使用基于人工智能的视频分析进行实时碰撞风险预测:广义极值理论和自回归综合移动平均模型的统一框架

IF 12.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2023-09-09 DOI:10.1016/j.amar.2023.100302
Fizza Hussain , Yasir Ali , Yuefeng Li , Md Mazharul Haque
{"title":"使用基于人工智能的视频分析进行实时碰撞风险预测:广义极值理论和自回归综合移动平均模型的统一框架","authors":"Fizza Hussain ,&nbsp;Yasir Ali ,&nbsp;Yuefeng Li ,&nbsp;Md Mazharul Haque","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2023.100302","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>With the recent advancements in computer vision and artificial intelligence, traffic conflicts occurring at an intersection and associated traffic characteristics can be obtained at the granular level of a signal cycle in real-time. This capability enables the estimation of the real-time crash risk using sophisticated modelling techniques, e.g., extreme value theory. However, these models are inherently incapable of forecasting the crash risk of future time periods based on the temporal dependency of crash risks. This study proposes a unified framework of extreme value theory and autoregressive integrated moving average models for forecasting crash risks at signalised intersections. At the first level of this framework, a non-stationary generalised extreme value model has been developed to estimate the real-time rear-end crash risk at the signal cycle level using the video data collected from three signalised intersections in Queensland, Australia. To capture the time-varying effect of different traffic conditions on conflict extremes, traffic flow, speed, shockwave area, and platoon ratio covariates are incorporated into the generalised extreme value model. The signal cycle-level crash risks obtained from the first level form a univariate time series, which is modelled using two variants of autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast the crash risk of future signal cycles. Results reveal that the autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables outperforms the model without exogenous variables and can forecast the crash risk for the next 30–35 min with reasonable accuracy. Similarly, results also demonstrate that different crash risk patterns within a typical day are accurately predicted. The proposed framework helps identify the spatiotemporal windows where safety gradually deteriorates over time, thus enabling proactive safety assessment.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100302"},"PeriodicalIF":12.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Real-time crash risk forecasting using Artificial-Intelligence based video analytics: A unified framework of generalised extreme value theory and autoregressive integrated moving average model\",\"authors\":\"Fizza Hussain ,&nbsp;Yasir Ali ,&nbsp;Yuefeng Li ,&nbsp;Md Mazharul Haque\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.amar.2023.100302\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>With the recent advancements in computer vision and artificial intelligence, traffic conflicts occurring at an intersection and associated traffic characteristics can be obtained at the granular level of a signal cycle in real-time. This capability enables the estimation of the real-time crash risk using sophisticated modelling techniques, e.g., extreme value theory. However, these models are inherently incapable of forecasting the crash risk of future time periods based on the temporal dependency of crash risks. This study proposes a unified framework of extreme value theory and autoregressive integrated moving average models for forecasting crash risks at signalised intersections. At the first level of this framework, a non-stationary generalised extreme value model has been developed to estimate the real-time rear-end crash risk at the signal cycle level using the video data collected from three signalised intersections in Queensland, Australia. To capture the time-varying effect of different traffic conditions on conflict extremes, traffic flow, speed, shockwave area, and platoon ratio covariates are incorporated into the generalised extreme value model. The signal cycle-level crash risks obtained from the first level form a univariate time series, which is modelled using two variants of autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast the crash risk of future signal cycles. Results reveal that the autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables outperforms the model without exogenous variables and can forecast the crash risk for the next 30–35 min with reasonable accuracy. Similarly, results also demonstrate that different crash risk patterns within a typical day are accurately predicted. The proposed framework helps identify the spatiotemporal windows where safety gradually deteriorates over time, thus enabling proactive safety assessment.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47520,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Analytic Methods in Accident Research\",\"volume\":\"40 \",\"pages\":\"Article 100302\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":12.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-09-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Analytic Methods in Accident Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665723000374\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665723000374","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1

摘要

随着计算机视觉和人工智能的最新进展,可以在信号周期的细粒度水平上实时获得十字路口发生的交通冲突和相关的交通特征。这种能力使得能够使用复杂的建模技术(例如极值理论)来估计实时碰撞风险。然而,这些模型本质上无法基于碰撞风险的时间依赖性来预测未来时间段的碰撞风险。本研究提出了一个统一的极值理论和自回归综合移动平均模型框架,用于预测信号交叉口的碰撞风险。在该框架的第一个层面上,开发了一个非平稳广义极值模型,以使用从澳大利亚昆士兰的三个信号交叉口收集的视频数据来估计信号周期层面的实时追尾事故风险。为了捕捉不同交通条件对冲突极值的时变影响,将交通流量、速度、冲击波面积和排比协变量纳入广义极值模型。从第一级获得的信号周期级碰撞风险形成一个单变量时间序列,该时间序列使用自回归综合移动平均模型的两个变量进行建模,以预测未来信号周期的碰撞风险。结果表明,具有外生变量的自回归综合移动平均模型优于没有外生变量的模型,能够以合理的精度预测未来30–35分钟的碰撞风险。同样,结果也表明,在一个典型的一天内,不同的碰撞风险模式是准确预测的。所提出的框架有助于识别安全性随时间逐渐恶化的时空窗口,从而实现主动安全评估。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Real-time crash risk forecasting using Artificial-Intelligence based video analytics: A unified framework of generalised extreme value theory and autoregressive integrated moving average model

With the recent advancements in computer vision and artificial intelligence, traffic conflicts occurring at an intersection and associated traffic characteristics can be obtained at the granular level of a signal cycle in real-time. This capability enables the estimation of the real-time crash risk using sophisticated modelling techniques, e.g., extreme value theory. However, these models are inherently incapable of forecasting the crash risk of future time periods based on the temporal dependency of crash risks. This study proposes a unified framework of extreme value theory and autoregressive integrated moving average models for forecasting crash risks at signalised intersections. At the first level of this framework, a non-stationary generalised extreme value model has been developed to estimate the real-time rear-end crash risk at the signal cycle level using the video data collected from three signalised intersections in Queensland, Australia. To capture the time-varying effect of different traffic conditions on conflict extremes, traffic flow, speed, shockwave area, and platoon ratio covariates are incorporated into the generalised extreme value model. The signal cycle-level crash risks obtained from the first level form a univariate time series, which is modelled using two variants of autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast the crash risk of future signal cycles. Results reveal that the autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables outperforms the model without exogenous variables and can forecast the crash risk for the next 30–35 min with reasonable accuracy. Similarly, results also demonstrate that different crash risk patterns within a typical day are accurately predicted. The proposed framework helps identify the spatiotemporal windows where safety gradually deteriorates over time, thus enabling proactive safety assessment.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
22.10
自引率
34.10%
发文量
35
审稿时长
24 days
期刊介绍: Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.
期刊最新文献
Determinants influencing alcohol-related two-vehicle crash severity: A multivariate Bayesian hierarchical random parameters correlated outcomes logit model Effects of sample size on pedestrian crash risk estimation from traffic conflicts using extreme value models Editorial Board A cross-comparison of different extreme value modeling techniques for traffic conflict-based crash risk estimation The role of posted speed limit on pedestrian and bicycle injury severities: An investigation into systematic and unobserved heterogeneities
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1