城市:经济交易的反应炉

IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting Pub Date : 2004-01-01 DOI:10.1142/9781848164284_0004
I. Purica
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引用次数: 4

摘要

每个经济体中按收入分配的人与各种物理系统中遇到的麦克斯韦-玻尔兹曼均衡分配相似。人们为了生存而进行的交易(以各种方式)使他们变得更穷,因为他们减少了他们拥有的钱。“工作并获得报酬”类型的交易正在重建人们的财务能力。将这一过程描述为圆柱形几何中的扩散方程,得到贝塞尔函数J0(r)解,该解与巴黎(作为典型的圆形城市)的人口密度分布相匹配。对收入减少的分析表明,储蓄/消费行为函数占总收入的15% - 20%左右。这可能解释了为什么在不同的经济体中,储蓄价值经常占GDP的15%-22%。此外,一个简单的城市动态行为方程(设定365天的周期)得出的结果是,在一周之后,人们必须获得报酬才能重新开始交易。交易横截面s显示出“1/收入”行为,衡量交易能力,与企业收入大于给定价值的概率成正比——这种行为最近被证明发生在各种经济体中,它被称为齐夫定律。利用中子物理方法描述经济交易环境,为经济系统行为的预测模型提供了另一种视角,表明城市的地理维度是由该城市的经济交易行为/环境决定的。
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THE CITIES: REACTORS OF ECONOMIC TRANSACTIONS
The distribution of persons in each economy by their incomes is similar to the Maxwell-Boltzmann equilibrium distribution encountered in various physical systems. The transactions the persons are making to buy things that make them survive (in all sort of ways) are making them ‘poorer’, as they diminish the amount of money they have. The ‘work and get paid’ type of transactions are rebuilding the financial capacity of the persons. Describing this process as a diffusion equation, in a cylindrical geometry, results in a Bessel function J0(r) solution which matches the density distribution of persons in Paris (as a typical circular pattern city). The analysis of the decrease in income shows a saving/spending behavior function which saturates around 15% - 20% of the total income. This is a possible explanation of the frequent savings value of 15%-22% of GDP found in various economies. Moreover, a simple equation for the dynamic behavior of a city, on which a 365 days period is imposed, results in one week as the time after which persons have to be paid to restart transactions. The transaction cross section s is shown to have a “1/income” behavior, being a measure of the capability to make transactions, proportional to the probability of enterprises to have an income greater than a given value – this behavior has recently been shown to happen in various economies and it is known as the Zipf’s law. Using neutron physics methods in describing the economic transactions environment opens an alternative view on the forecasting models of an economic system’s behavior, and shows that the geographical dimension of a city is determined by the economic transaction behavior/environment in that city.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.70
自引率
20.00%
发文量
0
期刊介绍: The Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting (RJEF) aims to become a leading journal in the field of economic modeling and forecasting for emerging and frontier markets (EFM). It is the official publication of the Institute for Economic Forecasting (IEF) within the Romanian Academy. The objective of the Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting is to promote research covering quantitative models of the macroeconomic and microeconomic activity. Focusing mainly on empirical studies meant to provide a testing environment for the theoretical models, the journal also encourages the development of relevant analysis both theoretical and applied that yields fresh insights and promotes the efficient integration of new econometric techniques like non-linear modeling, agent-based models and complex systems developed for the emerging and frontier markets. Topics covered in the Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting: Economic and econometric modeling and forecasting Non-linear macroeconomic modeling Financial modeling and forecasting Forecasting applications in macroeconomic policies, government and business Implementation of forecasting Impact of forecast uncertainty on decision making Marketing modeling and forecasting Applications in complex systems theory Applications of agent-based models Applications of spatial models Transdisciplinary developments of economic models Econophysics applications.
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