短期主义的宏观影响

IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Econometrica Pub Date : 2023-10-03 DOI:10.3982/ECTA15420
Stephen J. Terry
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引用次数: 54

摘要

R&;D投资降低了当前的利润,因此达到利润目标的短期压力可能会扭曲R&;D.在数据中,刚刚达到华尔街预测的公司的R&;D增长和随后的创新,而刚刚失去的管理者获得的薪酬更低。但是,如果聚合或均衡抑制了短期主义扭曲的影响,那么短期主义扭曲可能在数量上并不重要。因此,我建立并估计了一个定量的内生增长模型,在该模型中,短期主义作为对冲突管理者的约束自然产生,并将公司价值提升约1%。但短期主义降低了R&;D、 以及R&;由于包括知识溢出和不完全竞争在内的标准渠道,D高于私人回报。因此,在宏观层面上,短期主义扭曲每年将经济增长放缓5个基点,并将社会福利降低约1%。
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The Macro Impact of Short-Termism

R&D investment reduces current profits, so short-term pressure to hit profit targets may distort R&D. In the data, firms just meeting Wall Street forecasts have lower R&D growth and subsequent innovation, while managers just missing receive lower pay. But short-termist distortions might not quantitatively matter if aggregation or equilibrium dampen their impact. So I build and estimate a quantitative endogenous growth model in which short-termism arises naturally as discipline on conflicted managers and boosts firm value by about 1%. But short-termism reduces R&D, and the social return to R&D is higher than the private return due to standard channels including knowledge spillovers and imperfect competition. So at the macro level, short-termist distortions slow growth by 5 basis points yearly and lower social welfare by about 1%.

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来源期刊
Econometrica
Econometrica 社会科学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
3.30%
发文量
75
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Econometrica publishes original articles in all branches of economics - theoretical and empirical, abstract and applied, providing wide-ranging coverage across the subject area. It promotes studies that aim at the unification of the theoretical-quantitative and the empirical-quantitative approach to economic problems and that are penetrated by constructive and rigorous thinking. It explores a unique range of topics each year - from the frontier of theoretical developments in many new and important areas, to research on current and applied economic problems, to methodologically innovative, theoretical and applied studies in econometrics. Econometrica maintains a long tradition that submitted articles are refereed carefully and that detailed and thoughtful referee reports are provided to the author as an aid to scientific research, thus ensuring the high calibre of papers found in Econometrica. An international board of editors, together with the referees it has selected, has succeeded in substantially reducing editorial turnaround time, thereby encouraging submissions of the highest quality. We strongly encourage recent Ph. D. graduates to submit their work to Econometrica. Our policy is to take into account the fact that recent graduates are less experienced in the process of writing and submitting papers.
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