Does Russia Have the Fiscal Capacity to Achieve its Military Modernisation Goals?

Abstract In this article, Edward Hunter Christie sheds light on the extent to which Russia’s economic trajectory may enable or constrain its military modernisation goals. It adds to existing research by using quantitative scenarios and counterfactual analyses of the state’s fiscal conditions under different assumed levels of ambition for defence procurement spending. This approach leads to a more evidence-based assessment of the policy preferences of the Russian leadership. It also provides an objective basis for evaluating Russia’s fiscal capacity to fulfil its ambitions in a mid-term perspective.