How temperatures derived from fluid flow and heat transport models impact predictions of deep geothermal potentials: the “heat in place” method applied to Hesse (Germany)

One key aspect in the energy transition is to use the deep geothermal energy stored in sedimentary basins as well as in igneous and metamorphic basement rocks. To estimate the variability of deep geothermal potentials across different geological domains as encountered in the Federal State of Hesse (Germany), it is necessary to understand the driving processes of fluid flow and heat transport affecting subsurface temperature variations. In this study, we quantify the stored energy in a set of geological units in the subsurface of Hesse with the method of “heat in place” (HIP, sensu Muffler and Cataldi in Geothermics 7:53–89, 1978)—HIP is one proxy for the geothermal potential of these units controlled by their temperature configuration as derived from a series of coupled 3D thermo-hydraulic numerical models. We show how conductive, advective and convective heat transport mechanisms influence the thermal field and thereby the HIP calculations. The heterogeneous geology of the subsurface of Hesse ranges from locally outcropping Paleozoic basement rocks to up to 3.8 km thick Cenozoic, porous sedimentary deposits in the tectonically active northern Upper Rhine Graben. The HIP was quantified for five sedimentary layers (Cenozoic, Muschelkalk, Buntsandstein, Zechstein, Rotliegend) as well as for the underlying basement. We present a set of maps allowing to identify geothermally prospective subregions of Hesse based on the laterally varying thermal energy stored within the units. HIP is predicted to be highest in the area of the northern Upper Rhine Graben in the Cenozoic unit with up to 700 GJ \(\text {m}^{-2}\) and in the Rotliegend with up to 617 GJ \(\text {m}^{-2}\). The calculations account for the variable thicknesses and temperatures of the layers, density and heat capacity of the solid and fluid parts of the rocks as well as porosity.