全球经济展望通胀促使政策正常化

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS National Institute Economic Review Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.1017/nie.2022.17

C. Macchiarelli, B. Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, I. Hurst, I. Liadze, Xuxin Mao, Patricia Sanchez Juanino, C. Thamotheram

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引用次数: 1

摘要

尽管预测2021年和2022年的GDP增长略弱于我们之前的预期，但我们对世界经济的预测仍是2021年增长5.7%，2022年增长4.2%(图1)，略低于我们的秋季展望。世界经济增长将进一步放缓，到2023年降至3.5%，由于病毒和供应链中断，风险倾向于下行。我们估计，这场大流行病将导致2025年全球国内生产总值占国内生产总值的比例比我们在大流行病前的预期低约3%，到2025年的累计损失将达到约28万亿美元。

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Global Economic Outlook Inflation prompts policy normalisation

Despite forecasting GDP growth in 2021 and 2022 a bit weaker than we previously thought, our forecast for the world economy is still for an expansion of 5.7 per cent in 2021 and 4.2 in 2022 (Figure 1), marginally lower than our Autumn Outlook. Growth of the world economy is set to slow down further, to 3.5 per cent in 2023, with risks skewed to the downside due to the virus and supply chain disruptions. We estimate that the pandemic will result in the level of global GDP being about 3 per cent of GDP lower in 2025 than our pre-pandemic expectation, with the cumulative loss up to 2025 amounting to around $28 trillion.

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来源期刊

National Institute Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

9.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： The National Institute Economic Review is the quarterly publication of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, one of Britain"s oldest and most prestigious independent research organisations. The Institutes objective is to promote, through quantitative research, a deeper understanding of the interaction of economic and social forces that affect peoples" lives so that they may be improved. It has no political affiliation, and receives no core funding from government. Its research programme is organised under the headings of Economic Modelling and Analysis; Productivity; Education and Training and the International Economy.