基于LSTM的太阳能光伏电站输出预测

Dheeraj Kumar Dhaked , Sharad Dadhich , Dinesh Birla
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引用次数: 2

摘要

可再生能源越来越受欢迎,太阳能光伏发电(PV)因其清洁、可负担和丰富而成为最受欢迎的选择。太阳能光伏的能量输出主要基于温度&;辐照度。因此,需要一个基于天气的智能模型来估计太阳能输出,以满足能源需求和决策。预测光伏发电量对能源管理、安全和运营至关重要。除了提高光伏发电厂的输出效率外,还可以通过提高光伏发电站的发电效率来提高电网的稳定性。这项工作的重点是用于预测太阳能发电厂发电量的LSTM和BPNN,据观察,他们的发现在MAE、MAPE、RMSPE和R2得分方面与实际发电量几乎一致。还分析了每个天气季节不同层的LSTM模型比较。比较LSTM和BPNN模型中的误差程度表明,LSTM提供了更准确的预测。
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Power output forecasting of solar photovoltaic plant using LSTM

Renewable energy sources are gaining popularity, where solar photovolaics (PV) being the most preferred option due to its cleanliness, affordability, and abundance. The energy output of solar PV is primarily based on temperature & irradiance. Therefore, a weather-based intelligent model is needed for estimating solar energy output to fulfil energy demand and decision making. Predicting PV power output is essential for energy management, security, and operation. In addition to enhancing the output efficiency of PV power plants, the power grid's stability can be enhanced by enhancing the efficacy of PV power plants' electricity generation. This work focuses on LSTM and BPNN for forecasting solar plant power output and it is observed that their findings are virtually compatible with realistic power production in terms of MAE, MAPE, RMSPE, and R2 score. LSTM model comparisons with different layers for each weather season are also analysed. Comparing the extent of errors in the LSTM and BPNN models reveals that LSTM provides more accurate predictions.

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