人为干旱:定义、挑战和机遇

IF 25.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Reviews of Geophysics Pub Date : 2021-01-28 DOI:10.1029/2019RG000683
Amir AghaKouchak, Ali Mirchi, Kaveh Madani, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Ali Nazemi, Aneseh Alborzi, Hassan Anjileli, Marzi Azarderakhsh, Felicia Chiang, Elmira Hassanzadeh, Laurie S. Huning, Iman Mallakpour, Alexandre Martinez, Omid Mazdiyasni, Hamed Moftakhari, Hamid Norouzi, Mojtaba Sadegh, Dalal Sadeqi, Anne F. Van Loon, Niko Wanders
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引用次数: 83

摘要

传统的、主流的干旱定义将其描述为由于当地决策者无法控制的自然变量导致的与水有关的变量或依赖水的活动(如降水、土壤湿度、地表水和地下水储存以及灌溉)的缺失。在这里,我们认为,在耦合的人-水系统中,干旱必须被定义和理解为一个过程,而不是一个产品,以帮助更好地框架和描述自然和人为引起的变化的复杂和相互关联的动态,这些变化将人为干旱定义为一种复合的多维和多尺度现象,受自然水变率、气候变化、人类决策和活动的综合支配。以及由于土地和水资源管理的变化而改变的小气候条件。这一定义考虑了人类-自然系统中驱动人为干旱发展的全方位动态反馈和过程(例如陆地-大气相互作用以及水和能量平衡)。这一过程扩大了供水需求缺口,并可能导致水破产,在未来几十年,由于气候变化和全球环境恶化的复合影响下,水需求不断增长,水破产将在全球范围内变得更加猖獗。这一挑战实际上对短期和长期水资源规划和管理、水治理和政策制定都有影响。本文简要概述了人为干旱的概念及其实例,讨论了现有的研究差距和机会,以便更好地理解、建模和管理这一现象。
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Anthropogenic Drought: Definition, Challenges, and Opportunities

Traditional, mainstream definitions of drought describe it as deficit in water-related variables or water-dependent activities (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, surface and groundwater storage, and irrigation) due to natural variabilities that are out of the control of local decision-makers. Here, we argue that within coupled human-water systems, drought must be defined and understood as a process as opposed to a product to help better frame and describe the complex and interrelated dynamics of both natural and human-induced changes that define anthropogenic drought as a compound multidimensional and multiscale phenomenon, governed by the combination of natural water variability, climate change, human decisions and activities, and altered micro-climate conditions due to changes in land and water management. This definition considers the full spectrum of dynamic feedbacks and processes (e.g., land-atmosphere interactions and water and energy balance) within human-nature systems that drive the development of anthropogenic drought. This process magnifies the water supply demand gap and can lead to water bankruptcy, which will become more rampant around the globe in the coming decades due to continuously growing water demands under compounding effects of climate change and global environmental degradation. This challenge has de facto implications for both short-term and long-term water resources planning and management, water governance, and policymaking. Herein, after a brief overview of the anthropogenic drought concept and its examples, we discuss existing research gaps and opportunities for better understanding, modeling, and management of this phenomenon.

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来源期刊
Reviews of Geophysics
Reviews of Geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
50.30
自引率
0.80%
发文量
28
审稿时长
12 months
期刊介绍: Geophysics Reviews (ROG) offers comprehensive overviews and syntheses of current research across various domains of the Earth and space sciences. Our goal is to present accessible and engaging reviews that cater to the diverse AGU community. While authorship is typically by invitation, we warmly encourage readers and potential authors to share their suggestions with our editors.
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