热带气旋风险模型中的脆弱性:菲律宾案例研究

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Weather Climate and Society Pub Date : 2023-03-08 DOI:10.1175/wcas-d-22-0049.1
J. Baldwin, Chia-ying Lee, B. Walsh, S. Camargo, A. Sobel
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引用次数: 2

摘要

作者描述了菲律宾的热带气旋风险模型,使用的方法是开源的,可以直接推广到其他国家。根据历史观测以及环境强迫热带气旋危害模型得出的风场与代表暴露价值和脆弱性的数据相结合,以确定资产损失。暴露价值由LitPop数据集表示,该数据集假设总资产价值根据人口密度和夜灯数据分布在全国各地。假设脆弱性遵循Emanuel(2011)先前提出的功能形式,通过敏感性分析选择自由参数,在敏感性分析中,对不同参数值的模拟和历史报告的损坏进行比较,并进一步受到有关区域建筑特征的家庭调查信息的约束。对马尼拉周围地区使用不同的脆弱性参数,模拟损失和实际报告损失之间的一致性要比对整个国家使用一组参数要好得多。尽管区域精细脆弱性有所改善,但该模型预测大量破坏性历史风暴不会造成损失,作者假设这一差异是由于使用风速作为热带气旋风险的唯一衡量标准,省略了风暴潮和/或降雨量的明确表示。考虑到这些限制,该模型可用于估计菲律宾各地热带气旋造成的风危害和资产损失的回报水平,与一些减少和管理灾害风险的任务有关;该模型还为开源热带气旋风险建模的进一步发展提供了一个平台。
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Vulnerability in a Tropical Cyclone Risk Model: Philippines Case Study
The authors describe a tropical cyclone risk model for the Philippines, using methods that are open-source and can be straightforwardly generalized to other countries. Wind fields derived from historical observations, as well as those from an environmentally-forced tropical cyclone hazard model are combined with data representing exposed value and vulnerability to determine asset losses. Exposed value is represented by the LitPop dataset, which assumes total asset value is distributed across a country following population density and nightlights data. Vulnerability is assumed to follow a functional form previously proposed by Emanuel (2011), with free parameters chosen by a sensitivity analysis in which simulated and historical reported damages are compared for different parameter values, and further constrained by information from household surveys about regional building characteristics. Use of different vulnerability parameters for the region around Manila yields much better agreement between simulated and actually reported losses than does a single set of parameters for the entire country. Despite the improvements from regionally refined vulnerability, the model predicts no losses for a substantial number of destructive historical storms, a difference the authors hypothesize is due to the use of wind speed as the sole metric of tropical cyclone hazard, omitting explicit representation of storm surge and/or rainfall. Bearing these limitations in mind, this model can be used to estimate return levels for tropical cyclone-caused wind hazards and asset losses for regions across the Philippines, relevant to some disaster risk reduction and management tasks; this model also provides a platform for further development of open-source tropical cyclone risk modeling.
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来源期刊
Weather Climate and Society
Weather Climate and Society METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
13.60%
发文量
95
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Weather, Climate, and Society (WCAS) publishes research that encompasses economics, policy analysis, political science, history, and institutional, social, and behavioral scholarship relating to weather and climate, including climate change. Contributions must include original social science research, evidence-based analysis, and relevance to the interactions of weather and climate with society.
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