非洲舆论

IF 1.2 4区 社会学 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Political Science Pub Date : 2020-09-24 DOI:10.1093/obo/9780199756223-0318
Jeffrey Conroy-Krutz
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在过去二十年中,衡量非洲公众舆论的项目大幅增加。早期的数据收集工作侧重于卫生和经济发展,在20世纪90年代末之前,衡量公众舆论的尝试有限。随着冷战后政治自由化浪潮席卷欧洲大陆,以及政府对言论自由和调查研究的限制放松,可能性扩大。然而,对公众舆论的了解仍然参差不齐;更多的调查是在更富裕、更稳定、更民主的国家进行的。各种行动者正在领导这些努力。学术和研究组织一直站在最前沿,自1999年以来,Afrobarometer在约三分之二的非洲国家进行了调查,是最突出的。大多数研究都是由营利性公司、媒体和政治运动进行的,许多结果从未公开发布。非洲民意调查的增长在许多领域产生了重要影响。学术界已经发展并测试了关于非洲人如何应对和塑造其政治和经济体系的新理论,一些长期存在的理论也受到了新的经验证据的挑战。候选人和政党在制定动员性和说服性的竞选策略时,试图衡量公众舆论。选举观察员使用投票前后收集的调查数据来评估官方结果是否符合公民的偏好。国际和国内政策制定者越来越多地使用非洲的民意数据来确定经济和政治发展的优先事项,并评估各种计划的有效性。然而,有证据表明,非洲的调查企业正变得越来越政治化,一些官员试图阻止公布可能令人尴尬的结果,或阻止调查完全进行,其他政治行为者在不喜欢数据显示时攻击调查组织。随着在非洲进行民意调查的组织在面对新技术和不断变化的政治环境时修改其战略,关于非洲人对其国家如何治理和应该如何治理的看法的数据不断增加,这将继续从根本上改变学术理解、决策和实际政治竞争。
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Public Opinion in Africa
Projects to measure public opinion in Africa have increased considerably in the last two decades. Earlier data-collection efforts focused on health and economic development, with limited attempts to gauge public opinion before the late 1990s. Possibilities expanded as a wave of political liberalizations swept the continent after the Cold War, and as government limitations on speech freedoms and survey research loosened. Knowledge about public opinion remains uneven, however; more surveys are conducted in wealthier, more stable, and more democratic countries. Various actors are leading these efforts. Academic and research organizations have been at the forefront, with Afrobarometer, which has conducted surveys in about two-thirds of African countries since 1999, the most prominent. The majority of studies are conducted by for-profit companies, media houses, and political campaigns, and many results are never publicly released. The growth in surveys of public opinion in Africa has had important ramifications across a number of realms. Academics have developed and tested new theories on how Africans respond to and shape their political and economic systems, and some long-standing theories have been challenged with newly available empirical evidence. Candidates and parties attempt to measure public opinion as they develop mobilizational and persuasive campaign strategies. Election observers have used survey data collected before and after voting to assess whether official results comport with citizens’ preferences. And international and domestic policymakers have increasingly used public opinion data from Africa to determine economic and political development priorities, and to assess the effectiveness of various programs. However, there is evidence that the survey enterprise in Africa is becoming increasingly politicized, with some officials attempting to block the release of potentially embarrassing results, or preventing surveys from being conducted altogether, and other political actors attacking survey organizations when they do not like what the data show. As organizations conducting public opinion surveys in Africa modify their strategies in the face of new technologies and changing political contexts, the ever-increasing availability of data on what Africans think about how their countries are and should be governed continues to fundamentally change academic understanding, policymaking, and actual political competition.
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来源期刊
Political Science
Political Science POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
0.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
13
期刊介绍: Political Science publishes high quality original scholarly works in the broad field of political science. Submission of articles with a regional focus on New Zealand and the Asia-Pacific is particularly encouraged, but content is not limited to this focus. Contributions are invited from across the political science discipline, including from the fields of international relations, comparative politics, political theory and public administration. Proposals for collections of articles on a common theme or debate to be published as special issues are welcome, as well as individual submissions.
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