Efficient and sustainable exploitation of geothermal energy depends critically on accurate characterization of reservoir permeability, which governs subsurface fluid flow and thermal performance. While well testing and core analysis remain essential for establishing ground-truth permeability, these methods can be costly and limited in spatial resolution, making it challenging to fully capture the fine-scale heterogeneity and fracture complexity characteristic of geothermal formations. Moreover, standard Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR)-based permeability models, while widely used in hydrocarbon reservoirs, tend to underperform under geothermal conditions due to elevated temperatures and high fluid salinity. To address these challenges, this study proposes a novel data-driven framework for predicting absolute permeability in geothermal rocks using NMR laboratory measurements and advanced machine learning algorithms. A curated dataset of 72 core samples from the GBD4 geothermal well (Catinat M et al. in Geothermics 111:102707, 2023) was used, incorporating porosity, lithology, the logarithmic mean relaxation time (T2lm), and the mode of the relaxation time distribution (T2mode) as input features. Eight models were developed: Decision Trees, AdaBoost, K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Ensemble Learning, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Random Forest. Outlier detection was performed using the Leverage method, and model robustness was validated via K-fold cross-validation. Among all models, MLP-ANN achieved the highest predictive accuracy with a test R2 of 0.943 and a test RMSE of 68.52. Importantly, this study differs from prior NMR–ML permeability models by explicitly validating performance under geothermal temperature–salinity conditions. The results demonstrate that porosity is the most influential predictor of permeability, as confirmed by both Pearson correlation and SHAP analysis. This study integrates empirical core analysis with computational modeling, delivering a scalable and economical substitute for conventional laboratory techniques while propelling advancements in intelligent petrophysical characterization.
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