Ecuador is a developing country characterized by severe territorial disparities reflected in a heterogeneous economic and social geography that risk to undermine a future balanced development. The paper analyses for the first time the impact of main economic sectors on sub-national growth process in the context of the “Changing Productive Matrix” policy objective, which aims to achieve productive diversification based on adding value through de-concentration of production from the existing poles to the whole territory. The estimation is performed using new data provided by Central Bank of Ecuador for the period 2007-2014 through a panel econometric technique. The results prove that, despite the strategy aimed at changing the productive matrix pushed by the government, this process is far to be completed. In particular, the country is too much focused on low productive sectors which depress economic growth and the manufacture and financial services sectors are too much concentrated in few areas, preventing their possible positive effect into the whole economy.
{"title":"Territorial growth in Ecuador: the role of economic sectors","authors":"R. Muñoz, N. Pontarollo","doi":"10.2791/740497","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2791/740497","url":null,"abstract":"Ecuador is a developing country characterized by severe territorial disparities reflected in a heterogeneous economic and social geography that risk to undermine a future balanced development. The paper analyses for the first time the impact of main economic sectors on sub-national growth process in the context of the “Changing Productive Matrix” policy objective, which aims to achieve productive diversification based on adding value through de-concentration of production from the existing poles to the whole territory. The estimation is performed using new data provided by Central Bank of Ecuador for the period 2007-2014 through a panel econometric technique. The results prove that, despite the strategy aimed at changing the productive matrix pushed by the government, this process is far to be completed. In particular, the country is too much focused on low productive sectors which depress economic growth and the manufacture and financial services sectors are too much concentrated in few areas, preventing their possible positive effect into the whole economy.","PeriodicalId":45554,"journal":{"name":"Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69211470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-09-25DOI: 10.4337/9781784719807.00025
D. Dăianu
This paper looks at policy dilemmas the National Bank of Romania has faced over the years, with the analysis framed in a European and historical context. Some of these dilemmas are of an older vintage, such as how to deal with massive capital flows, how to combat high inflation when resource misallocation is a very burdensome legacy and expectations of high inflation are well entrenched. Other dilemmas are pretty new, or have got salience during the Great Recession. Romania has had to undertake a painful correction of its large macroeconomic imbalances. “Light” inflation targeting has provided leeway for mitigating the fallout from the financial crisis, although high euroization has dented its efficacy. The specter of stagnation in the Euro Area, financial deleveraging, unconventional policies which are pursued by key central banks, the ongoing reform of banking regulation and supervision, a growing shadow banking, how will the Banking Union evolve, etc, make up a very complicated European context and pose a range of big challenges for the central banks of New Member States (NMSs).
{"title":"A CENTRAL BANK’S DILEMMAS IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TIMES - A ROMANIAN VIEW","authors":"D. Dăianu","doi":"10.4337/9781784719807.00025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784719807.00025","url":null,"abstract":"This paper looks at policy dilemmas the National Bank of Romania has faced over the years, with the analysis framed in a European and historical context. Some of these dilemmas are of an older vintage, such as how to deal with massive capital flows, how to combat high inflation when resource misallocation is a very burdensome legacy and expectations of high inflation are well entrenched. Other dilemmas are pretty new, or have got salience during the Great Recession. Romania has had to undertake a painful correction of its large macroeconomic imbalances. “Light” inflation targeting has provided leeway for mitigating the fallout from the financial crisis, although high euroization has dented its efficacy. The specter of stagnation in the Euro Area, financial deleveraging, unconventional policies which are pursued by key central banks, the ongoing reform of banking regulation and supervision, a growing shadow banking, how will the Banking Union evolve, etc, make up a very complicated European context and pose a range of big challenges for the central banks of New Member States (NMSs).","PeriodicalId":45554,"journal":{"name":"Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.4337/9781784719807.00025","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70706649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
For analyzing the aftermath of the latest global financial crisis, five major variables are used in this study to provide separate measures of the performance of 32 representative investment and commercial banks amongst the world’s 1,000 largest banks, in order to explore the changes in their overall performances. These measures are - the equity ratio (relating to capital adequacy), the operating cost ratio (management capability), the return on equity (shareholders’ profitability), the return on assets (bank profitability) and Tobin’s Q (business value). Our empirical results reveal that following the disclosure of the sub-prime crisis, management capability, profitability and business value, in both investment and commercial banks alike, all took a turn for the worse, with clear rises in their risks of management capability and profitability; there has also been significant deterioration in the capital adequacy of investment banks. However, the significant declines in both the management capability and profitability of investment banks and commercial banks in the developed markets differ quite markedly from the findings on similar representative banks in the emerging markets; that is, investment and commercial banks within the developed nations suffered more direct and pronounced impacts from the credit crisis than those within the emerging markets. As a direct result of the sub-prime crisis, there were significant declines in the capital adequacy and profitability of investment banks, as well as similar significant declines in the profitability and business value of commercial banks, regardless of the overall size of the bank. These results stand in stark contrast to the findings reported by both Li (2003) and Aysan and Ceyhan (2008), that when faced with financial crisis, the scale of a bank will be found to have a positive correlation with its financial performance.
{"title":"History of Credit Crisis as a Mirror: An International Perspective on the Impact of the Sub-Prime Crisis on the Performance of Investment and Commercial Banks","authors":"Yang-Cheng Lu, H. Fang, Shu‐Lien Chang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2219670","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2219670","url":null,"abstract":"For analyzing the aftermath of the latest global financial crisis, five major variables are used in this study to provide separate measures of the performance of 32 representative investment and commercial banks amongst the world’s 1,000 largest banks, in order to explore the changes in their overall performances. These measures are - the equity ratio (relating to capital adequacy), the operating cost ratio (management capability), the return on equity (shareholders’ profitability), the return on assets (bank profitability) and Tobin’s Q (business value). Our empirical results reveal that following the disclosure of the sub-prime crisis, management capability, profitability and business value, in both investment and commercial banks alike, all took a turn for the worse, with clear rises in their risks of management capability and profitability; there has also been significant deterioration in the capital adequacy of investment banks. However, the significant declines in both the management capability and profitability of investment banks and commercial banks in the developed markets differ quite markedly from the findings on similar representative banks in the emerging markets; that is, investment and commercial banks within the developed nations suffered more direct and pronounced impacts from the credit crisis than those within the emerging markets. As a direct result of the sub-prime crisis, there were significant declines in the capital adequacy and profitability of investment banks, as well as similar significant declines in the profitability and business value of commercial banks, regardless of the overall size of the bank. These results stand in stark contrast to the findings reported by both Li (2003) and Aysan and Ceyhan (2008), that when faced with financial crisis, the scale of a bank will be found to have a positive correlation with its financial performance.","PeriodicalId":45554,"journal":{"name":"Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68000664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-01-01DOI: 10.1002/9781119208020.ch8
I. Ioniţă, M. Stoica
The authors present in this paper the results of a research initiated in the field of company valuation, that is a current activity in Romania, generated by the privatization process and by other processes specific to market economy. The results of this research allowed us to develop this field at the level that exceeds the achievements, both in Romania and in Europe. We refer to the possibility to apply the subtle sets to the valuation of goodwill elements that enhance a company’s value. The evaluation of such elements is currently made by means of an accounting approach, which does not respond to the requirements of informing the future buyers.
{"title":"A New Approach Method Of Company Valuation","authors":"I. Ioniţă, M. Stoica","doi":"10.1002/9781119208020.ch8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119208020.ch8","url":null,"abstract":"The authors present in this paper the results of a research initiated in the field of company valuation, that is a current activity in Romania, generated by the privatization process and by other processes specific to market economy. The results of this research allowed us to develop this field at the level that exceeds the achievements, both in Romania and in Europe. We refer to the possibility to apply the subtle sets to the valuation of goodwill elements that enhance a company’s value. The evaluation of such elements is currently made by means of an accounting approach, which does not respond to the requirements of informing the future buyers.","PeriodicalId":45554,"journal":{"name":"Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2009-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1002/9781119208020.ch8","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50760711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2008-01-01DOI: 10.1142/9781848164284_0003
I. Purica
Migration becomes a more and more significant process that triggers various types of complex behavior. After analyzing the process, especially with regard to the occurrence of nonlinear behavior, a model is build to include the features that may lead to the occurrence of cycles of migration reverse. The results of a simulation are showing patterns of behavior similar to the Italian case of large ex-migrations in the fifties that were reversed in mid seventies. A set of potential applications on migration from newly entrant countries in the EU to EU-15 is possible especially related to actions that may speed up the moment of migration cycle reverse.
{"title":"Second order effects in population migration","authors":"I. Purica","doi":"10.1142/9781848164284_0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/9781848164284_0003","url":null,"abstract":"Migration becomes a more and more significant process that triggers various types of complex behavior. After analyzing the process, especially with regard to the occurrence of nonlinear behavior, a model is build to include the features that may lead to the occurrence of cycles of migration reverse. The results of a simulation are showing patterns of behavior similar to the Italian case of large ex-migrations in the fifties that were reversed in mid seventies. A set of potential applications on migration from newly entrant countries in the EU to EU-15 is possible especially related to actions that may speed up the moment of migration cycle reverse.","PeriodicalId":45554,"journal":{"name":"Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2008-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64004382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2006-01-01DOI: 10.1142/9781848164284_0005
I. Purica
The reform of a single player power sector (i.e. a natural monopoly) into a multiple-players power market brings to the clients not only the benefits of competition but also the costs of complexity. In between the two, an optimal number of players is found, corresponding to the minimum price of power to the clients. Considering time as the third dimension, the optimum curve becomes a potential surface on which the evolution of the market entities is seen as oscillations (mergers and unbundling) along the valley of the minimum price. Every oscillation triggers a price burst, which is detrimental to the clients. To avoid this, the role of the regulator is better defined in the sense of smoothing the transition from monopoly to market. The example of the US and of the EU power sectors evolution is relevant here. In the above approach, long range competition resulting from the future opening of power markets in Europe, or from the penetration, 70 years ago, of the interconnection technology in USA, is compared with the short range (local) competition. Finally, the price limits are determined, which ensure that (i) the new entrants on the market are not eliminated and (ii) the market avoids oscillations (chaotic behavior), which may drastically shock a non-resilient economy. A case study calculation is made for a transition economy (Romania).
{"title":"Considerations on the Reform in the Power Sector (Avoiding Chaos on the Path to an Optimal Market Structure)","authors":"I. Purica","doi":"10.1142/9781848164284_0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/9781848164284_0005","url":null,"abstract":"The reform of a single player power sector (i.e. a natural monopoly) into a multiple-players power market brings to the clients not only the benefits of competition but also the costs of complexity. In between the two, an optimal number of players is found, corresponding to the minimum price of power to the clients. Considering time as the third dimension, the optimum curve becomes a potential surface on which the evolution of the market entities is seen as oscillations (mergers and unbundling) along the valley of the minimum price. Every oscillation triggers a price burst, which is detrimental to the clients. To avoid this, the role of the regulator is better defined in the sense of smoothing the transition from monopoly to market. The example of the US and of the EU power sectors evolution is relevant here. In the above approach, long range competition resulting from the future opening of power markets in Europe, or from the penetration, 70 years ago, of the interconnection technology in USA, is compared with the short range (local) competition. Finally, the price limits are determined, which ensure that (i) the new entrants on the market are not eliminated and (ii) the market avoids oscillations (chaotic behavior), which may drastically shock a non-resilient economy. A case study calculation is made for a transition economy (Romania).","PeriodicalId":45554,"journal":{"name":"Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2006-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64004469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2004-01-01DOI: 10.1142/9781848164284_0004
I. Purica
The distribution of persons in each economy by their incomes is similar to the Maxwell-Boltzmann equilibrium distribution encountered in various physical systems. The transactions the persons are making to buy things that make them survive (in all sort of ways) are making them ‘poorer’, as they diminish the amount of money they have. The ‘work and get paid’ type of transactions are rebuilding the financial capacity of the persons. Describing this process as a diffusion equation, in a cylindrical geometry, results in a Bessel function J0(r) solution which matches the density distribution of persons in Paris (as a typical circular pattern city). The analysis of the decrease in income shows a saving/spending behavior function which saturates around 15% - 20% of the total income. This is a possible explanation of the frequent savings value of 15%-22% of GDP found in various economies. Moreover, a simple equation for the dynamic behavior of a city, on which a 365 days period is imposed, results in one week as the time after which persons have to be paid to restart transactions. The transaction cross section s is shown to have a “1/income” behavior, being a measure of the capability to make transactions, proportional to the probability of enterprises to have an income greater than a given value – this behavior has recently been shown to happen in various economies and it is known as the Zipf’s law. Using neutron physics methods in describing the economic transactions environment opens an alternative view on the forecasting models of an economic system’s behavior, and shows that the geographical dimension of a city is determined by the economic transaction behavior/environment in that city.
{"title":"THE CITIES: REACTORS OF ECONOMIC TRANSACTIONS","authors":"I. Purica","doi":"10.1142/9781848164284_0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/9781848164284_0004","url":null,"abstract":"The distribution of persons in each economy by their incomes is similar to the Maxwell-Boltzmann equilibrium distribution encountered in various physical systems. The transactions the persons are making to buy things that make them survive (in all sort of ways) are making them ‘poorer’, as they diminish the amount of money they have. The ‘work and get paid’ type of transactions are rebuilding the financial capacity of the persons. Describing this process as a diffusion equation, in a cylindrical geometry, results in a Bessel function J0(r) solution which matches the density distribution of persons in Paris (as a typical circular pattern city). The analysis of the decrease in income shows a saving/spending behavior function which saturates around 15% - 20% of the total income. This is a possible explanation of the frequent savings value of 15%-22% of GDP found in various economies. Moreover, a simple equation for the dynamic behavior of a city, on which a 365 days period is imposed, results in one week as the time after which persons have to be paid to restart transactions. The transaction cross section s is shown to have a “1/income” behavior, being a measure of the capability to make transactions, proportional to the probability of enterprises to have an income greater than a given value – this behavior has recently been shown to happen in various economies and it is known as the Zipf’s law. Using neutron physics methods in describing the economic transactions environment opens an alternative view on the forecasting models of an economic system’s behavior, and shows that the geographical dimension of a city is determined by the economic transaction behavior/environment in that city.","PeriodicalId":45554,"journal":{"name":"Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2004-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64004426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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