Optimization of differentiated regional land development patterns based on urban expansion simulation—A case in China

The advancing global urbanization puts great pressure on the society and ecosystem, especially in developing countries. Reasonable land-use policies adapted to local conditions are the key issues to prevent disordered urban expansion. Multi-scenario simulation provides a new perspective for differentiated policy formulation based on regional heterogeneity. Regarding the Shaanxi Province, a rapid urbanized area with high spatial heterogeneity in western China, as the study case, we tracked its past land-use changes and predicted the characteristics of urban expansion using the Future Urban-Regional Environment Simulation model. We found that (1) during the past 35 years, built-up land evidently increased accompanied by the loss of cropland, grassland, and unused land. (2) The urban expansion mainly will occur in the areas with flat terrain under three scenarios. (3) The urban expansion will transit into the “requiring land from mountains” pattern in the future, which means that it will gradually spread to areas with higher slopes. (4) Differentiated and optimal development patterns are proposed for different subregions by accounting the loss of ecosystem service in the procedure of urban expansion. This research can help local governments formulate differentiated future macro control of territorial spatial planning to optimize subregional land development.