Research in Transportation Economics最新文献

The impact of environmental regulation and logistics industry agglomeration on road green logistics efficiency: Evidence from China 环境规制和物流业集聚对道路绿色物流效率的影响：来自中国的证据

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101718

Hua Yao , Haijun Mao , Shunfeng Zhang , Zhiyuan Wang , Dongfang Wang , Lei Yang

Decoupling road logistics from road freight activity is essential for controlling CO₂ emissions, and environmental regulation (ER) can serve as a key mechanism to achieve this goal. At the same time, logistics industry agglomeration (LIA), when reasonably managed, can enhance logistics efficiency. However, tensions arise because the rapid expansion of the logistics sector exerts substantial environmental pressure, even though the development of green logistics may partially offset its carbon impacts. Against this backdrop, this study investigates the interrelated effects of ER, LIA, and road green logistics efficiency (RGLE) in order to improve the operational sustainability of road logistics systems. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning 2008–2023, we explore the effect of ER on RGLE and examine how this relationship varies with the inclusion of LIA using moderating and threshold effect models. Empirical results show that RGLE initially declines before increasing, with significant spatial variability. Interestingly, econometric findings indicate that ER does not directly improve RGLE but effectively enhances it through its interaction with LIA. Furthermore, the impact of ER on RGLE exhibits a “U-shaped” relationship under different LIA values. Consequently, this study concludes with recommendations to improve RGLE through optimizing LIA, and strengthening regional linkage.

将公路物流与公路货运活动脱钩对于控制二氧化碳排放至关重要，环境监管（ER）可以作为实现这一目标的关键机制。同时，物流业集聚如果管理合理，可以提高物流效率。然而，尽管绿色物流的发展可能会部分抵消其碳影响，但由于物流业的快速扩张带来了巨大的环境压力，因此出现了紧张局势。在此背景下，本研究探讨了ER、LIA和道路绿色物流效率（RGLE）的相互影响，以提高道路物流系统的运行可持续性。利用2008-2023年中国30个省份的面板数据，我们探讨了ER对RGLE的影响，并使用调节效应和阈值效应模型研究了这种关系如何随着LIA的加入而变化。实证结果表明，RGLE先下降后上升，具有显著的空间变异性。有趣的是，计量经济学研究结果表明，ER并没有直接改善RGLE，而是通过与LIA的相互作用有效地提高了RGLE。此外，在不同LIA值下，ER对RGLE的影响呈“u”型关系。因此，本研究提出了通过优化LIA和加强区域联系来提高RGLE的建议。

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引用次数: 0

Quantile effect of accessibility on house prices and rents: A comparative study from Fuzhou, China 可达性对房价和租金的分位数效应——来自福州的比较研究

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101721

Shixiong Jiang , Canhuang Cai , Hongjian Zhao , Wenyi Zhang , Kai Yuan

Quantifying the benefits of accessibility on property prices is important for supporting infrastructure planning and guiding land use development. However, disparities between its effects on house prices and rents remain largely underexplored, which is essential to investigate the similarities and differences between owners and renters in residential location choices. This study is conducted in Fuzhou, China, with the open data, such as house listing information from Lianjia.com, and points of interest from Amap. This study adopts a supply-side perspective to investigate how sellers and landlords capitalize property characteristics into list prices and rents. Econometric analyses, including spatial lag, spatial error, and quantile spatial regression models, revealed consistent variable influences on both house prices and rents—positively for number of bedrooms and negatively for property age and distance to the central business district. However, distinctions arose for variables like south-facing orientation. Notably, homeowners prioritized neighborhood facilities over proximity. Two-stage quantile spatial regression can estimate varying, heterogeneous relationships across the entire conditional distribution, which confirmed that the preferences are different for submarkets. For example, owners of high-priced houses are more influenced by life and education factors, while those of low-priced ones prioritize work and transport. These insights inform governmental housing market regulation and investment strategies.

量化可达性对房价的影响，对于支持基础设施规划和指导土地利用发展非常重要。然而，它对房价和租金的影响之间的差异在很大程度上仍未得到充分研究，这对于调查房主和租房者在居住地点选择方面的异同至关重要。本研究以中国福州市为研究对象，使用开放数据，如链家网的房源信息和高德地图的兴趣点。本研究采用供给侧视角，探讨卖主与房东如何将物业特征转化为标价与租金。包括空间滞后、空间误差和分位数空间回归模型在内的计量经济学分析显示，房价和租金的变量影响是一致的——卧室数量对房价和租金有积极影响，而房产年龄和距离中央商务区的距离对房价和租金有消极影响。然而，像朝南朝向这样的变量产生了差异。值得注意的是，房主优先考虑的是社区设施，而不是邻近性。两阶段分位数空间回归可以估计整个条件分布中变化的异质关系，这证实了子市场的偏好是不同的。例如，高房价的房主更多地受到生活和教育因素的影响，而低房价的房主则优先考虑工作和交通因素。这些见解为政府的住房市场监管和投资策略提供了信息。

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引用次数: 0

Ride-hailing demand elasticities and value of travel time savings: An empirical analysis with massive data including sociodemographic characteristics 网约车需求弹性与出行时间节约价值：基于社会人口特征等海量数据的实证分析

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101717

Felipe González , Louis de Grange , Raúl Pezoa , Rodrigo Troncoso

Understanding how users respond to ride-hailing prices and travel time is essential for designing effective and equitable transport policies. However, most existing evidence comes from high-income countries and stated-preference data, with limited attention to user heterogeneity and spatial contexts. This study contributes to filling this gap by estimating price elasticities and value of travel time savings (VOTTS) for ride-hailing trips in Greater Santiago, Chile, using aggregated data from over three million revealed-preference trip records provided by Uber, organized by origin-destination zone pairs. We estimate log-linear demand models that incorporate detailed sociodemographic and spatial indicators to capture variation across urban and rural zones, times of day, and user characteristics. Results show that price elasticities are higher in absolute terms in rural areas and during off-peak periods, while VOTTS is greater in urban zones and at peak hours. Additionally, ride-hailing demand increases in areas with Metro access and higher immigrant populations, but decreases in zones with higher poverty levels and larger elderly populations. These findings provide valuable insights for tailoring pricing, subsidies, and infrastructure investments to local needs and for enhancing the integration between ride-hailing and public transport in diverse urban settings.

了解用户对网约车价格和出行时间的反应，对于设计有效、公平的交通政策至关重要。然而，大多数现有证据来自高收入国家和声明偏好数据，对用户异质性和空间背景的关注有限。本研究利用优步提供的300多万次显示偏好旅行记录的汇总数据，按出发地-目的地区域对组织，通过估算智利大圣地亚哥地区网约车旅行的价格弹性和旅行时间节省价值（VOTTS），有助于填补这一空白。我们估计了包含详细的社会人口和空间指标的对数线性需求模型，以捕捉城乡地区、一天中的时间和用户特征之间的变化。结果表明，农村地区和非高峰时段的绝对价格弹性更高，而城市地区和高峰时段的VOTTS更大。此外，在有地铁通道和移民人口较多的地区，网约车需求会增加，但在贫困程度较高和老年人口较多的地区，网约车需求会减少。这些发现为根据当地需求定制定价、补贴和基础设施投资，以及在不同城市环境中加强网约车与公共交通的整合提供了宝贵的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Exploratory analysis of periodic patterns in passenger aircraft orders and their associations with macroeconomic trends 客机订单周期模式的探索性分析及其与宏观经济趋势的关联

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101715

Kazuaki Katagiri , Toshio Takiya

Since the mid-20th century, global demand for air passenger transport has consistently increased, however, passenger aircraft orders have exhibited significant fluctuations. These fluctuations have imposed burdens on manufacturers, leading to instability and inefficiencies across globally integrated supply chains. This study applies Discrete Fourier Analysis and Cross-Correlation Analysis to passenger aircraft order data and global economic growth rates (1960–2020) to explore periodicity and macroeconomic associations. The results reveal a dominant cycle of approximately 8–10 years, consistent across aircraft types, and suggest synchronization with global economic growth patterns. These findings provide insights for long-term strategic planning in the passenger aircraft industries.

自20世纪中叶以来，全球航空客运需求持续增长，但客机订单却出现了较大波动。这些波动给制造商带来了负担，导致全球一体化供应链的不稳定和效率低下。本研究采用离散傅立叶分析和互相关分析方法对客机订单数据和全球经济增长率（1960-2020）进行分析，探讨其周期性和宏观经济关联性。结果显示，飞机类型的主导周期约为8-10年，并与全球经济增长模式同步。这些发现为客机行业的长期战略规划提供了见解。

引用次数: 0

A projection-based regret theory method for evaluating service quality of public transportation systems under interval type-2 fuzzy environment during COVID-19 pandemic 基于投影后悔理论的区间2型模糊环境下公共交通系统服务质量评价方法

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101716

Naijie Chai , Ziyu Chen , Wenliang Zhou

Public transportation plays a vital role in urban mobility, particularly in large and densely populated cities. As a result, evaluating service quality of public transportation systems has become a strategic decision-making concern for both private and public sections. In particular, facing with the expeditiously spreading of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), it led to an unprecedented decline in public transit demand and revenue, while also exacerbating traffic congestion during peak hours. This study aims to improve the passengers' satisfaction problem of public transportation during the COVID-19 pandemic, and to assess their satisfaction degrees by conducting passengers’ satisfaction surveys. A novel projection-based regret theory approach based on interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FSs) is introduced to solve multi-criteria decision-making problems related to service evaluation. First, a projection model of IT2FSs is formulated, incorporating both distance and angle information. Second, by integrating this projection model with regret theory, new utility and regret-rejoice functions are constructed to enhance decision-making effectiveness. Comparative analyses with existing methods demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach in capturing the psychological factors of decision makers. The model yields more reliable and realistic outcomes, offering valuable insights into future enhancements in public transportation service quality. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis verifies the robustness of the method, as the ranking results remain stable when varying parameter settings. As a conclusion, the service quality of public transportation systems from the best to the worst in sequence are as follows: taxi, e-hailing, bus, van and metro, and this can assist policymakers and transit agencies in making more informed and efficient resource allocation decisions during and after the pandemic.

公共交通在城市交通中起着至关重要的作用，特别是在人口密集的大城市。因此，评估公共交通系统的服务质量已成为私营部门和公共部门的战略决策问题。特别是面对2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的快速传播，导致公共交通需求和收入前所未有的下降，同时也加剧了高峰时段的交通拥堵。本研究旨在改善COVID-19大流行期间乘客对公共交通的满意度问题，并通过乘客满意度调查来评估他们的满意度。针对服务评价中的多准则决策问题，提出了一种基于区间2型模糊集（IT2FSs）的基于投影的后悔理论方法。首先，建立了包含距离和角度信息的it2fs投影模型；其次，将该投影模型与后悔理论相结合，构建新的效用函数和后悔-欣喜函数，提高决策有效性。与现有方法的比较分析表明，所提出的方法在捕捉决策者的心理因素方面具有优越性。该模型产生了更可靠和现实的结果，为未来提高公共交通服务质量提供了宝贵的见解。此外，灵敏度分析验证了该方法的鲁棒性，在不同的参数设置下，排序结果保持稳定。综上所述，公共交通系统的服务质量从好到坏依次为：出租车、网约车、公共汽车、面包车和地铁，这可以帮助政策制定者和交通机构在大流行期间和之后做出更明智和有效的资源分配决策。

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引用次数: 0

How shared autonomous vehicle services affect commuters’ value of travel time in Shanghai, China 在中国上海，共享自动驾驶汽车服务如何影响通勤者的出行时间价值

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101704

Ke Wang , Jing Zhao , Hongcheng Gan , Zhen Wang , Yutong Li , Xin Ye

Shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs), a combination of shared mobility service and autonomous vehicle technology, are widely regarded as a promising pathway toward more sustainable, efficient, and equitable urban transportation systems. The impact of SAVs on commuters' value of travel time (VOTT) is critical for transportation planning authorities but remains insufficiently understood. Since the high uncertainty in the VOTT often arises from substantial preference heterogeneity across individuals, this paper developed a mixed multinomial Probit model with correlated error terms to analyze the impact of SAV service on commuters’ mode choice and the VOTT in Shanghai, China. The results show that, relative to the VOTT derived from revealed preference data, the VOTT for private cars based on stated preference data after the introduction of SAV services shows a slight increase, while the VOTTs for taxis and public transit remain largely unchanged. The results further indicate a reduction of nearly one-half in the VOTT for SAV relative to private cars. Policy implications are also discussed to promote the development and sustainability of urban mobilities.

共享自动驾驶汽车（sav）是共享出行服务和自动驾驶汽车技术的结合，被广泛认为是实现更可持续、更高效、更公平的城市交通系统的有希望的途径。sav对通勤者出行时间价值（VOTT）的影响对交通规划当局来说至关重要，但目前还没有得到充分的认识。考虑到出行方式的高不确定性往往源于个体之间的偏好异质性，本文建立了一个带有相关误差项的混合多项式Probit模型，分析了上海城市交通服务对通勤者出行方式选择和出行方式的影响。结果表明，相对于基于显性偏好数据得出的VOTT，引入自动驾驶汽车服务后，基于显性偏好数据得出的私家车VOTT略有上升，而出租车和公共交通的VOTT基本保持不变。结果进一步表明，与私家车相比，SAV的VOTT降低了近一半。本文还讨论了促进城市交通发展和可持续性的政策影响。

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引用次数: 0

Implementing residential parking policy: “It is like foisting a new religion upon them” 实施住宅停车政策：“这就像把一种新的宗教强加给他们”

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101703

Göran Smith , Anne Yu Faxér

The availability and price of residential parking are key determinants of car ownership and use. Residential parking reform can therefore significantly affect how people travel and thus contribute to sustainability transitions in urban mobility. Residential parking reforms have, however, proven difficult to implement. To address this problem, this paper analyzes the institutional conditions that influence residential parking policy formation and implementation. It does so through an exploratory case study of an ongoing, city-wide reform in Sweden. The analysis, which builds on interviews, observations, workshops, and a questionnaire, identifies multiple conditions at the inter-organizational, organizational, and intra-organizational levels that the people involved perceive as influencing the policy process. In terms of academic contributions, the findings deepen understanding of the challenges associated with implementing residential parking policies and show that regime lock-in within land-use planning, housing, and mobility can be a greater impediment to residential parking reform than resident opposition in the early phases of the policy process. The paper provides three recommendations for public officials overseeing residential parking reform: framing their task as organizational change and drawing inspiration from related frameworks; building legitimacy through incremental implementation; and monitoring and reporting reform-related outcomes through a public health benefits lens.

住宅停车场的可用性和价格是汽车拥有和使用的关键决定因素。因此，住宅停车改革可以显著影响人们的出行方式，从而促进城市交通的可持续性转型。然而，住宅停车改革已被证明难以实施。为了解决这一问题，本文分析了影响住宅停车政策形成和实施的制度条件。它通过对瑞典正在进行的全市改革的探索性案例研究来做到这一点。该分析建立在访谈、观察、研讨会和问卷调查的基础上，确定了组织间、组织和组织内各级的多种情况，相关人员认为这些情况会影响政策过程。就学术贡献而言，研究结果加深了对实施住宅停车政策相关挑战的理解，并表明在政策制定的早期阶段，土地使用规划、住房和流动性中的制度锁定可能比居民反对更大地阻碍住宅停车改革。本文为监督住宅停车改革的政府官员提供了三点建议：将他们的任务定义为组织变革，并从相关框架中汲取灵感；通过逐步实施建立合法性；并从公共卫生利益的角度监测和报告与改革有关的成果。

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引用次数: 0

Who benefits from autonomous vehicles? Distributional and general-equilibrium effects in a monocentric city with heterogeneous households and tax interactions 谁会从自动驾驶汽车中受益？异质性家庭与税收相互作用的单中心城市分配与一般均衡效应

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101702

Diego Candia

I study the welfare and distributional effects of autonomous vehicles (AVs) using a monocentric city model with heterogeneous households and endogenous labor supply. The formulation captures the fact that AVs allow performing activities while commuting. Numerical results show that AVs increase aggregate welfare, but low-skilled households can experience losses if they are initially located further from the CBD and only high-skilled households can afford an AV. This is due to high-skilled households moving to the periphery, causing an increase in housing prices for the low-skilled, among others general-equilibrium effects. Using the revenues from a distance-based road pricing to finance a labor tax cut for the low-skilled results in gains for both skill types, but reaches only 15% of the welfare increase obtained from using the revenues to finance a general labor tax cut. This latter recycling scheme almost doubles the welfare gains from the introduction of AVs, but amplifies its uneven effects.

本文采用具有异质性家庭和内生劳动力供给的单中心城市模型研究自动驾驶汽车的福利和分配效应。这个公式抓住了这样一个事实，即自动驾驶汽车允许在通勤时进行活动。数值结果表明，自动驾驶汽车增加了总福利，但如果低技能家庭最初位于远离CBD的地方，只有高技能家庭才能负担得起自动驾驶汽车，那么他们可能会遭受损失。这是由于高技能家庭向外围转移，导致低技能家庭的房价上涨，以及其他一般均衡效应。使用基于距离的道路收费的收入来资助低技能工人的劳动税减免，这两种技能类型都有收益，但只达到了使用收入来资助一般劳动税减免所获得的福利增加的15%。后一种回收方案几乎使引入自动驾驶汽车带来的福利收益翻了一番，但却放大了其不平衡效应。

引用次数: 0

Task-level causal effects of maintenance staffing shortages on aircraft-on-ground (AOG) and reliability 维修人员短缺对飞机在地（AOG）和可靠性的任务级因果影响

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101701

Arthur C. Dela Peña, Meredith I. Rutao

Staffing shortages in aircraft maintenance are a critical driver of operational cost and reliability, yet most studies focus on aggregated effects, obscuring task-level dynamics. This study provides quasi-experimental evidence linking staffing intensity (SI) and skill mix (SM) to aircraft-on-ground (AOG) exposure, deferrals, and repair reliability in a multi-base Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) setting. Using 24–36 months of operational data across five stations, we apply a staggered difference-in-differences event-study design, Cox proportional hazards modeling, and mediation analysis to estimate direct and indirect effects of staffing fluctuations. Shortage episodes are identified using station-specific SI thresholds, with outcomes measured in AOG minutes, deferrals per 100 departures, and time-to-closure. Results show shortages increase AOG exposure by 0.10 per 1000 flight hours and deferrals by 0.07 per 100 departures. Higher SI accelerates closure (Hazard Ratio HR ≈ 1.11) and reduces repeat-defect risk (OR 0.88–0.91), with two-thirds of the effect mediated through variance in turnaround time (TAT) and deferral reduction. Effects are concentrated at night, during rainfall, at smaller bases, and in Air Transport Association (ATA) 21/24 systems. Policy simulations show skill-mix upgrades yield the lowest cost per AOG-minute avoided, offering actionable strategies for risk-based staffing and predictive rostering.

飞机维修人员短缺是运营成本和可靠性的关键驱动因素，但大多数研究都集中在总体效应上，模糊了任务级动态。本研究提供了准实验证据，将人员配备强度（SI）和技能组合（SM）与多基地维护、维修和大修（MRO）设置中的飞机在地（AOG）暴露、延误和维修可靠性联系起来。利用5个站点24-36个月的运营数据，我们采用交错差中差事件研究设计、Cox比例风险建模和中介分析来估计人员波动的直接和间接影响。使用车站特定的SI阈值来确定短缺事件，其结果以AOG分钟、每100次发车延误时间和关闭时间来衡量。结果显示，航班短缺每1000个飞行小时增加0.1个AOG暴露，每100次起飞增加0.07个延误。较高的SI加速闭合（风险比HR≈1.11）并降低重复缺陷风险（OR 0.88-0.91），其中三分之二的效果是通过周转时间（TAT）和延迟减少的差异介导的。影响集中在夜间、降雨期间、较小的基地和航空运输协会（ATA） 21/24系统。政策模拟显示，技能组合升级可避免的每aog分钟成本最低，为基于风险的人员配置和预测调度提供了可操作的策略。

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引用次数: 0

Did transportation electrification help to reduce transportation sector CO2 emissions? A study considering the dynamic electricity carbon emission factor 交通电气化是否有助于减少交通部门的二氧化碳排放？考虑动态电力碳排放因子的研究

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101698

Guiwen Liu, Jia Wang, Pengpeng Xu, Rundong Chen, Haona Yao

Transportation electrification is a key strategy for achieving carbon neutrality goals. However, the contributions of transportation electrification to carbon emissions (CRE) depend on the degree of power grid decarbonization. This study employed the Kaya Identity, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model, and Moran's Index to examine CRE and its spatial clustering characteristics across China's seven power grid regions from 2004 to 2022, covering 30 provinces. Results indicated that the transportation electrification rate (EE) remained stable in the early years but increased gradually after 2016, reaching 12.35 % by 2022. Transportation electrification primarily impacts carbon emissions through three aspects: electricity substitution, electricity decarbonization, and energy efficiency improvement. Transportation electrification resulted in an additional 9.94 Mt of carbon emissions from 2004 to 2022, with the electricity substitution effect being the primary contributing factor. Most provinces have not achieved carbon reductions through transportation electrification. This outcome is mainly because these provinces have placed greater emphasis on the quantity of transportation electrification (rapid EE increase) rather than its quality (lagging grid decarbonization). Furthermore, regarding spatial distribution, CRE exhibits a clear pattern of “high in the north and low in the south”, indicating spatial clustering. This study provides valuable insights for advancing transportation electrification strategies.

交通电气化是实现碳中和目标的关键战略。然而，交通电气化对碳排放（CRE）的贡献取决于电网的脱碳程度。本文采用Kaya恒等、LMDI模型和Moran指数对2004 - 2022年中国7个电网区域30个省份的CRE及其空间聚类特征进行了研究。结果表明，交通电气化率（EE）在早期保持稳定，但在2016年之后逐渐上升，到2022年达到12.35%。交通电气化主要通过电力替代、电力脱碳和能源效率提高三个方面影响碳排放。从2004年到2022年，交通电气化导致了额外的994万吨碳排放，其中电力替代效应是主要因素。大多数省份还没有通过交通电气化实现碳减排。这一结果主要是因为这些省份更加重视交通电气化的数量（快速的EE增长），而不是其质量（滞后的电网脱碳）。在空间分布上，CRE呈现出明显的“北高南低”的格局，具有空间集聚性。本研究为推进交通电气化战略提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0