利用贝叶斯网络通货膨胀因子构建审计人员持续经营意见专家系统

IF 4.1 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS International Journal of Accounting Information Systems Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI:10.1016/j.accinf.2023.100617
Vikram Desai , Anthony C. Bucaro , Joung W. Kim , Rajendra Srivastava , Renu Desai
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引用次数: 1

摘要

我们开发了一个分析模型,作为专家系统开发的第一阶段,以提高审计师对持续经营意见(“GCO”)的了解,并协助其决策过程。我们的方法与开发信息系统的设计科学方法一致,产生了一个初始工件,即数学模型,通过迭代设计科学和行为研究,它可以为基于技术的专家系统提供信息。基于贝叶斯网络,我们的模型提供了关于审计师根据一个、两个或三个可公开观察的财务报表风险因素(净经营亏损、负运营现金流和负营运资本)的增量存在所形成的相互关系对发布GCO的概率的修正或通货膨胀的见解。我们使用2004年至2015年全球气候变化组织的经验数据计算了修正后的概率。结果表明,增量关系(存在一个、两个或三个因素)有效地模拟了专家审计师发布GCO的决策,并表明存在这些代表情境和审计师特定因素的可测量通胀因素。我们还发现,非四大审计师与四大审计师不同地夸大这些因素,以做出发布GCO的决定。
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Toward a better expert system for auditor going concern opinions using Bayesian network inflation factors

We develop an analytical model intended as the first stage in the development of expert systems to improve auditor knowledge in, and assist in the decision process of, Going Concern Opinions (“GCOs”). Our approach is consistent with a design science approach to developing information systems, resulting in an initial artifact, the mathematical model, which can, through iterative design science and behavioral research, inform a technology-based expert system. Based on Bayesian networks, our model provides insights about auditors’ revision, or inflation, of the probability to issue a GCO based on the interrelationship that forms with the incremental existence of one, two, or three publicly observable financial statement risk factors – net operating loss, negative cash flows from operations, and negative working capital. We calculate the revised probabilities using empirical data of GCOs from 2004 to 2015. Results reveal that the incremental relationship (one, two, or three factors present) effectively models expert auditors’ decisions to issue a GCO, and suggests the existence of these measurable inflation factors that represent situational and auditor-specific factors. We also find that Non-Big Four auditors inflate these factors differently than Big Four auditors to arrive at a decision to issue a GCO.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
9.00
自引率
6.50%
发文量
23
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Accounting Information Systems will publish thoughtful, well developed articles that examine the rapidly evolving relationship between accounting and information technology. Articles may range from empirical to analytical, from practice-based to the development of new techniques, but must be related to problems facing the integration of accounting and information technology. The journal will address (but will not limit itself to) the following specific issues: control and auditability of information systems; management of information technology; artificial intelligence research in accounting; development issues in accounting and information systems; human factors issues related to information technology; development of theories related to information technology; methodological issues in information technology research; information systems validation; human–computer interaction research in accounting information systems. The journal welcomes and encourages articles from both practitioners and academicians.
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