Predicting Academic Difficulty Among First-Semester College Students

Higher education retention research has taken on renewed importance in recent years with support for standardized entrance exams waning and student loan debts commanding social and political attention. Economic pressures have further exasperated college attrition and push researchers to better identify at-risk students before they experience academic difficulty. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive quality of precollege academic motivation, self-efficacy for learning, learner autonomy, and perceived social support on first-semester academic outcome. Participants completed established surveys assessing the four variables prior to the start of the Fall 2021 semester. Fall semester academic outcome was obtained at the conclusion of the semester with students naturally differentiating into one of two categories: satisfactory academic standing or academic probation. Discriminant analysis was performed to determine if the four predictor variables could reliably predict first-semester academic outcome. Results indicated that the variables could accurately predict first-semester academic outcomes with 77.8% classification accuracy. Academic motivation was found to have a negligible predictive impact with self-efficacy for learning, learner autonomy, and perceived social support maintaining the same predictive accuracy in its absence. Implications for admissions and academic support practice are discussed.