量化气候变化下天气模式对北海风力发电和斜坡事件的影响

IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2023-07-20 DOI:10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100113
Bedassa R. Cheneka , Simon J. Watson , Sukanta Basu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

关于气候变化对北海地区海上风电生产和风力发电坡道的总体影响的研究只有少数发表。本研究通过使用自组织图(SOM)对环流模式进行分类,重点研究了未来气候下预期风力发电和风力坡道的特征。SOM用于将高分辨率CMIP5-CORDEX海平面压力数据聚类到30个欧洲地区的天气模式。这些模式用于更好地了解风力发电的趋势和任何潜在的变化。预计未来高压系统的发生频率将增加,持续时间至少为24小时。而低压系统则有相反的减少趋势。虽然有初步的证据表明风力坡道减少了,但没有明显的证据表明北海风力发电容量因子发生了变化。每年的能源生产被认为是由西风、西南风或西北风的少数天气模式主导的。预计未来的风力发电将越来越少地来自西风,而更多地来自西南和西北风。上升事件主要与强烈的西南风或气压梯度较弱的天气模式有关。斜坡下降事件与更多的西北流有更强的联系。预估在未来气候中,与弱气压梯度相关的上升事件将减少。
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Quantifying the impacts of synoptic weather patterns on North Sea wind power production and ramp events under a changing climate

Only a few studies on the overall impact of climate change on offshore wind power production and wind power ramps in the North Sea region have been published. This study focuses on the characteristics of expected wind power production and wind power ramps in the future climate aided by the classification of circulations patterns using a self-organizing map (SOM). A SOM is used to cluster high-resolution CMIP5-CORDEX sea level pressure data into 30 European area weather patterns. These patterns are used to better understand wind power production trends and any potential changes. An increased frequency of occurrence and extended persistence of high pressure systems lasting at least 24 h is projected in the future. Whereas a contrasting reducing tendency for low-pressure systems is estimated. No significant evidence is seen for a change in wind power capacity factor over the North Sea, though tentative evidence is seen for a reduction in wind power ramps. Annual energy production is seen to be dominated by a small number of weather patterns with westerly, south-westerly or north-westerly winds. Future wind power production is projected to become less from westerly winds and more from south-westerly and north-westerly flows. Ramp up events are primarily associated with strong south-westerly winds or weather patterns with a weak pressure gradient. Ramp down events have a stronger association with more north-westerly flow. In a future climate, a reduction in ramp up events associated with weak pressure gradients is projected.

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来源期刊
Energy and climate change
Energy and climate change Global and Planetary Change, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
CiteScore
7.90
自引率
0.00%
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0
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