不确定环境中的决策

IF 1.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Environmetrics Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI:10.1002/env.2767
Noel Cressie
{"title":"不确定环境中的决策","authors":"Noel Cressie","doi":"10.1002/env.2767","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Decision-makers abhor uncertainty, and it is certainly true that the less there is of it the better. However, recognizing that uncertainty is part of the equation, particularly for deciding on environmental policy, is a prerequisite for making wise decisions. Even making no decision is a decision that has consequences, and using the presence of uncertainty as the reason for failing to act is a poor excuse. Statistical science is the science of uncertainty, and it should play a critical role in the decision-making process. This opinion piece focuses on the summit of the knowledge pyramid that starts from data and rises in steps from data to information, from information to knowledge, and finally from knowledge to decisions. Enormous advances have been made in the last 100 years ascending the pyramid, with deviations that have followed different routes. There has generally been a healthy supply of uncertainty quantification along the way but, in a rush to the top, where the decisions are made, uncertainty is often left behind. In my opinion, statistical science needs to be much more pro-active in evolving classical decision theory into a relevant and practical area of decision applications. This article follows several threads, building on the decision-theoretic foundations of loss functions and Bayesian uncertainty.</p>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2022-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2767","citationCount":"4","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Decisions, decisions, decisions in an uncertain environment\",\"authors\":\"Noel Cressie\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/env.2767\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Decision-makers abhor uncertainty, and it is certainly true that the less there is of it the better. However, recognizing that uncertainty is part of the equation, particularly for deciding on environmental policy, is a prerequisite for making wise decisions. Even making no decision is a decision that has consequences, and using the presence of uncertainty as the reason for failing to act is a poor excuse. Statistical science is the science of uncertainty, and it should play a critical role in the decision-making process. This opinion piece focuses on the summit of the knowledge pyramid that starts from data and rises in steps from data to information, from information to knowledge, and finally from knowledge to decisions. Enormous advances have been made in the last 100 years ascending the pyramid, with deviations that have followed different routes. There has generally been a healthy supply of uncertainty quantification along the way but, in a rush to the top, where the decisions are made, uncertainty is often left behind. In my opinion, statistical science needs to be much more pro-active in evolving classical decision theory into a relevant and practical area of decision applications. This article follows several threads, building on the decision-theoretic foundations of loss functions and Bayesian uncertainty.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50512,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Environmetrics\",\"volume\":\"34 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-10-17\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2767\",\"citationCount\":\"4\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Environmetrics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/env.2767\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmetrics","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/env.2767","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4

摘要

决策者痛恨不确定性,当然不确定性越少越好。然而,认识到不确定性是等式的一部分,特别是在决定环境政策时,这是做出明智决定的先决条件。即使不做决定也是有后果的决定,以不确定性为理由不采取行动是一个糟糕的借口。统计科学是一门不确定性科学,它应该在决策过程中发挥关键作用。这篇观点文章聚焦于知识金字塔的顶峰,知识金字塔从数据开始,从数据到信息,从信息到知识,最后从知识到决策,逐级上升。在过去的100年里,攀登金字塔取得了巨大的进步,但也有不同的偏差。在这一过程中,总体上存在着健康的不确定性量化供应,但在决策的高峰期,不确定性往往会被抛在后面。在我看来,统计科学需要更加积极地将经典决策理论发展成为决策应用的相关和实用领域。本文遵循了几个线索,建立在损失函数和贝叶斯不确定性的决策理论基础上。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Decisions, decisions, decisions in an uncertain environment

Decision-makers abhor uncertainty, and it is certainly true that the less there is of it the better. However, recognizing that uncertainty is part of the equation, particularly for deciding on environmental policy, is a prerequisite for making wise decisions. Even making no decision is a decision that has consequences, and using the presence of uncertainty as the reason for failing to act is a poor excuse. Statistical science is the science of uncertainty, and it should play a critical role in the decision-making process. This opinion piece focuses on the summit of the knowledge pyramid that starts from data and rises in steps from data to information, from information to knowledge, and finally from knowledge to decisions. Enormous advances have been made in the last 100 years ascending the pyramid, with deviations that have followed different routes. There has generally been a healthy supply of uncertainty quantification along the way but, in a rush to the top, where the decisions are made, uncertainty is often left behind. In my opinion, statistical science needs to be much more pro-active in evolving classical decision theory into a relevant and practical area of decision applications. This article follows several threads, building on the decision-theoretic foundations of loss functions and Bayesian uncertainty.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Environmetrics
Environmetrics 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
17.60%
发文量
67
审稿时长
18-36 weeks
期刊介绍: Environmetrics, the official journal of The International Environmetrics Society (TIES), an Association of the International Statistical Institute, is devoted to the dissemination of high-quality quantitative research in the environmental sciences. The journal welcomes pertinent and innovative submissions from quantitative disciplines developing new statistical and mathematical techniques, methods, and theories that solve modern environmental problems. Articles must proffer substantive, new statistical or mathematical advances to answer important scientific questions in the environmental sciences, or must develop novel or enhanced statistical methodology with clear applications to environmental science. New methods should be illustrated with recent environmental data.
期刊最新文献
Issue Information Bias correction of daily precipitation from climate models, using the Q-GAM method Issue Information A hierarchical constrained density regression model for predicting cluster-level dose-response Under the mantra: ‘Make use of colorblind friendly graphs’
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1