为死而死:自杀式恐怖分子有自杀倾向的新微观和宏观证据

IF 1.5 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Kyklos Pub Date : 2023-05-02 DOI:10.1111/kykl.12336
Simon Varaine
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引用次数: 0

摘要

自杀式恐怖分子的自我牺牲受制于复杂的无私牺牲模式。然而,一个更简单的解释是,它反映了常见的自杀倾向。本文为这一假说提供了新的微观和宏观证据。在微观层面,本文比较了1948年至2017年美国自杀式和非自杀式恐怖分子的样本。结果表明,自杀恐怖分子更有可能表现出各种既定的自杀风险因素,包括虐待儿童史、父母缺席和关系问题。贝叶斯模型平均值的结果表明,自杀风险因素在解释自杀恐怖主义方面优于其他个体因素(如意识形态和单独参与者恐怖主义)。在宏观层面,本文利用自杀倾向的跨国差异来解释1991-2014年全球自杀和非自杀恐怖袭击的发生率。结果显示,自杀死亡比例较高的国家自杀式袭击发生率较高,但非自杀式袭击的发生率相似。然而,穆斯林的比例等其他背景因素也预测了自杀式恐怖主义的发生率。一些恐怖分子牺牲生命的决定很可能受到了过度理论化的影响。
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Dying to die: New micro and macro evidence that suicide terrorists are suicidal

The self-sacrifice of suicide terrorists is subject to sophisticated models of altruistic sacrifice. Yet, a simpler account is that it reflects common suicidal tendencies. This paper offers new micro and macro evidence supportive of this hypothesis. At the micro level, the paper compares a sample of suicide and non-suicide terrorists in the United States from 1948 to 2017. Results indicate that suicide terrorists are more likely to display various established suicidal risk factors including history of child abuse, absent parent/s, and relationship troubles. Results from Bayesian Model Averaging indicate that suicide risk factors outperform other individual factors (e.g., ideology and lone-actor terrorism) in explaining suicide terrorism. At the macro level, the paper takes advantage of the cross-national variations in suicidal tendencies to explain the incidence of suicide and non-suicide terrorist attacks worldwide from 1991 to 2014. Results reveal that countries with higher share of deaths from suicide display higher incidences of suicide attacks but similar incidences of non-suicide attacks. However, other contextual factors such as the share of Muslims also predict the incidence of suicide terrorism. The decision of some terrorists to sacrifice their life may well have been subject to over-theorization.

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来源期刊
Kyklos
Kyklos ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
10.50%
发文量
38
期刊介绍: KYKLOS views economics as a social science and as such favours contributions dealing with issues relevant to contemporary society, as well as economic policy applications. Since its inception nearly 60 years ago, KYKLOS has earned a worldwide reputation for publishing a broad range of articles from international scholars on real world issues. KYKLOS encourages unorthodox, original approaches to topical economic and social issues with a multinational application, and promises to give fresh insights into topics of worldwide interest
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