Research in Transportation Economics最新文献

How shared autonomous vehicle services affect commuters’ value of travel time in Shanghai, China 在中国上海，共享自动驾驶汽车服务如何影响通勤者的出行时间价值

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101704

Ke Wang , Jing Zhao , Hongcheng Gan , Zhen Wang , Yutong Li , Xin Ye

Shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs), a combination of shared mobility service and autonomous vehicle technology, are widely regarded as a promising pathway toward more sustainable, efficient, and equitable urban transportation systems. The impact of SAVs on commuters' value of travel time (VOTT) is critical for transportation planning authorities but remains insufficiently understood. Since the high uncertainty in the VOTT often arises from substantial preference heterogeneity across individuals, this paper developed a mixed multinomial Probit model with correlated error terms to analyze the impact of SAV service on commuters’ mode choice and the VOTT in Shanghai, China. The results show that, relative to the VOTT derived from revealed preference data, the VOTT for private cars based on stated preference data after the introduction of SAV services shows a slight increase, while the VOTTs for taxis and public transit remain largely unchanged. The results further indicate a reduction of nearly one-half in the VOTT for SAV relative to private cars. Policy implications are also discussed to promote the development and sustainability of urban mobilities.

共享自动驾驶汽车（sav）是共享出行服务和自动驾驶汽车技术的结合，被广泛认为是实现更可持续、更高效、更公平的城市交通系统的有希望的途径。sav对通勤者出行时间价值（VOTT）的影响对交通规划当局来说至关重要，但目前还没有得到充分的认识。考虑到出行方式的高不确定性往往源于个体之间的偏好异质性，本文建立了一个带有相关误差项的混合多项式Probit模型，分析了上海城市交通服务对通勤者出行方式选择和出行方式的影响。结果表明，相对于基于显性偏好数据得出的VOTT，引入自动驾驶汽车服务后，基于显性偏好数据得出的私家车VOTT略有上升，而出租车和公共交通的VOTT基本保持不变。结果进一步表明，与私家车相比，SAV的VOTT降低了近一半。本文还讨论了促进城市交通发展和可持续性的政策影响。

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引用次数: 0

Implementing residential parking policy: “It is like foisting a new religion upon them” 实施住宅停车政策：“这就像把一种新的宗教强加给他们”

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101703

Göran Smith , Anne Yu Faxér

The availability and price of residential parking are key determinants of car ownership and use. Residential parking reform can therefore significantly affect how people travel and thus contribute to sustainability transitions in urban mobility. Residential parking reforms have, however, proven difficult to implement. To address this problem, this paper analyzes the institutional conditions that influence residential parking policy formation and implementation. It does so through an exploratory case study of an ongoing, city-wide reform in Sweden. The analysis, which builds on interviews, observations, workshops, and a questionnaire, identifies multiple conditions at the inter-organizational, organizational, and intra-organizational levels that the people involved perceive as influencing the policy process. In terms of academic contributions, the findings deepen understanding of the challenges associated with implementing residential parking policies and show that regime lock-in within land-use planning, housing, and mobility can be a greater impediment to residential parking reform than resident opposition in the early phases of the policy process. The paper provides three recommendations for public officials overseeing residential parking reform: framing their task as organizational change and drawing inspiration from related frameworks; building legitimacy through incremental implementation; and monitoring and reporting reform-related outcomes through a public health benefits lens.

住宅停车场的可用性和价格是汽车拥有和使用的关键决定因素。因此，住宅停车改革可以显著影响人们的出行方式，从而促进城市交通的可持续性转型。然而，住宅停车改革已被证明难以实施。为了解决这一问题，本文分析了影响住宅停车政策形成和实施的制度条件。它通过对瑞典正在进行的全市改革的探索性案例研究来做到这一点。该分析建立在访谈、观察、研讨会和问卷调查的基础上，确定了组织间、组织和组织内各级的多种情况，相关人员认为这些情况会影响政策过程。就学术贡献而言，研究结果加深了对实施住宅停车政策相关挑战的理解，并表明在政策制定的早期阶段，土地使用规划、住房和流动性中的制度锁定可能比居民反对更大地阻碍住宅停车改革。本文为监督住宅停车改革的政府官员提供了三点建议：将他们的任务定义为组织变革，并从相关框架中汲取灵感；通过逐步实施建立合法性；并从公共卫生利益的角度监测和报告与改革有关的成果。

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引用次数: 0

Who benefits from autonomous vehicles? Distributional and general-equilibrium effects in a monocentric city with heterogeneous households and tax interactions 谁会从自动驾驶汽车中受益？异质性家庭与税收相互作用的单中心城市分配与一般均衡效应

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101702

Diego Candia

I study the welfare and distributional effects of autonomous vehicles (AVs) using a monocentric city model with heterogeneous households and endogenous labor supply. The formulation captures the fact that AVs allow performing activities while commuting. Numerical results show that AVs increase aggregate welfare, but low-skilled households can experience losses if they are initially located further from the CBD and only high-skilled households can afford an AV. This is due to high-skilled households moving to the periphery, causing an increase in housing prices for the low-skilled, among others general-equilibrium effects. Using the revenues from a distance-based road pricing to finance a labor tax cut for the low-skilled results in gains for both skill types, but reaches only 15% of the welfare increase obtained from using the revenues to finance a general labor tax cut. This latter recycling scheme almost doubles the welfare gains from the introduction of AVs, but amplifies its uneven effects.

本文采用具有异质性家庭和内生劳动力供给的单中心城市模型研究自动驾驶汽车的福利和分配效应。这个公式抓住了这样一个事实，即自动驾驶汽车允许在通勤时进行活动。数值结果表明，自动驾驶汽车增加了总福利，但如果低技能家庭最初位于远离CBD的地方，只有高技能家庭才能负担得起自动驾驶汽车，那么他们可能会遭受损失。这是由于高技能家庭向外围转移，导致低技能家庭的房价上涨，以及其他一般均衡效应。使用基于距离的道路收费的收入来资助低技能工人的劳动税减免，这两种技能类型都有收益，但只达到了使用收入来资助一般劳动税减免所获得的福利增加的15%。后一种回收方案几乎使引入自动驾驶汽车带来的福利收益翻了一番，但却放大了其不平衡效应。

引用次数: 0

Task-level causal effects of maintenance staffing shortages on aircraft-on-ground (AOG) and reliability 维修人员短缺对飞机在地（AOG）和可靠性的任务级因果影响

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101701

Arthur C. Dela Peña, Meredith I. Rutao

Staffing shortages in aircraft maintenance are a critical driver of operational cost and reliability, yet most studies focus on aggregated effects, obscuring task-level dynamics. This study provides quasi-experimental evidence linking staffing intensity (SI) and skill mix (SM) to aircraft-on-ground (AOG) exposure, deferrals, and repair reliability in a multi-base Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) setting. Using 24–36 months of operational data across five stations, we apply a staggered difference-in-differences event-study design, Cox proportional hazards modeling, and mediation analysis to estimate direct and indirect effects of staffing fluctuations. Shortage episodes are identified using station-specific SI thresholds, with outcomes measured in AOG minutes, deferrals per 100 departures, and time-to-closure. Results show shortages increase AOG exposure by 0.10 per 1000 flight hours and deferrals by 0.07 per 100 departures. Higher SI accelerates closure (Hazard Ratio HR ≈ 1.11) and reduces repeat-defect risk (OR 0.88–0.91), with two-thirds of the effect mediated through variance in turnaround time (TAT) and deferral reduction. Effects are concentrated at night, during rainfall, at smaller bases, and in Air Transport Association (ATA) 21/24 systems. Policy simulations show skill-mix upgrades yield the lowest cost per AOG-minute avoided, offering actionable strategies for risk-based staffing and predictive rostering.

飞机维修人员短缺是运营成本和可靠性的关键驱动因素，但大多数研究都集中在总体效应上，模糊了任务级动态。本研究提供了准实验证据，将人员配备强度（SI）和技能组合（SM）与多基地维护、维修和大修（MRO）设置中的飞机在地（AOG）暴露、延误和维修可靠性联系起来。利用5个站点24-36个月的运营数据，我们采用交错差中差事件研究设计、Cox比例风险建模和中介分析来估计人员波动的直接和间接影响。使用车站特定的SI阈值来确定短缺事件，其结果以AOG分钟、每100次发车延误时间和关闭时间来衡量。结果显示，航班短缺每1000个飞行小时增加0.1个AOG暴露，每100次起飞增加0.07个延误。较高的SI加速闭合（风险比HR≈1.11）并降低重复缺陷风险（OR 0.88-0.91），其中三分之二的效果是通过周转时间（TAT）和延迟减少的差异介导的。影响集中在夜间、降雨期间、较小的基地和航空运输协会（ATA） 21/24系统。政策模拟显示，技能组合升级可避免的每aog分钟成本最低，为基于风险的人员配置和预测调度提供了可操作的策略。

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引用次数: 0

Did transportation electrification help to reduce transportation sector CO2 emissions? A study considering the dynamic electricity carbon emission factor 交通电气化是否有助于减少交通部门的二氧化碳排放？考虑动态电力碳排放因子的研究

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101698

Guiwen Liu, Jia Wang, Pengpeng Xu, Rundong Chen, Haona Yao

Transportation electrification is a key strategy for achieving carbon neutrality goals. However, the contributions of transportation electrification to carbon emissions (CRE) depend on the degree of power grid decarbonization. This study employed the Kaya Identity, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model, and Moran's Index to examine CRE and its spatial clustering characteristics across China's seven power grid regions from 2004 to 2022, covering 30 provinces. Results indicated that the transportation electrification rate (EE) remained stable in the early years but increased gradually after 2016, reaching 12.35 % by 2022. Transportation electrification primarily impacts carbon emissions through three aspects: electricity substitution, electricity decarbonization, and energy efficiency improvement. Transportation electrification resulted in an additional 9.94 Mt of carbon emissions from 2004 to 2022, with the electricity substitution effect being the primary contributing factor. Most provinces have not achieved carbon reductions through transportation electrification. This outcome is mainly because these provinces have placed greater emphasis on the quantity of transportation electrification (rapid EE increase) rather than its quality (lagging grid decarbonization). Furthermore, regarding spatial distribution, CRE exhibits a clear pattern of “high in the north and low in the south”, indicating spatial clustering. This study provides valuable insights for advancing transportation electrification strategies.

交通电气化是实现碳中和目标的关键战略。然而，交通电气化对碳排放（CRE）的贡献取决于电网的脱碳程度。本文采用Kaya恒等、LMDI模型和Moran指数对2004 - 2022年中国7个电网区域30个省份的CRE及其空间聚类特征进行了研究。结果表明，交通电气化率（EE）在早期保持稳定，但在2016年之后逐渐上升，到2022年达到12.35%。交通电气化主要通过电力替代、电力脱碳和能源效率提高三个方面影响碳排放。从2004年到2022年，交通电气化导致了额外的994万吨碳排放，其中电力替代效应是主要因素。大多数省份还没有通过交通电气化实现碳减排。这一结果主要是因为这些省份更加重视交通电气化的数量（快速的EE增长），而不是其质量（滞后的电网脱碳）。在空间分布上，CRE呈现出明显的“北高南低”的格局，具有空间集聚性。本研究为推进交通电气化战略提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Airline schedule padding as a competitive strategy 航空公司的时刻表填充作为一种竞争策略

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101700

Jules O. Yimga , Huubinh B. Le

This paper examines schedule padding as a strategic response to competitors' scheduling behavior in the U.S. domestic airline market. Using quarterly panel data at the airline–airport-pair level for 2023 and instrumental-variable estimation, we find strong evidence of strategic complementarity: 1-min increase in competitors’ padding induces nearly a 1-min increase by the focal carrier. This imitation persists across multiple benchmark definitions and market hauls, though the intensity is slightly weaker in highly competitive markets. The results suggest that the U.S. Department of Transportation on-time performance metrics may unintentionally promote a padding “arms race,” lengthening schedules, with implications for competition policy, scheduling efficiency, and consumer welfare.

本文考察了美国国内航空市场中，作为应对竞争对手调度行为的一种策略。利用2023年航空公司-机场对水平的季度面板数据和工具变量估计，我们发现了战略互补性的有力证据：竞争对手的填充增加1分钟，导致焦点承运人增加近1分钟。这种模仿在多个基准定义和市场中持续存在，尽管在高度竞争的市场中这种模仿的强度略弱一些。结果表明，美国交通部的准点率指标可能无意中促进了一场“军备竞赛”，延长了时间表，对竞争政策、调度效率和消费者福利都有影响。

引用次数: 0

Stated car choices in Norway and Italy: a comparison based on the integrated choice and latent variable model 挪威和意大利的公共汽车选择：基于综合选择和潜在变量模型的比较

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101695

Mariangela Scorrano , Terje Andreas Mathisen , Romeo Danielis , Ozlem Simsekoglu , Giuseppe Marinelli

The study investigates whether the large difference in battery electric vehicle (BEV) uptake between Norway and Italy could be explained by differences in car buyers' preference structures, either in terms of their evaluation of the vehicles' characteristics or in terms of their perceptionsattitudes towards BEVs. Based on stated preference data collected in the two countries, we find that car drivers evaluate vehicle attributes very similarly. Norwegians value BEV driving range slightly more and are more sensitive to fuelelectricity costs. Ceteris paribus, Italian respondents, in contrast to Norwegian ones, still prefer petrol cars to BEVs. The results of the integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) model indicate that respondents’ perceptionsattitudes influence car choice in both countries. In Norway, BEVs are preferred by those who view them as economically, environmentally, technically, and morally superior. In Italy, the evidence is similar but for the environmental aspects, which are not decisive for BEV choice. Such perceptionsattitudes are correlated with age, sex, and BEV density.

该研究调查了挪威和意大利在纯电动汽车（BEV）使用率上的巨大差异是否可以用购车者的偏好结构差异来解释，无论是在他们对车辆特性的评估方面，还是在他们对纯电动汽车的看法和态度方面。根据在两国收集的陈述偏好数据，我们发现汽车驾驶员对车辆属性的评价非常相似。挪威人更看重纯电动汽车的续驶里程，对燃料和电力成本更为敏感。在其他条件相同的情况下，与挪威人相比，意大利受访者仍然更喜欢汽油车而不是纯电动汽车。综合选择和潜在变量（ICLV）模型的结果表明，受访者的看法和态度影响了两国的汽车选择。在挪威，那些认为纯电动汽车在经济上、环境上、技术上和道德上都更优越的人更喜欢它们。在意大利，证据是类似的，但在环境方面，这不是BEV选择的决定性因素。这种看法和态度与年龄、性别和纯电动汽车密度有关。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding the dynamics of vessel pricing and investor behavior in dry bulk shipping 了解干散货航运中船舶定价和投资者行为的动态

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101699

Michael Tsatsaronis , Hercules Haralambides , Theodore Syriopoulos , Eftymios Roumpis

Ships are heavily traded assets and their prices fluctuate wildly in paralell with the underlying freight rates. This confronts investors with sizable market risks but also, for some, with attractive profit opportunities from sale and purchase (S&P) transactions. The paper explores the complex pricing dynamics in dry bulk shipping. We employ modern machine learning techniques, such as k-means clustering, to explore a range of investment behaviors, with the hope of offering investors, asset players and new investor archetypes novel insights on vessel pricing and investment decisions. Through cluster analysis, we classify investors in the S&P market, unveiling investor profiles and behaviours. Chinese shipping investors, for instance, focus on achieving vertical and horizontal integration within the global supply chains, whereas, Greek shipowners are reputed for investing in ship acquisitions even amid economic downturns, demonstrating an agile and adaptive business strategy (McKinsey & Company, 2024). Our results carry potent implications regarding tailored market strategies, risk management, policy formulation, market transparency, investor education, and technology adoption.

船舶是交易量很大的资产，其价格与基础运费同步大幅波动。这让投资者面临相当大的市场风险，但对一些人来说，出售和购买（标普）交易也有诱人的盈利机会。本文探讨了干散货航运的复杂定价动态。我们采用k-means聚类等现代机器学习技术来探索一系列投资行为，希望为投资者、资产参与者和新投资者原型提供有关船舶定价和投资决策的新见解。通过聚类分析，我们对标普市场的投资者进行了分类，揭示了投资者的特征和行为。例如，中国航运投资者专注于在全球供应链中实现纵向和横向整合，而希腊船东即使在经济低迷时期也以投资船舶收购而闻名，展示了灵活和适应性的商业战略（麦肯锡公司，2024）。我们的研究结果对量身定制的市场策略、风险管理、政策制定、市场透明度、投资者教育和技术采用具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Productivity-based assessment of Indian metro systems: A two-stage total factor productivity approach 基于生产率的印度地铁系统评估：两阶段全要素生产率方法

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101697

Gopal R. Patil, Vinayak Gaur

This study evaluates the productivity of nine metro systems in India that commenced operations before 2019, utilising a two-stage Total Factor Productivity (TFP) framework. The benchmarking framework integrates data from the metro's annual reports for the fiscal years 2015–2016 to 2022–2023. In the first stage, Gross Variable Input Productivity (GVIP) is computed using a multilateral index number method. The inputs are labour and soft input costs, and the outputs are passenger kilometres and other revenue. Based on GVIP, the Hyderabad Metro consistently ranks the most productive, securing the top position in four out of five years. Productivity is influenced by external factors such as network size, gross domestic product (GDP), and socioeconomic conditions; therefore, we computed Net Variable Input Productivity (NVIP) using regression analysis to retrieve the residual. The regression results indicate that track length and GDP have a significant impact on metro productivity. According to NVIP, there were some changes in the position of other metros, but Hyderabad Metro retained its top spot. Sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of the benchmarking framework. The study's policy recommendations emphasise the importance of expanding network capacity, enhancing multimodal integration, and increasing non-fare revenue streams.

本研究利用两阶段全要素生产率（TFP）框架，评估了2019年之前开始运营的印度9个地铁系统的生产率。基准框架整合了2015-2016财年至2022-2023财年地铁年度报告的数据。在第一阶段，使用多边指数法计算总可变投入生产率（GVIP）。投入是劳动力和软投入成本，产出是乘客公里数和其他收入。根据GVIP，海得拉巴地铁一直是生产力最高的，在五年中有四年稳居榜首。生产率受网络规模、国内生产总值（GDP）和社会经济条件等外部因素的影响；因此，我们使用回归分析计算净可变投入生产率（NVIP）来检索残差。回归结果表明，轨道长度和GDP对地铁生产率有显著影响。根据NVIP的数据，其他地铁的排名也有所变化，但海得拉巴地铁保持了第一的位置。敏感性分析证实了基准框架的鲁棒性。该研究的政策建议强调了扩大网络容量、加强多模式整合和增加非票价收入流的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Bi-objective set covering location model for two-tier shopping centers based on two-level consumer demand 基于两层消费者需求的双层购物中心双目标集覆盖选址模型

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101696

Fei Wang, Jianyu Chen, Houlong Zhang, Ke Wang

The strategic location of shopping centers is crucial to the economic interests of commercial investors and significantly influences urban residents' welfare and the spatial configuration of urban commercial systems. This study applies an optimization model to the shopping center location problem by constructing a bi-objective set-covering location model for two-tier shopping centers based on two -level consumer demand. The model simultaneously considers the interests of both investors and consumers, aiming to trade-off facility construction costs and consumer travel costs with limited capacity constraints. To efficiently solve the problem, an improved NSGA-II algorithm incorporating a chromosome-archiving mechanism is proposed, and its performance is validated against a reference frontier generated by the

ε

-constraint method. Empirical analysis based on Xi'an's metro network (163 stations) demonstrates the cost ratio parameter (

α

) and service radius ratio parameter (

γ

) exhibit high sensitivity, whereas the capacity ratio parameter (

β

) has a relatively minor effect on the optimization outcomes.

购物中心的战略区位关系到商业投资者的经济利益，对城市居民的福利和城市商业系统的空间配置具有重要影响。本文将优化模型应用于购物中心选址问题，构建了基于两层消费者需求的双层购物中心双目标集覆盖选址模型。该模型同时考虑投资者和消费者的利益，旨在在有限容量约束下权衡设施建设成本和消费者出行成本。为了有效地解决这一问题，提出了一种引入染色体存档机制的改进NSGA-II算法，并通过ε-约束法生成的参考边界对其性能进行了验证。基于西安地铁网络（163个站点）的实证分析表明，成本比参数（α）和服务半径比参数（γ）对优化结果具有较高的敏感性，而容量比参数（β）对优化结果的影响较小。

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引用次数: 0