新冠肺炎期间,航运运费是否存在泡沫?

IF 4.6 3区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Research in Transportation Economics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.retrec.2023.101319
Khalid Khan , Adnan Khurshid , Sinem Derindere Köseoğlu
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引用次数: 2

摘要

这项研究通过广义Supreum增强Dickey Fuller检验检验了疫情期间潜在泡沫的运费。研究结果探索了冠状病毒病(新冠肺炎)期间运费的多重泡沫。此外,结果发现波罗的海干散货指数最具爆炸性,呈现四个泡沫,其次是波罗的海清洁油轮指数。自2021年第二季度以来,这种波动行为更加频繁和明显,主要是受经济复苏的影响。结果发现,波罗的海干指数中有四个泡沫是由对原材料的强劲需求和不确定性限制造成的。此外,波罗的海脏油轮指数的单一泡沫是由油价上涨、浮式储油需求增加以及第二波新限制、油价下跌和船只短缺导致的。对石油产品的需求、物流问题和最高油价是波罗的海清洁油轮指数泡沫的主要决定因素。
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Are there bubbles in shipping freight during COVID-19?

This study examines the potential bubbles' shipping freight rates during the pandemic through the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. The results explore multiple bubbles in the freight rates during corona disease (COVID-19). Moreover, the result finds that Baltic Dry Index is the most explosive and shows four bubbles, followed by Baltic Clean Tanker Index. The volatile behavior has been more frequent and pronounced since the second quarter of 2021, mainly instigated by the economic recovery. The results detect four bubbles in Baltic Dry Index caused by strong demand for raw materials and uncertainty restrictions. Furthermore, a single bubble in the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index is caused by the increasing oil price, growing demand for floating storage while burst due to new restrictions of the second wave, declining oil prices, and shortages of vessels. The need for oil products, logistical problems and the highest oil prices are the leading determinants of Baltic Clean Tanker index bubbles.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.40
自引率
2.60%
发文量
59
审稿时长
60 days
期刊介绍: Research in Transportation Economics is a journal devoted to the dissemination of high quality economics research in the field of transportation. The content covers a wide variety of topics relating to the economics aspects of transportation, government regulatory policies regarding transportation, and issues of concern to transportation industry planners. The unifying theme throughout the papers is the application of economic theory and/or applied economic methodologies to transportation questions.
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