将模式与卫星和大气内观测相结合降低气溶胶强迫的不确定性:一条三边街

IF 25.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Reviews of Geophysics Pub Date : 2023-05-03 DOI:10.1029/2022RG000796
Ralph A. Kahn, Elisabeth Andrews, Charles A. Brock, Mian Chin, Graham Feingold, Andrew Gettelman, Robert C. Levy, Daniel M. Murphy, Athanasios Nenes, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Thomas Popp, Jens Redemann, Andrew M. Sayer, Arlindo M. da Silva, Larisa Sogacheva, Philip Stier
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引用次数: 1

摘要

气溶胶强迫的不确定性代表了总体上最大的气候强迫不确定性。在过去的20年中,尽管在了解大多数关键因素方面取得了相当大的进展,但其规模几乎没有减少。最近的工作只在不确定性估计本身的信心方面产生了适度的增加。本综述总结了卫星观测、大气内测量以及模拟和数据同化对减少气候气溶胶强迫不确定性的贡献。在评估各自的优势和局限性时,我们采用了比大多数评论更以测量为导向的观点;考虑了差距和可能的填补方法。目前计划的项目支持先进的、全球尺度的卫星和地面气溶胶、云和前体气体观测、气候建模以及旨在描述所涉及的潜在物理和化学过程的密集实地活动,这些都是必不可少的。但除此之外,还需要作出新的努力:(a)获得系统的飞机现场测量,获取主要气溶胶气团类型的粒子光学、微物理和化学性质(以及相关的不确定性估计)的多变量概率分布函数,以及与气象学的共变率;(b)构思、开发和实施亚轨道(飞机加地面)计划,旨在系统地量化云尺度微物理、云光学特性和与气溶胶-云相互作用相关的云相关垂直速度;(c)将更多的研究重点放在整合卫星观测、亚轨道测量和模拟的独特贡献上,以减少气溶胶气候强迫的持续不确定性。
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Reducing Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty by Combining Models With Satellite and Within-The-Atmosphere Observations: A Three-Way Street

Aerosol forcing uncertainty represents the largest climate forcing uncertainty overall. Its magnitude has remained virtually undiminished over the past 20 years despite considerable advances in understanding most of the key contributing elements. Recent work has produced modest increases only in the confidence of the uncertainty estimate itself. This review summarizes the contributions toward reducing the uncertainty in the aerosol forcing of climate made by satellite observations, measurements taken within the atmosphere, as well as modeling and data assimilation. We adopt a more measurement-oriented perspective than most reviews of the subject in assessing the strengths and limitations of each; gaps and possible ways to fill them are considered. Currently planned programs supporting advanced, global-scale satellite and surface-based aerosol, cloud, and precursor gas observations, climate modeling, and intensive field campaigns aimed at characterizing the underlying physical and chemical processes involved, are all essential. But in addition, new efforts are needed: (a) to obtain systematic aircraft in situ measurements capturing the multi-variate probability distribution functions of particle optical, microphysical, and chemical properties (and associated uncertainty estimates), as well as co-variability with meteorology, for the major aerosol airmass types; (b) to conceive, develop, and implement a suborbital (aircraft plus surface-based) program aimed at systematically quantifying the cloud-scale microphysics, cloud optical properties, and cloud-related vertical velocities associated with aerosol-cloud interactions; and (c) to focus much more research on integrating the unique contributions of satellite observations, suborbital measurements, and modeling, to reduce the persistent uncertainty in aerosol climate forcing.

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来源期刊
Reviews of Geophysics
Reviews of Geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
50.30
自引率
0.80%
发文量
28
审稿时长
12 months
期刊介绍: Geophysics Reviews (ROG) offers comprehensive overviews and syntheses of current research across various domains of the Earth and space sciences. Our goal is to present accessible and engaging reviews that cater to the diverse AGU community. While authorship is typically by invitation, we warmly encourage readers and potential authors to share their suggestions with our editors.
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