Research in Transportation Economics最新文献

Did transportation electrification help to reduce transportation sector CO2 emissions? A study considering the dynamic electricity carbon emission factor 交通电气化是否有助于减少交通部门的二氧化碳排放？考虑动态电力碳排放因子的研究

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101698

Guiwen Liu, Jia Wang, Pengpeng Xu, Rundong Chen, Haona Yao

Transportation electrification is a key strategy for achieving carbon neutrality goals. However, the contributions of transportation electrification to carbon emissions (CRE) depend on the degree of power grid decarbonization. This study employed the Kaya Identity, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model, and Moran's Index to examine CRE and its spatial clustering characteristics across China's seven power grid regions from 2004 to 2022, covering 30 provinces. Results indicated that the transportation electrification rate (EE) remained stable in the early years but increased gradually after 2016, reaching 12.35 % by 2022. Transportation electrification primarily impacts carbon emissions through three aspects: electricity substitution, electricity decarbonization, and energy efficiency improvement. Transportation electrification resulted in an additional 9.94 Mt of carbon emissions from 2004 to 2022, with the electricity substitution effect being the primary contributing factor. Most provinces have not achieved carbon reductions through transportation electrification. This outcome is mainly because these provinces have placed greater emphasis on the quantity of transportation electrification (rapid EE increase) rather than its quality (lagging grid decarbonization). Furthermore, regarding spatial distribution, CRE exhibits a clear pattern of “high in the north and low in the south”, indicating spatial clustering. This study provides valuable insights for advancing transportation electrification strategies.

交通电气化是实现碳中和目标的关键战略。然而，交通电气化对碳排放（CRE）的贡献取决于电网的脱碳程度。本文采用Kaya恒等、LMDI模型和Moran指数对2004 - 2022年中国7个电网区域30个省份的CRE及其空间聚类特征进行了研究。结果表明，交通电气化率（EE）在早期保持稳定，但在2016年之后逐渐上升，到2022年达到12.35%。交通电气化主要通过电力替代、电力脱碳和能源效率提高三个方面影响碳排放。从2004年到2022年，交通电气化导致了额外的994万吨碳排放，其中电力替代效应是主要因素。大多数省份还没有通过交通电气化实现碳减排。这一结果主要是因为这些省份更加重视交通电气化的数量（快速的EE增长），而不是其质量（滞后的电网脱碳）。在空间分布上，CRE呈现出明显的“北高南低”的格局，具有空间集聚性。本研究为推进交通电气化战略提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Security perceptions in ride-sharing services: Influencing factors and effective solutions 拼车服务中的安全认知：影响因素及有效解决方案

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101689

Marzieh Afsari, Salar Salehi, Lory Michelle Bresciani Miristice, Guido Gentile

Ride-sharing offers flexibility and cost-efficiency, but presents security challenges, especially in developing countries. In Iran, a country with a longstanding tradition of ride-sharing, this study investigates how users perceive security, and which measures they consider effective. We collected survey data from 270 participants and applied factor analysis to identify latent dimensions influencing perceived security, including experiences, social influences, family norm, and religion. These factors and demographics were included in an ordered logit model to assess their impact on perceived security. Results show gender is the strongest predictor, with women reporting lower security than men. However, men also feel insecure, especially at night or outside urban areas. These findings underscore the need to combine gender-neutral and gender-sensitive strategies to ensure fairness while addressing the diverse security needs. Other significant variables include age, past harassment experience, media exposure, and family norms. Those with very low perceived security are less responsive to interventions than those with moderate or higher security. We also evaluated user preferences for a range of proposed measures. Cameras and tracking received strong support, with many expressing a willingness to pay for increased security. Security apps showed promise, but users stressed the need for better privacy, preventive functions, and real-time response.

拼车提供了灵活性和成本效益，但也带来了安全挑战，尤其是在发展中国家。在伊朗这个有着长期共享出行传统的国家，这项研究调查了用户如何看待安全，以及他们认为哪些措施有效。我们收集了270名参与者的调查数据，并运用因子分析找出影响安全感感知的潜在维度，包括经历、社会影响、家庭规范和宗教。这些因素和人口统计数据被包括在一个有序logit模型中，以评估它们对感知安全的影响。结果显示，性别是最有力的预测因素，女性报告的安全感低于男性。然而，男性也会感到不安全，尤其是在晚上或城市以外的地方。这些调查结果强调需要将性别中立和性别敏感战略结合起来，以确保公平，同时满足各种安全需求。其他重要的变量包括年龄、过去的骚扰经历、媒体曝光和家庭规范。安全感非常低的人对干预的反应要低于安全感中等或更高的人。我们还评估了用户对一系列拟议措施的偏好。摄像头和跟踪得到了强烈支持，许多人表示愿意为加强安全付费。安全应用程序显示出了希望，但用户强调需要更好的隐私、预防功能和实时响应。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of intra-regional road networks on small business dynamics in China 区域内道路网络对中国小企业动态的影响

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101729

Lanlan Wang, Jianmei Zhao

This study extends existing literature, which primarily addresses the economic impact of inter-regional transport infrastructure, by examining the role of four types of intra-regional roads on small business formation, closure, and net growth. Using a county-level panel dataset from China spanning 2014 to 2019 and a fixed-effects instrumental variable (FE-IV) approach, we find that tertiary roads, characterized by pedestrian-friendly designs, significantly promote small business registrations and reduce closures, fostering sustained entrepreneurial growth. In contrast, primary, secondary, or branch roads are either associated with fewer new firm establishments, higher business closures, or negative net business growth. Heterogeneity analyses highlight sector-specific and regional variations. By integrating multiple intra-regional road types into a unified empirical framework to analyze their distinct impact on small business dynamics, this study fills critical gaps in the literature and provides actionable insights for policymakers aiming to optimize local infrastructure for small business development.

本研究通过考察四种类型的区域内道路对小企业形成、关闭和净增长的作用，扩展了现有文献，主要探讨了区域间交通基础设施的经济影响。利用2014年至2019年中国县级面板数据集和固定效应工具变量（FE-IV）方法，我们发现以行人友好型设计为特征的三级道路显著促进了小企业注册，减少了关闭，促进了持续的创业增长。相比之下，主要、次要或分支道路要么与较少的新公司建立、较高的企业关闭或负净业务增长有关。异质性分析强调了特定部门和区域的差异。通过将多种区域内道路类型整合到一个统一的实证框架中，分析其对小企业动态的不同影响，本研究填补了文献中的关键空白，并为旨在优化地方基础设施以促进小企业发展的政策制定者提供了可操作的见解。

引用次数: 0

Exploratory analysis of periodic patterns in passenger aircraft orders and their associations with macroeconomic trends 客机订单周期模式的探索性分析及其与宏观经济趋势的关联

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101715

Kazuaki Katagiri , Toshio Takiya

Since the mid-20th century, global demand for air passenger transport has consistently increased, however, passenger aircraft orders have exhibited significant fluctuations. These fluctuations have imposed burdens on manufacturers, leading to instability and inefficiencies across globally integrated supply chains. This study applies Discrete Fourier Analysis and Cross-Correlation Analysis to passenger aircraft order data and global economic growth rates (1960–2020) to explore periodicity and macroeconomic associations. The results reveal a dominant cycle of approximately 8–10 years, consistent across aircraft types, and suggest synchronization with global economic growth patterns. These findings provide insights for long-term strategic planning in the passenger aircraft industries.

自20世纪中叶以来，全球航空客运需求持续增长，但客机订单却出现了较大波动。这些波动给制造商带来了负担，导致全球一体化供应链的不稳定和效率低下。本研究采用离散傅立叶分析和互相关分析方法对客机订单数据和全球经济增长率（1960-2020）进行分析，探讨其周期性和宏观经济关联性。结果显示，飞机类型的主导周期约为8-10年，并与全球经济增长模式同步。这些发现为客机行业的长期战略规划提供了见解。

引用次数: 0

How shared autonomous vehicle services affect commuters’ value of travel time in Shanghai, China 在中国上海，共享自动驾驶汽车服务如何影响通勤者的出行时间价值

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101704

Ke Wang , Jing Zhao , Hongcheng Gan , Zhen Wang , Yutong Li , Xin Ye

Shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs), a combination of shared mobility service and autonomous vehicle technology, are widely regarded as a promising pathway toward more sustainable, efficient, and equitable urban transportation systems. The impact of SAVs on commuters' value of travel time (VOTT) is critical for transportation planning authorities but remains insufficiently understood. Since the high uncertainty in the VOTT often arises from substantial preference heterogeneity across individuals, this paper developed a mixed multinomial Probit model with correlated error terms to analyze the impact of SAV service on commuters’ mode choice and the VOTT in Shanghai, China. The results show that, relative to the VOTT derived from revealed preference data, the VOTT for private cars based on stated preference data after the introduction of SAV services shows a slight increase, while the VOTTs for taxis and public transit remain largely unchanged. The results further indicate a reduction of nearly one-half in the VOTT for SAV relative to private cars. Policy implications are also discussed to promote the development and sustainability of urban mobilities.

共享自动驾驶汽车（sav）是共享出行服务和自动驾驶汽车技术的结合，被广泛认为是实现更可持续、更高效、更公平的城市交通系统的有希望的途径。sav对通勤者出行时间价值（VOTT）的影响对交通规划当局来说至关重要，但目前还没有得到充分的认识。考虑到出行方式的高不确定性往往源于个体之间的偏好异质性，本文建立了一个带有相关误差项的混合多项式Probit模型，分析了上海城市交通服务对通勤者出行方式选择和出行方式的影响。结果表明，相对于基于显性偏好数据得出的VOTT，引入自动驾驶汽车服务后，基于显性偏好数据得出的私家车VOTT略有上升，而出租车和公共交通的VOTT基本保持不变。结果进一步表明，与私家车相比，SAV的VOTT降低了近一半。本文还讨论了促进城市交通发展和可持续性的政策影响。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluating supporting policies for an urban consolidation center considering retailer adoption 考虑零售商采用的城市整合中心的支持政策评估

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101719

Yahui Yao , Rong Zhang , Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu

Urban Consolidation Centers (UCCs) have emerged as a promising solution to urban distribution challenges, but success depends on policy support and stakeholder adoption. To address gaps in current research, this paper assesses the impact of supporting policies and dynamic adoption of UCCs by stakeholders. An agent-based simulation model is developed to replicate retailers' selection of carriers based on generalized logistics costs (GLCs), and carriers' scheduling of truck operations in response to delivery demands. Three policy categories — operational subsidies, traffic regulations, and parking management — are evaluated. With an UCC serving clothing retailers in Shanghai's Wujiaochang CBD as the study case, data from various sources is used to model the agents. Results indicate that standalone UCCs implementation yields limited effectiveness. Operational subsidies exert the most significant impact, whereas traffic and parking policies provide moderate benefits. The optimal policy package includes a substantial, evenly distributed subsidy over the subsidy period, a delayed traffic restriction start time, and a 25 % parking fee discount for UCC trucks. This policy package produces a synergistic effect, significantly reducing vehicle kilometers traveled (by 21.19 %) and implicit logistics costs (by 50.38 %). These insights inform effective policy design and offer a valuable decision-support tool for cities considering UCCs implementations.

城市整合中心（UCCs）已成为应对城市配送挑战的一种有希望的解决方案，但成功与否取决于政策支持和利益相关者的采纳。为了解决当前研究中的空白，本文评估了支持政策和利益相关者动态采用ucc的影响。建立了基于智能体的仿真模型，模拟了零售商基于广义物流成本（GLCs）的运输商选择和运输商响应配送需求的卡车作业调度。对运营补贴、交通规制、停车管理等3个政策类别进行了评价。本文以上海五角场CBD的一家服务服装零售商的UCC为研究案例，利用各种来源的数据对代理商进行建模。结果表明，独立UCCs的实施效果有限。运营补贴的影响最大，而交通和停车政策的影响较小。最优的政策方案包括在补贴期内平均分配大量补贴，延迟交通限制开始时间，以及对UCC卡车25%的停车费折扣。这一政策方案产生了协同效应，显著减少了车辆行驶公里数（21.19%）和隐性物流成本（50.38%）。这些见解为有效的政策设计提供了信息，并为考虑实施UCCs的城市提供了有价值的决策支持工具。

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引用次数: 0

Beyond direct effects: Socioeconomic and accessibility factors as moderators in the relationship between railway inequality dimensions and usage barriers in intercity train services 超越直接影响：社会经济和可达性因素在铁路不平等维度与城际列车服务使用障碍之间的关系中起调节作用

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101733

Natcha Limpasirisuwan , Thanapong Champahom , Rattanaporn Kasemsri , Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao , Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha

This study examines how socioeconomic and accessibility factors moderate the relationship between multidimensional railway inequality and usage barriers in developing country contexts. While extensive research has documented direct relationships between railway infrastructure development and accessibility outcomes, limited attention has been given to understanding how these relationships vary across different population segments and accessibility conditions. Using structural equation modeling and multi-group analysis of data from 1677 intercity railway users across Thailand's seven regions, this research investigates the moderating roles of transport modes, station location, age, gender, and income level in shaping how railway inequality dimensions influence accessibility barriers, safety concerns, and affordability challenges. The findings confirm that railway inequality significantly affects usage barriers through seven interconnected dimensions, with economic inequality emerging as the dominant factor. These findings challenge traditional approaches to transport equity that emphasize demographic targeting, instead advocating for universal improvements in multimodal transport integration and first-and-last-mile connectivity. The research provides critical insights for policymakers in developing countries, suggesting that investments in comprehensive feeder transport systems and age-sensitive accessibility programs may more effectively reduce railway inequality than conventional income-based subsidies or gender-specific interventions alone.

本研究考察了社会经济和可达性因素如何调节发展中国家多维铁路不平等与使用障碍之间的关系。虽然广泛的研究已经记录了铁路基础设施发展与可达性结果之间的直接关系，但对了解这些关系在不同人口群体和可达性条件下的差异的关注有限。本研究利用结构方程模型和对泰国七个地区1677名城际铁路用户数据的多组分析，探讨了交通方式、车站位置、年龄、性别和收入水平对铁路不平等维度如何影响可达性障碍、安全问题和负担能力挑战的调节作用。研究结果证实，铁路不平等通过七个相互关联的维度显著影响使用障碍，其中经济不平等成为主导因素。这些发现挑战了传统的交通公平方法，这些方法强调人口目标，而不是倡导普遍改善多式联运一体化和第一英里和最后一英里的连通性。该研究为发展中国家的政策制定者提供了重要见解，表明与传统的基于收入的补贴或仅针对性别的干预措施相比，投资于综合支线运输系统和对年龄敏感的无障碍项目可能更有效地减少铁路不平等。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of top managers with diverse backgrounds on the operational efficiency of Chinese state-owned toll road companies 不同背景高层管理人员对中国国有收费公路公司运营效率的影响

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101731

Yanling Li , Yingjie Zheng , Sheng Cao , Yijin Song , Ruoyang Du

This study investigates whether and how top managers with diverse backgrounds influence the operational efficiency of Chinese state-owned toll road companies (CSTRCs). Using panel data from CSTRCs between 2011 and 2021, we examine the impact of top managers' diverse background characteristics on operational efficiency, and focus on the moderating role of external supervisory environments. The results indicate that top managers with diverse backgrounds significantly improve operational efficiency, particularly for companies in western China. Further mechanism analysis reveals that local government supervision strengthens the positive effect, and that this moderating role is further enhanced when public supervision is present. Our findings offer new insights into the endogenous drivers of operational efficiency and provide practical implications for promoting efficiency improvements in state-owned companies.

本研究探讨不同背景的高层管理人员是否以及如何影响中国国有收费公路公司的运营效率。本文利用2011 - 2021年CSTRCs的面板数据，研究了高管不同背景特征对运营效率的影响，并重点研究了外部监管环境的调节作用。结果表明，具有不同背景的高管显著提高了运营效率，尤其是在中国西部的公司。进一步的机制分析表明，地方政府监督强化了积极作用，在公众监督存在的情况下，这种调节作用进一步增强。我们的研究结果为国有企业经营效率的内生驱动提供了新的见解，并为促进国有企业效率的提高提供了现实意义。

引用次数: 0

Towards a revitalization of passenger rail services in South African cities: Lessons from international institutional reforms 振兴南非城市客运铁路服务：来自国际机构改革的经验教训

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101692

Roger Behrens , Pieter Onderwater , Kavita Shah

For over a century passenger rail services in South Africa have been provided by one or other form of national public monopoly. Over the past decade these services have been in steep decline, effectively collapsing when COVID-19 lockdown regulations were imposed. Current policy attention is focussed on reviving operations and installing an institutional structure capable of providing ‘safe, reliable, effective, efficient and fully integrated’ rail transport. Key to this is a commitment to devolve functions to capable lower spheres of government. The aim of this paper is to explore lessons from international experiences in institutional reforms centred around devolution. To qualify for inclusion, cases needed to have experienced a deliberate policy action to devolve passenger rail functions from a national to a lower sphere of government. A literature search revealed 11 such cases. Case reviews focussed on: the circumstances of the devolution; any associated vertical separation and privatisation; impacts; and any subsequent policy reversals. Key lessons included: devolved operations should be accompanied by financial resourcing; vertical separation requires independent institutions capable of adjudicating competing interests; private sector participation in operations is less risky than private infrastructure ownership; and the devolution of both train and bus services can enhance modal integration.

一个多世纪以来，南非的客运铁路服务一直由一种或另一种形式的国家公共垄断提供。在过去十年中，这些服务急剧下降，在实施COVID-19封锁规定时实际上已经崩溃。目前的政策重点是恢复运营和建立一个能够提供“安全、可靠、有效、高效和完全一体化”铁路运输的体制结构。这方面的关键是承诺将职能下放给有能力的较低政府部门。本文旨在探讨以权力下放为中心的机构改革的国际经验教训。为了符合纳入的条件，案例需要经过深思熟虑的政策行动，将客运铁路职能从国家政府下放到较低的政府领域。文献检索显示了11个这样的案例。案例审查侧重于：权力下放的情况；任何相关的纵向分离和私有化；影响;以及随后的政策逆转。主要经验包括：下放的业务应同时提供财政资源；纵向分离要求有能力裁决相互竞争的利益的独立机构；私营部门参与运营的风险低于私人拥有基础设施的风险；火车和公共汽车服务的下放可以增强模式一体化。

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引用次数: 0

The unintended consequences of monitoring technologies: Evidence from the Electronic Logging Device mandate 监控技术的意外后果：来自电子记录设备命令的证据

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101714

Dario Salcedo , Wesley Zebrowski , Shellye Suttles

The electronic logging device (ELD) final rule was passed in 2015 and implemented in phases over the course of four years. The mandate required that most commercial motor vehicles be fitted with an ELD by December 2019. The primary purpose of the transportation safety policy is to better enforce existing hours-of-service (HOS) regulations. HOS rules seek to limit the amount of driving time commercial drivers are on the road each day to avoid fatigued driving that may cause accidents and fatalities. Prior to the ELD mandate, commercial long-haul drivers cited that they regularly violated daily and weekly HOS rules when paper driving logs could be easily manipulated.

Using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) on traffic fatalities, we run two sets of difference-in-differences analyses exploiting the introduction of the ELD mandate: one predicting the change in fatal truck accidents as well as fatalities and injuries in these accidents and one showing the possible aggressive driving mechanisms (e.g., speeding, drunk driving) behind the main effects. Our first model finds that the ELD mandate led to an increase in fatal truck accidents by 8 %, an increase in truck fatalities by 11 %, and an increase in the number of surviving passengers with severe injuries experienced by 17 %. Our second model finds that fatal crashes with aggressive driving behaviors by truck drivers increased by 12 % in the post period, supporting the first model's results. Additionally, and as placebo exercises, we find no change in the average fatality and injury rates once we modify the timing of the policy (post-ELD period to the years before the phased-in compliance of 2017), the presence of outliers or the composition of the treated group.

电子测井设备（ELD）最终规则于2015年通过，并在四年的时间里分阶段实施。该指令要求大多数商用机动车辆在2019年12月之前安装ELD。制定交通安全政策的主要目的，是更好地执行现行的服务时间规例。居屋计划规则旨在限制商业司机每天上路的驾驶时间，以避免驾驶疲劳造成意外和死亡。在实施ELD之前，商业长途司机表示，他们经常违反每日和每周的居屋规定，因为纸质驾驶日志很容易被操纵。使用来自交通死亡人数死亡分析报告系统（FARS）的数据，我们利用ELD任务的引入进行了两组差异分析：一组预测致命卡车事故以及这些事故中的死亡和伤害的变化，另一组显示主要影响背后可能的侵略性驾驶机制（例如超速、酒后驾驶）。我们的第一个模型发现，ELD命令导致致命的卡车事故增加了8%，卡车死亡人数增加了11%，严重受伤的幸存乘客人数增加了17%。我们的第二个模型发现，卡车司机的攻击性驾驶行为导致的致命车祸在之后的一段时间里增加了12%，这与第一个模型的结果相吻合。此外，作为安慰剂练习，我们发现，一旦我们修改政策的时间（eld后至2017年分阶段合规之前的年份）、异常值的存在或治疗组的组成，平均死亡率和受伤率没有变化。

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引用次数: 0