妇女受教育程度、婚姻和生育:来自1944年《美国军人权利法案》的证据

IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Explorations in Economic History Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI:10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101539
Conor Lennon
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在当代环境中,妇女收入的增加通常与结婚率的降低和生育率的降低有关。女性收入增加的一种方式是通过教育程度的变化。为了研究受教育程度是否会影响历史背景下的婚姻和生育选择,我依赖于1944年《美国军人权利法案》(G.I. Bill)对二战女性退伍军人受教育程度的影响。利用1980年长期人口普查的数据,我首先表明,二战退伍军人的身份与结婚率下降、初婚年龄增加和生育率下降有关,这表明与《退伍军人法案》相关的教育可能对退伍军人女性产生了重要影响。然后,我用《退伍军人权利法案》公布时的年龄作为工具,在女性退伍军人中建立受教育程度对婚姻和生育结果的因果关系。我的工具变量估计表明,《退伍军人法案》导致的受教育程度每提高一年,结婚的可能性就会降低8个百分点,初婚年龄会提高4.7岁,子女数量会减少0.67个百分点。使用《退伍军人权利法案》公布时的年龄作为衡量标准是有效的,因为福利不可能被轻易预测到,女性必须年满21岁才能入伍,而且一个人的《退伍军人权利法案》福利的慷慨程度取决于二战的服役年限。
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Women’s educational attainment, marriage, and fertility: Evidence from the 1944 G.I. Bill

In contemporary settings, greater earnings among women are typically associated with reduced marriage rates and lower fertility. One way that women’s earnings may increase is via changes in educational attainment. To study whether educational attainment affects marriage and fertility choices in a historical setting, I rely on the variation in educational attainment among female WWII veterans created by the 1944 G.I. Bill. Using data from the long-form 1980 census, I first show that WWII veteran status is associated with reduced rates of marriage, increased age at first marriage, and lower fertility, which suggests that G.I. Bill-related education could have had an important effect for veteran women. I then use age at the time of the G.I. Bill announcement as an instrument to establish a causal effect of educational attainment on marriage and fertility outcomes among female veterans. My instrumental variable estimates suggest that each year of G.I. Bill-induced educational attainment is associated with an 8 percentage point decrease in the probability of ever getting married, a 4.7 year increase in age at first marriage, and a 0.67 reduction in the number of children. Using age at the time of the G.I. Bill announcement as an instrument is valid because the benefits could not have been easily anticipated, women had to be 21 to enlist, and the generosity of one’s G.I. Bill benefits depended on the number of years of WWII service.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
8.70%
发文量
27
期刊介绍: Explorations in Economic History provides broad coverage of the application of economic analysis to historical episodes. The journal has a tradition of innovative applications of theory and quantitative techniques, and it explores all aspects of economic change, all historical periods, all geographical locations, and all political and social systems. The journal includes papers by economists, economic historians, demographers, geographers, and sociologists. Explorations in Economic History is the only journal where you will find "Essays in Exploration." This unique department alerts economic historians to the potential in a new area of research, surveying the recent literature and then identifying the most promising issues to pursue.
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