J. Baldwin, Chia-ying Lee, B. Walsh, S. Camargo, A. Sobel
{"title":"热带气旋风险模型中的脆弱性:菲律宾案例研究","authors":"J. Baldwin, Chia-ying Lee, B. Walsh, S. Camargo, A. Sobel","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0049.1","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\nThe authors describe a tropical cyclone risk model for the Philippines, using methods that are open-source and can be straightforwardly generalized to other countries. Wind fields derived from historical observations, as well as those from an environmentally-forced tropical cyclone hazard model are combined with data representing exposed value and vulnerability to determine asset losses. Exposed value is represented by the LitPop dataset, which assumes total asset value is distributed across a country following population density and nightlights data. Vulnerability is assumed to follow a functional form previously proposed by Emanuel (2011), with free parameters chosen by a sensitivity analysis in which simulated and historical reported damages are compared for different parameter values, and further constrained by information from household surveys about regional building characteristics. Use of different vulnerability parameters for the region around Manila yields much better agreement between simulated and actually reported losses than does a single set of parameters for the entire country. Despite the improvements from regionally refined vulnerability, the model predicts no losses for a substantial number of destructive historical storms, a difference the authors hypothesize is due to the use of wind speed as the sole metric of tropical cyclone hazard, omitting explicit representation of storm surge and/or rainfall. Bearing these limitations in mind, this model can be used to estimate return levels for tropical cyclone-caused wind hazards and asset losses for regions across the Philippines, relevant to some disaster risk reduction and management tasks; this model also provides a platform for further development of open-source tropical cyclone risk modeling.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2023-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Vulnerability in a Tropical Cyclone Risk Model: Philippines Case Study\",\"authors\":\"J. Baldwin, Chia-ying Lee, B. Walsh, S. Camargo, A. Sobel\",\"doi\":\"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0049.1\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\nThe authors describe a tropical cyclone risk model for the Philippines, using methods that are open-source and can be straightforwardly generalized to other countries. Wind fields derived from historical observations, as well as those from an environmentally-forced tropical cyclone hazard model are combined with data representing exposed value and vulnerability to determine asset losses. Exposed value is represented by the LitPop dataset, which assumes total asset value is distributed across a country following population density and nightlights data. Vulnerability is assumed to follow a functional form previously proposed by Emanuel (2011), with free parameters chosen by a sensitivity analysis in which simulated and historical reported damages are compared for different parameter values, and further constrained by information from household surveys about regional building characteristics. Use of different vulnerability parameters for the region around Manila yields much better agreement between simulated and actually reported losses than does a single set of parameters for the entire country. Despite the improvements from regionally refined vulnerability, the model predicts no losses for a substantial number of destructive historical storms, a difference the authors hypothesize is due to the use of wind speed as the sole metric of tropical cyclone hazard, omitting explicit representation of storm surge and/or rainfall. Bearing these limitations in mind, this model can be used to estimate return levels for tropical cyclone-caused wind hazards and asset losses for regions across the Philippines, relevant to some disaster risk reduction and management tasks; this model also provides a platform for further development of open-source tropical cyclone risk modeling.\",\"PeriodicalId\":48971,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Weather Climate and Society\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-03-08\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Weather Climate and Society\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0049.1\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Weather Climate and Society","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0049.1","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Vulnerability in a Tropical Cyclone Risk Model: Philippines Case Study
The authors describe a tropical cyclone risk model for the Philippines, using methods that are open-source and can be straightforwardly generalized to other countries. Wind fields derived from historical observations, as well as those from an environmentally-forced tropical cyclone hazard model are combined with data representing exposed value and vulnerability to determine asset losses. Exposed value is represented by the LitPop dataset, which assumes total asset value is distributed across a country following population density and nightlights data. Vulnerability is assumed to follow a functional form previously proposed by Emanuel (2011), with free parameters chosen by a sensitivity analysis in which simulated and historical reported damages are compared for different parameter values, and further constrained by information from household surveys about regional building characteristics. Use of different vulnerability parameters for the region around Manila yields much better agreement between simulated and actually reported losses than does a single set of parameters for the entire country. Despite the improvements from regionally refined vulnerability, the model predicts no losses for a substantial number of destructive historical storms, a difference the authors hypothesize is due to the use of wind speed as the sole metric of tropical cyclone hazard, omitting explicit representation of storm surge and/or rainfall. Bearing these limitations in mind, this model can be used to estimate return levels for tropical cyclone-caused wind hazards and asset losses for regions across the Philippines, relevant to some disaster risk reduction and management tasks; this model also provides a platform for further development of open-source tropical cyclone risk modeling.
期刊介绍:
Weather, Climate, and Society (WCAS) publishes research that encompasses economics, policy analysis, political science, history, and institutional, social, and behavioral scholarship relating to weather and climate, including climate change. Contributions must include original social science research, evidence-based analysis, and relevance to the interactions of weather and climate with society.