The impact of transit-oriented development (TOD) on residential property prices: the case of Box Hill, Melbourne

Transit-oriented design (TOD) – an increase in density around transit stations – has arisen in many of Australia’s capital cities as a way to encourage mass transit ridership as well as to efficiently utilize the increase in foot and vehicle traffic that transit stations create. However, the implementation of TODs in Melbourne has faced strong opposition due to residents’ perception that the disamenities of a TOD will outweigh the benefits resulting in negative impacts on property prices. This research analyzes the relationship between proximity to a TOD and residential home prices. Results indicate that proximity to a TOD is positively related to property prices, even after controlling for neighborhood factors such as street connectivity and overall land use mix. By testing a variety of transformations of distance, we find that the benefits of TOD proximity extend approximately 1250 m from the Box Hill station. From a methodological standpoint, we find that more flexible treatments of distance variables in spatial autoregressive and spline models produce better model fit and lead to results more in line with urban economic theory.