Chenzhu Wang , Fei Chen , Yunlong Zhang , Shuyi Wang , Bin Yu , Jianchuan Cheng
{"title":"影响追尾和非追尾碰撞损伤严重程度因素的时间稳定性:均值和方差异质性的随机参数方法","authors":"Chenzhu Wang , Fei Chen , Yunlong Zhang , Shuyi Wang , Bin Yu , Jianchuan Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2022.100219","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Rear-end crashes have become a serious global issue, with increasing injuries and fatalities accounting for massive property loss. The purpose of this study is to investigate the variation in the influence of factors affecting injury severity in rear-end and non-rear-end crashes and the change in impact degree over time. Using the three-year crash data of the Beijing–Shanghai Expressway from 2017 to 2019, the heterogeneity and temporal stability of contributing factors affecting rear-end and non-rear-end crashes were investigated through a group of random parameter logit models with unobserved heterogeneity in means and variances. Then, the temporal stability and transferability of the models were evaluated using likelihood ratio tests. Moreover, the marginal effects were calculated to explore the temporal stability and potential heterogeneity of the contributing variables from year to year. Using four possible injury severity outcomes, namely, fatal injury, severe injury, minor injury, and no injury, a wide variety of possible factors significantly affecting injury severity outcomes including environmental, temporal, spatial, traffic, speed, geometric, and sight distance characteristics were analyzed. Considerable differences were observed in the rear-end and non-rear-end crashes, and the contributing factors indicated statistically significant temporal instability in both crashes over the three-year period. This study can be of value in promoting highway safety aimed at rear-end and non-rear-end crashes and developing suitable safety countermeasures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.5000,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"26","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Temporal stability of factors affecting injury severity in rear-end and non-rear-end crashes: A random parameter approach with heterogeneity in means and variances\",\"authors\":\"Chenzhu Wang , Fei Chen , Yunlong Zhang , Shuyi Wang , Bin Yu , Jianchuan Cheng\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.amar.2022.100219\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Rear-end crashes have become a serious global issue, with increasing injuries and fatalities accounting for massive property loss. The purpose of this study is to investigate the variation in the influence of factors affecting injury severity in rear-end and non-rear-end crashes and the change in impact degree over time. Using the three-year crash data of the Beijing–Shanghai Expressway from 2017 to 2019, the heterogeneity and temporal stability of contributing factors affecting rear-end and non-rear-end crashes were investigated through a group of random parameter logit models with unobserved heterogeneity in means and variances. Then, the temporal stability and transferability of the models were evaluated using likelihood ratio tests. Moreover, the marginal effects were calculated to explore the temporal stability and potential heterogeneity of the contributing variables from year to year. Using four possible injury severity outcomes, namely, fatal injury, severe injury, minor injury, and no injury, a wide variety of possible factors significantly affecting injury severity outcomes including environmental, temporal, spatial, traffic, speed, geometric, and sight distance characteristics were analyzed. Considerable differences were observed in the rear-end and non-rear-end crashes, and the contributing factors indicated statistically significant temporal instability in both crashes over the three-year period. This study can be of value in promoting highway safety aimed at rear-end and non-rear-end crashes and developing suitable safety countermeasures.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47520,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Analytic Methods in Accident Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":12.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"26\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Analytic Methods in Accident Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665722000082\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665722000082","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
Temporal stability of factors affecting injury severity in rear-end and non-rear-end crashes: A random parameter approach with heterogeneity in means and variances
Rear-end crashes have become a serious global issue, with increasing injuries and fatalities accounting for massive property loss. The purpose of this study is to investigate the variation in the influence of factors affecting injury severity in rear-end and non-rear-end crashes and the change in impact degree over time. Using the three-year crash data of the Beijing–Shanghai Expressway from 2017 to 2019, the heterogeneity and temporal stability of contributing factors affecting rear-end and non-rear-end crashes were investigated through a group of random parameter logit models with unobserved heterogeneity in means and variances. Then, the temporal stability and transferability of the models were evaluated using likelihood ratio tests. Moreover, the marginal effects were calculated to explore the temporal stability and potential heterogeneity of the contributing variables from year to year. Using four possible injury severity outcomes, namely, fatal injury, severe injury, minor injury, and no injury, a wide variety of possible factors significantly affecting injury severity outcomes including environmental, temporal, spatial, traffic, speed, geometric, and sight distance characteristics were analyzed. Considerable differences were observed in the rear-end and non-rear-end crashes, and the contributing factors indicated statistically significant temporal instability in both crashes over the three-year period. This study can be of value in promoting highway safety aimed at rear-end and non-rear-end crashes and developing suitable safety countermeasures.
期刊介绍:
Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.