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Exploratory Data Analysis of Accuracy of US Weather Forecastes 美国天气预报准确性的探索性数据分析
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-06-25 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V14N1P78
Xuemao Zhang
How reliable are the weather forecasts? Based on data collected from onehundred and thirteen cities in the United States over 38 months on threevariables, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation,accuracy of the weather forecasts was examined. The same day forecast hasbeen extremely accurate, especially for the maximum temperature, whilethe forecast errors and variability increase as forecasts go further out indays. Some cities have larger or smaller forecast errors than the others.For long-term weather forecasts, the maximum and minimum temperatureforecast errors has decreasing correlations overtime, respectively; However,the correlation between maximum and minimum temperature forecast errorsis positive and increasing overtime. The 7-days forecast errors of precipitationare pretty accurate.
天气预报的可靠性如何?根据38个月来从美国113个城市收集的最高气温、最低气温和降水量三个变量的数据,对天气预报的准确性进行了检验。同一天的预报非常准确,尤其是对于最高温度,而随着预报的深入,预报误差和可变性也会增加。一些城市的预测误差比其他城市大或小。对于长期天气预报,最高和最低温度预报误差随时间的推移分别具有递减的相关性;然而,最高和最低温度预测误差之间的相关性是正的,并且随着时间的推移而增加。降水的7天预报误差相当准确。
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引用次数: 0
On the Number of Independent Components: An Adjusted Coefficient of Determination based Approach 关于独立分量数:一种基于调整确定系数的方法
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-05-20 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V14N1P13
Saima Afzal, M. Iqbal, Ayesha Afzal
Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a comparatively new statisticaland computational technique to find hidden components from multivariate statistical data. The technique is also employed as a tool for dimension reduction for efficient data analysis. Reduction in dimensions can be done byassigning ranks to the independent components in some appropriate way and then restricting the data analysis to certain high ranking components only.The problem of determining the number of high ranked ICs that should be retained is the main objective of this paper. A method based upon adjusted coefficient of determination is proposed for the purpose. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated through experimental evaluation on real-world financial time series data.
独立分量分析(ICA)是一种比较新的统计计算技术,用于从多变量统计数据中寻找隐藏分量。该技术还被用作降维工具,以进行有效的数据分析。可以通过以某种适当的方式将等级分配给独立组件,然后将数据分析仅限于某些高等级组件来实现降维。确定应保留的高级别IC的数量是本文的主要目标。为此,提出了一种基于调整决定系数的方法。通过对真实世界金融时间序列数据的实验评估,验证了该方法的性能。
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引用次数: 1
Test-retest Reliability and Measurement Invariance across time of the Quantitative-CHecklist for Autism in Toddler 幼儿自闭症定量检查表的信度和测量随时间的不变性
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-05-20 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V14N1P146
Annalisa Levante, S. Petrocchi, F. Lecciso
The study evaluated the stability over time of the Q-CHAT (i.e., Quantitative-CHecklist for Autism in Toddler), a screening tool for the early detection of Autism. The Q-CHAT is filled by parents when the child is from 18-36 months old, and whether a risk score is found, the clinician refers the child to a more in-depth diagnostic evaluation. Previous studies demonstrated the measure test-retest reliability on a small time interval (1-6 months). Therefore, the present study tested the stability of the scores considering a larger time interval of 18 months. No previous studies have tested its measurement invariance over time. Since the tool is filled by parents during a large time span (18-36 months of life), it is imperative to understand whether there is an invariance over time in their evaluations. The Italian version of the Q-CHAT was completed by 282 parents of children with no pre-existing signs of risk of Autism. The Q-CHAT was administered when children were 18 months (T1) and then 18 months later (T2). The intraclass correlation coefficients for the test-retest reliability ranged from sufficient to moderate. The measurement invariance across time revealed a tolerable configural and metric invariance. Contrary, the scalar invariance was not met meaning that the means of the constructs are not invariant over time. The findings give a further demonstration of the reliability of the Q-CHAT. They give evidence that changes in the scores would reflect real changes in the construct itself, and not in the way individuals interpret the measure items.
本研究评估了Q-CHAT(即幼儿自闭症定量检查表)的稳定性,这是一种早期发现自闭症的筛查工具。当孩子18-36个月大时,家长填写Q-CHAT,如果发现风险评分,临床医生会让孩子进行更深入的诊断评估。以往的研究表明,在较小的时间间隔(1-6个月)内测量的重测信度。因此,本研究考虑更大的时间间隔18个月来检验得分的稳定性。以前没有研究测试过它随时间的测量不变性。由于该工具是由父母在很长一段时间内(18-36个月)填写的,因此有必要了解他们的评估是否存在随时间的不变性。意大利版的Q-CHAT是由282名父母完成的,他们的孩子之前没有自闭症的迹象。在儿童18个月(T1)和18个月(T2)时进行Q-CHAT。重测信度的类内相关系数范围从充分到中等。跨越时间的测量不变性揭示了一个可容忍的结构和度量不变性。相反,不满足标量不变性意味着构念的均值不随时间而不变。研究结果进一步证明了Q-CHAT的可靠性。他们提供的证据表明,分数的变化反映了结构本身的真实变化,而不是个人解释测量项目的方式。
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引用次数: 0
Generalized Quasi Lindley Distribution: Theoretical Properties, Estimation Methods, and Applications 广义拟林德利分布:理论性质、估计方法及应用
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-05-20 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V14N1P167
A. Al-Omari, SidAhmed Benchiha
In this paper, we introduce a new continuous distribution of two parameterscalled as a generalized Quasi Lindley distribution (GQLD). The GQLD is asum of two independent Quasi Lindley distributed random variables. Compre-hensive statistical properties of the GQLD are provided in closed forms includesmoments, reliability analysis, stochastic ordering, stress-strength reliability, andthe distribution of order statistics. The parameters of the new distribution areestimated by the maximum likelihood, maximum product of spacings, ordinaryleast squares, weighted least squares, Cramer-von-Mises, and Anderson-Darlingmethods are considered. A simulation study is conducted to investigate theeciency of the proposed estimators and applications to real data sets are pro-vided.
本文引入了一种新的双参数连续分布,称为广义拟林德利分布(GQLD)。GQLD是两个独立的拟林德利分布随机变量的和。以封闭的形式给出了GQLD的综合统计特性,包括矩、可靠度分析、随机排序、应力-强度可靠度和有序统计量的分布。新分布的参数通过最大似然、最大间距积、普通最小二乘、加权最小二乘、克莱默-冯-米塞斯和安德森-达林方法进行估计。通过仿真研究验证了所提估计器的有效性,并给出了在实际数据集上的应用。
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引用次数: 4
Variable selection in gamma regression model using chaotic firefly algorithm with application in chemometrics 混沌萤火虫算法在回归模型中的变量选择及其在化学计量学中的应用
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-05-20 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V14N1P266
Ahmed Alkhateeb, Z. Algamal
Variable selection is a very helpful procedure for improving computational speed and prediction accuracy by identifying the most important variables that related to the response variable. Regression modeling has received much attention in several science fields. Firefly algorithm is one of the recently efficient proposed nature-inspired algorithms that can efficiently be employed for variable selection. In this work, chaotic firefly algorithm is proposed to perform variable selection for gamma regression model.  A real data application related to the chemometrics is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed method in terms of prediction accuracy and variable selection criteria. Further, its performance is compared with other methods. The results proved the efficiency of our proposed methods and it outperforms other popular methods.
变量选择是通过识别与响应变量相关的最重要变量来提高计算速度和预测精度的一个非常有用的过程。回归建模在许多科学领域受到了广泛的关注。萤火虫算法是最近提出的一种高效的自然启发算法,可以有效地用于变量选择。在这项工作中,提出了混沌萤火虫算法来进行伽马回归模型的变量选择。通过与化学计量学相关的实际数据应用,从预测精度和变量选择标准两方面对所提出方法的性能进行了评价。并与其他方法进行了性能比较。实验结果证明了该方法的有效性,并优于其他常用方法。
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引用次数: 1
Does the elimination of work flexibility contribute to reducing wage inequality? Empirical evidence from Ecuador 消除工作灵活性是否有助于减少工资不平等?厄瓜多尔的经验证据
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-05-20 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V14N1P58
Byron Quito, Pablo Ponce, M. C. D. Río-Rama, J. Álvarez‐García
From the empirical point of view, measures that promote work flexibility increase income inequalities and unemployment rates in the long-term, as well as promoting employment precariousness and the informality of the labor sector. The objective of the present work is to investigate the effect on wage inequality of eliminating work flexibility, which was undertaken in Ecuador in 2008. A two-way effect econometric model was applied with panel data. Data from the 21 provinces of Ecuador covering the period of 2007-2018 were obtained from the National Employment, Unemployment and Under-Employment Survey (ENEMDU) of the National Statistical and Census Institute (INEC). The results suggest that the elimination of work flexibility had a significant and negative effect on inequality; the policy was effective in reducing inequality. This result is significant for all the years subsequent to the introduction of these measures, although with variations according to regional and economic characteristics. Policies aimed at reducing inequality should focus on improving workers' bargaining power and on generating an environment that favors increasing levels of formality.
从经验的角度来看,促进工作灵活性的措施会长期加剧收入不平等和失业率,并促进就业的不稳定和劳动力部门的非正规性。本工作的目的是调查2008年在厄瓜多尔开展的消除工作灵活性对工资不平等的影响。采用面板数据建立了双向效应计量经济模型。厄瓜多尔21个省2007-2018年期间的数据来自国家统计和人口普查研究所的全国就业、失业和就业不足调查。研究结果表明,消除工作灵活性对不平等产生了显著的负面影响;这项政策有效地减少了不平等现象。这一结果在采取这些措施后的所有年份都是重要的,尽管根据地区和经济特征有所不同。旨在减少不平等的政策应侧重于提高工人的议价能力,并创造一个有利于提高正式程度的环境。
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引用次数: 0
Almost unbiased ridge estimator in the count data regression models 计数数据回归模型中的几乎无偏岭估计
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-05-20 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V14N1P44
F. Noeel, Z. Algamal
The ridge estimator has been consistently demonstrated to be an attractive shrinkage method to reduce the effects of multicollinearity. The Poisson regression negative binomial regression models are well-known model in application when the response variable is count data. However, it is known that multicollinearity negatively affects the variance of maximum likelihood estimator of the count regression coefficients. To address this problem, a count data ridge estimator has been proposed by numerous researchers. In this paper, an almost unbiased regression estimator is proposed and derived. Our Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that the proposed estimator can bring significant improvement relative to other existing estimators. In addition, the real application results demonstrate that the proposed estimator outperforms both negative binomial ridge regression and maximum likelihood estimators in terms of predictive performance.
脊估计量一直被证明是一种有吸引力的收缩方法,可以减少多重共线性的影响。当响应变量为计数数据时,泊松回归负二项回归模型是应用中众所周知的模型。然而,已知多重共线性对计数回归系数的最大似然估计的方差有负面影响。为了解决这个问题,许多研究人员提出了一种计数数据岭估计器。本文提出并导出了一个几乎无偏回归估计量。我们的蒙特卡罗模拟结果表明,相对于其他现有的估计量,所提出的估计量可以带来显著的改进。此外,实际应用结果表明,所提出的估计量在预测性能方面优于负二项岭回归和最大似然估计量。
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引用次数: 6
Extended asymmetry model based on logit transformation and decomposition of symmetry for square contingency tables with ordered categories 一类有序列联表的基于logit变换和对称分解的扩展不对称模型
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-05-20 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V14N1P1
Kengo Fujisawa, Jin Kinoshita, Kouji Tahata
The issues of symmetry (or asymmetry) arises naturally for the analysis of square contingency tables. Many existing asymmetry models do not have the constraints on the main diagonal cells. Thus, the observations on the main diagonal cells do not contribute to the likelihood ratio chi-squared test statistics. Herein we propose a model that indicates the asymmetry for the log odds.It can utilize the information in the main diagonal cells. Also, the symmetry model is separated into some models including the proposed model.
对称(或不对称)的问题在分析方形列联表时自然出现。许多现有的不对称模型没有对主对角线单元的约束。因此,主对角线单元格上的观测值对似然比卡方检验统计量没有贡献。在此,我们提出了一个模型,表明对数赔率的不对称性。它可以利用主对角线单元格中的信息。同时,将对称模型分解为若干模型,包括本文提出的模型。
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引用次数: 0
On Combining Independent Tests In Case Of Log-Logistic Distribution 对数逻辑分布情况下独立检验的组合
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-05-20 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V14N1P217
Abedel-Qader Al-Masri, Noor Al-Momani
Bahadur's stochastic comparison of asymptotic relative efficiency of combining infinitely independent tests in case of log-logistic distribution is proposed. Six free-distribution combination producers namely; Fisher, logistic, sum of p-values, inverse normal, Tippett's method and maximum of p-values were studied. Several comparisons among the six procedures using the exact Bahadur's slopes were obtained. These non-parametric procedures depend on the p-value of the individual tests combined.
提出了对数逻辑分布情况下组合无穷独立检验渐近相对效率的Bahadur随机比较。六个免费发行的组合生产商,即;研究了Fisher、logistic、p值之和、逆正规、Tippett方法和p值最大值。使用精确的Bahadur斜率对六种程序进行了几次比较。这些非参数程序取决于单个测试组合的p值。
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引用次数: 2
Functional cluster and canonical correlation analysis of EU countries by number of daily deaths and stringency index during Covid-19 pandemic 基于新冠肺炎大流行期间每日死亡人数和严格指数的欧盟国家功能聚类和典型相关分析
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-05-20 DOI: 10.1285/i20705948v14n1p197
I. Keser, Ipek Deveci Kocakoç
The danger of a global pandemic, such as the new Coronavirus (Covid-19),is obvious. This study aims to investigate the behavior and relationship of thenumber of daily new conrmed deaths per million and the stringency indexof twenty-seven European Union (EU) countries by utilizing functional clusteranalysis and functional canonical correlation analysis. Functional clusteranalysis was used to observe how countries cluster together according to dailydeaths during the time interval between March and July 2020. Functionalcanonical correlation analysis was also utilized to measure the correlationbetween the frequency index and daily deaths, and also to determine therelative positions of countries concerning their respective variability structure.The data is obtained from OWID. Here, it is seen that Italy, Spain,Belgium, and France are particularly aected by the pandemic during thetime interval within the EU countries, and the course of daily deaths is in adierent position compared to other EU countries. At the same time, a veryhigh relationship emerged between the stringency index and daily deaths asexpected.
新型冠状病毒(新冠肺炎)等全球大流行的危险是显而易见的。本研究旨在利用功能聚类分析和功能规范相关分析,调查27个欧盟国家的每日百万新冠死亡人数与严格指数的行为及其关系。功能聚类分析用于观察2020年3月至7月期间各国如何根据每日死亡人数进行聚类。函数统计相关分析也被用来测量频率指数和每日死亡人数之间的相关性,并确定各国对各自变异结构的相对位置。数据是从OWID获得的。在这里,可以看出,意大利、西班牙、比利时和法国在欧盟国家内部的这段时间内尤其受到疫情的影响,与其他欧盟国家相比,每日死亡人数处于不同的位置。与此同时,严格指数与预期的每日死亡人数之间出现了非常高的关系。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Electronic Journal of Applied Statistical Analysis
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