农牧民暴力对收入的影响:来自尼日利亚中部地带各州的新调查证据

IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Economics of Peace and Security Journal Pub Date : 2015-04-01 DOI:10.15355/EPSJ.10.1.54
Topher L. McDougal, Talia Hagerty, Lisa Inks, Claire-Lorentz Ugo-Ike, C. Dowd, S. Conroy, Daniel Ogabiela
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引用次数: 9

摘要

本研究估计了尼日利亚中部地带四个州(贝努埃、卡杜纳、纳萨拉瓦和高原)的暴力冲突与家庭收入之间的关系,在这些州,农民和牧民经常因进入农田、牧区、牲畜运输路线以及牲畜和家庭的供水点而发生冲突。虽然强度相对较低,但这种形式的暴力是普遍的、持续的,而且可以说其发生率在增加。我们从2014年9月进行的一项原始家庭调查中获得了收入和家庭层面暴力暴露的数据。采用负二项工具变量模型,我们发现暴力与家庭收入之间存在反比关系。如果在四个被研究的州中,与农牧民冲突相关的暴力减少到接近于零,收入可能会比目前水平增加64%到210%。累积起来,我们发现放弃的收入占研究地区官方国内生产总值的10.2%。与其他研究中测量的冲突成本相比,这一比例很高,即使我们的研究只考虑了微观经济成本。在纳入对非正规经济规模的估计后,农牧民冲突的微观经济成本约占整体经济的2.9%。
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The Effect of Farmer-Pastoralist Violence on Income: New Survey Evidence from Nigeria’s Middle Belt States
This study estimates the relationship between violent conflict and household income in four states of Nigeria’s Middle Belt region (Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau) where farmers and pastoralists routinely clash over access to farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and water points for animals and households. Although relatively low in intensity, this form of violence is widespread, persistent, and arguably increasing in its incidence. We obtained data on income and household-level violence exposure from an original household survey administered in September 2014. Employing a negative binomial instrumental variables model, we find an inverse relation between violence and household incomes. Incomes could be increased by between 64 to 210 percent of current levels if violence related to farmer-pastoralist conflict in the four study states were reduced to near-zero. Cumulatively, we find that forgone income represents 10.2 percent of the combined official state domestic product in the study area. This is high when compared to the costs of conflict measured in other studies, even as our study takes account only of microeconomic costs. After incorporating an estimate of the size of the informal economy, the microeconomic cost of farmer-pastoralist conflict to the total economy is approximately 2.9 percent.
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