以天气指数为基础的保险在葡萄栽培中作为气象风险管理的替代方案

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Wine Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI:10.1016/j.wep.2019.07.002
Andrea Martínez Salgueiro
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引用次数: 10

摘要

本文探讨了两种基于天气指数的保险计划的对冲潜力,这些保险计划是为里亚斯·拜哈斯受保护原产地指定(西班牙)设计的。第一种工具涵盖极端和非极端天气事件,而第二种工具只涵盖极端气象状态。提出了与葡萄产量最相关的两个生物气候指标作为基础:Branas, Bernon和Levadoux (BBL)和rib - gayon - Peynaud热液尺度(RGP)。然后用两种不同的方法方法对产量-天气依赖性进行建模:copula和线性回归。为了评估风险降低潜力,基于真实数据和模拟数据进行了对冲有效性分析。该模型使用方差和预期不足作为风险度量。结果表明,两种保险方案都具有较高的套期保值能力,特别是基于RGP的第一种保险方案。这一评价也揭示了copula技术优于线性回归。总的来说,研究结果表明,针对能够指示不利天气事件的生物气候指数的政策的实施可以显著减轻葡萄栽培中与天气相关的产量变化。
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Weather index-based insurance as a meteorological risk management alternative in viticulture

This article explores the hedging potential of two weather index-based insurance programmes designed for the Rias Baixas Protected Designation of Origin (Spain). The first alternative insures both extreme and non-extreme weather events, while the second instrument covers exclusively extreme meteorological states. Two bioclimatic indicators computed for the period most correlated to grape yields are proposed as underlyings: the Branas, Bernon and Levadoux (BBL) and the Ribéreau-Gayon and Peynaud hydrothermal scale (RGP). Yield-weather dependence is then modelled with two different methodological approaches: copulas and linear regression. To asses the risk reducing potential, a hedging effectiveness analysis based on real and simulated data is carried out. The model uses variance and expected shortfall as risk measures. The results attained point out the high hedging ability of both insurance programmes, especially of the first of them based on RGP. This appraisal also reveals that the copula technique outperforms linear regression. Overall, the study results suggest that the implementation of policies geared to bioclimatic indices able to signal adverse weather events can significantly mitigate weather-related yield variations in viticulture.

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来源期刊
Wine Economics and Policy
Wine Economics and Policy Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)
CiteScore
2.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
28 weeks
期刊最新文献
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