水管理是绵羊饲养场未来的必需品

J. Pluske, A. Schlink
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引用次数: 5

摘要

改善西澳大利亚州瓦金等农村城镇的水资源管理,将减少水和盐分对基础设施造成的破坏,并产生一种“新的水资源”。本文的目的是使用生物经济模型H20Sheep来预测饲养场的水需求,以确定使用这种“新水”资源是否可能是该生产系统的可行选择。瓦金(-33.3075 S, 117.3403 E)是珀斯东南部的一个乡镇,被选为生产优质羔羊的绵羊饲养场的具体地点。本文采用H20Sheep模型分析了水价、不同饲养方式和气候变化对饲养场收益的影响。这是通过综合羔羊的饲料和水摄入量,一般饲养场用水和废物处理来完成的。为了显示其他与水没有直接关系的模型参数变化的相对敏感性,还研究了羔羊购销价格的变化。正如预期的那样,H20Sheep表明,羊饲养场企业的回报对羔羊购买量(仅仅增加7%以上就会导致负回报)和销售价格(减少4%就会产生负结果)的变化非常敏感。关于水,研究结果表明,虽然饲养场用水和价格的增长必须大于羊的相对价格的增长,但从管理和经济角度来看,监测与水有关的生物参数以及水价仍然很重要。因此,如果参与农村城镇-流动资产项目的城镇,如瓦金,决定出售其水,相关政策制定者应确保销售价格使城镇能够建立有效的水管理系统,并对饲养场等最终用户具有吸引力。
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Water management as a future necessity in sheep feedlots
Improving water management in rural towns such as Wagin, Western Australia, will decrease infrastructure damage caused by water and salinity and produce a ‘new water’ resource. The aim of this paper is to predict feedlot water demand using a bioeconomic model, H20Sheep, to determine if using such a ‘new water’ resource could be a viable option for this production system. Wagin (–33.3075 S, 117.3403 E), a township south-east of Perth, was chosen as the specific location for a sheep feedlot producing prime lambs. In this paper, the H20Sheep model was used to show how feedlot returns are influenced by the price of water, different feeding regimens and climate change. This was done by integrating feed and water intake of lambs, general feedlot water use and waste disposal. To show relative sensitivity of changing other model parameters that are not directly connected with water, changes in the purchase and sale price of lambs were also investigated. As might be expected, H20Sheep shows that returns from a sheep feedlot enterprise can be extremely sensitive to changes in lamb purchase (just over 7% increase will result in negative returns) and sale prices (a 4% decrease will generate a negative outcome). With respect to water, the findings indicate that, while increases in water use in the feedlot and price have to be greater than the increase in relative price of sheep, monitoring the biological parameters associated with water as well as water prices is still important both from a management and an economic perspective. Hence, if towns involved in the Rural Towns – Liquid Assets project, such as Wagin, decide to sell their water, the relevant policy makers should ensure that the sale price enables an effective water management system for the town and is also attractive to end-users such as feedlots.
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