风暴潮灾害风险评估与区划,以苍南县为例

Tao Li , Cifu Fu , Fangdong Wang , Jianxi Dong
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引用次数: 3

摘要

利用ADCIRC浅水环流模式对浙江省苍南县进行了风暴潮和洪水模拟。主要目的是利用该模型对沿海风暴潮灾害风险进行估计和分区。后播实验表明,该模式系统对热带气旋引起的风暴潮变化有较好的捕捉效果。与观测值相比,水位峰值的平均偏差小于10%。采用假设的热带气旋和6 - 10月平均天文高潮19a,结合地理高程和土地描述对洪涝灾害进行评价。结果表明:金乡镇沿海地区和鳌江南岸地区的淹没危险性较高,江南地区和高海拔内陆地区的淹没危险性较低;并对洪涝灾害和结构脆弱性进行综合风险评估,将该县划分为不同的风暴潮灾害风险等级,为今后有效防范各类热带气旋风暴潮提供支持。
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Storm surge disaster risk assessment and zoning, taking Cangnan County for instance

The storm surge and inundation simulation using the shallow-water circulation model ADCIRC has been implemented for the Cangnan County of Zhejiang Province. The main purpose is using this model to estimate the coastal storm surge disaster risk and zoning. The hindcast experiments indicate that the model system has good performance in capturing the changes of storm surge caused by tropical cyclones. Compared to the observations, the average deviation of the peak value of water level is less than 10%. We used the hypothetical tropical cyclones and the 19a of June-October mean high astronomical tide, and combined the geographic elevation and land description to assess the inundation hazard. It shows that the inundation hazard is high in the coastal region of Jinxiang Town and the south bank area of Aojiang River, but is relatively low in the Jiangnan Inning and the high altitude inland areas. The risk assessment that integrates the inundation hazard and the structure vulnerability is also conducted to zone the county into the different storm surge disaster risk levels, which can give support to the effective prevention of various tropical cyclone storm surge in the future.

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