预报的可靠性如何?根据38个月来从美国113个城市收集的最高气温、最低气温和降水量三个变量的数据,对天气预报的准确性进行了检验。同一天的预报非常准确,尤其是对于最高温度,而随着预报的深入,预报误差和可变性也会增加。一些城市的预测误差比其他城市大或小。对于长期天气预报,最高和最低温度预报误差随时间的推移分别具有递减的相关性;然而,最高和最低温度预测误差之间的相关性是正的,并且随着时间的推移而增加。降水的7天预报误差相当准确。
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Exploratory Data Analysis of Accuracy of US Weather Forecastes
How reliable are the weather forecasts? Based on data collected from onehundred and thirteen cities in the United States over 38 months on threevariables, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation,accuracy of the weather forecasts was examined. The same day forecast hasbeen extremely accurate, especially for the maximum temperature, whilethe forecast errors and variability increase as forecasts go further out indays. Some cities have larger or smaller forecast errors than the others.For long-term weather forecasts, the maximum and minimum temperatureforecast errors has decreasing correlations overtime, respectively; However,the correlation between maximum and minimum temperature forecast errorsis positive and increasing overtime. The 7-days forecast errors of precipitationare pretty accurate.
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CiteScore
1.40
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14.30%
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