影响追尾和非追尾碰撞损伤严重程度因素的时间稳定性:均值和方差异质性的随机参数方法

IF 12.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.amar.2022.100219
Chenzhu Wang , Fei Chen , Yunlong Zhang , Shuyi Wang , Bin Yu , Jianchuan Cheng
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引用次数: 26

摘要

追尾事故已成为严重的全球性问题,伤亡人数不断增加,造成了巨大的财产损失。本研究的目的是探讨追尾和非追尾碰撞中影响损伤严重程度的因素的影响变化以及影响程度随时间的变化。利用2017 - 2019年京沪高速公路3年碰撞数据,采用均值和方差均未观察到异质性的随机参数logit模型,对追尾和非追尾碰撞影响因素的异质性和时间稳定性进行了研究。然后,利用似然比检验对模型的时间稳定性和可转移性进行了评价。此外,还计算了边际效应,以探讨各贡献率变量的时间稳定性和潜在异质性。采用致死性伤害、重度伤害、轻伤和无伤四种可能的伤害严重程度结果,分析了环境、时间、空间、交通、速度、几何和视距特征等多种可能影响伤害严重程度结果的因素。在追尾事故和非追尾事故中观察到相当大的差异,并且促成因素表明,在三年间,这两起事故的统计时间不稳定性显著。研究结果对提高公路追尾和非追尾事故的安全防范水平,制定相应的安全对策具有一定的参考价值。
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Temporal stability of factors affecting injury severity in rear-end and non-rear-end crashes: A random parameter approach with heterogeneity in means and variances

Rear-end crashes have become a serious global issue, with increasing injuries and fatalities accounting for massive property loss. The purpose of this study is to investigate the variation in the influence of factors affecting injury severity in rear-end and non-rear-end crashes and the change in impact degree over time. Using the three-year crash data of the Beijing–Shanghai Expressway from 2017 to 2019, the heterogeneity and temporal stability of contributing factors affecting rear-end and non-rear-end crashes were investigated through a group of random parameter logit models with unobserved heterogeneity in means and variances. Then, the temporal stability and transferability of the models were evaluated using likelihood ratio tests. Moreover, the marginal effects were calculated to explore the temporal stability and potential heterogeneity of the contributing variables from year to year. Using four possible injury severity outcomes, namely, fatal injury, severe injury, minor injury, and no injury, a wide variety of possible factors significantly affecting injury severity outcomes including environmental, temporal, spatial, traffic, speed, geometric, and sight distance characteristics were analyzed. Considerable differences were observed in the rear-end and non-rear-end crashes, and the contributing factors indicated statistically significant temporal instability in both crashes over the three-year period. This study can be of value in promoting highway safety aimed at rear-end and non-rear-end crashes and developing suitable safety countermeasures.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
22.10
自引率
34.10%
发文量
35
审稿时长
24 days
期刊介绍: Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.
期刊最新文献
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